Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Braves vs. Padres odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for today’s game. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Braves vs. Padres Odds

Today, the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres will play the third game of a four game weekend set at Petco Park. The Padres trounced the Braves by a final score of 12-1 on Thursday, but Atlanta rebounded for a 5-2 victory on Friday evening. This afternoon, Ian Anderson will take the hill for the Braves. The Padres will counter with Nick Martinez. Oddsmakers anticipate the Astros coming away with a victory in this one, pricing them as -150 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbook for this matchup.

Atlanta Braves

In our Braves preseason preview, we mentioned that Ian Anderson took a noticeable step backwards in 2021, despite bolstering his reputation with strong outings in the postseason. In Anderson’s first turn through the rotation in 2022, he lasted only 2.2 innings against the Cincinnati Reds–allowing 5 earned runs, 5 walks, and striking-out only one batter. Anderson’s command issues could present issues once again today against a Padres lineup that has some of the best plate discipline in baseball. Anderson was also significantly worse when pitching on the road last year, posting a 4.54 FIP away from Truist Park compared to a 3.66 FIP at home.

Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Atlanta ranked 6th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 13th in walk rate, 23rd in strikeout percentage, and 11th in wRC+ at the plate. Ronald Acuna remains absent from this lineup on Saturday as he recovers from a devastating knee injury suffered last summer. This lineup has scored 3 runs or less in six of their first nine contests to start the new year. The Braves could struggle to push runs across the plate once again on Saturday.

A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, and Kenley Jansen have each pitched twice in the last three days–making their availability for this afternoon uncertain, especially after an abbreviated Spring Training. Will Smith and Collin McHugh figure to handle higher leverage situations if any of the aforementioned names are unable to go today.

San Diego Padres

Nick Martinez was not projected for a rotation spot with the Padres to begin the season, but Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell ending up on the injured list opened up an opportunity for the veteran hurler. Martinez posted a 4.77 ERA and a 5.36 FIP across his first four big-league seasons before spending half of a decade overseas. Returning to the MLB last week, Martinez was extremely impressive in 5.0 innings against a tough San Francisco Giants lineup, allowing only one earned run while striking-out six batters. Bettors should expect another strong performance from him today.

Against right-handed pitching, in 2021, the Padres ranked 12th in OPS, 14th in ISO, 6th in walk-rate, 5th in strikeout percentage, and 12th in wRC+ at the dish. Fernando Tatis Jr. is still on the injured list, but this is still a lineup capable of putting runs on the board in the proper context. San Diego’s offensive attack is particularly well-equipped to have strong at-bats today against Anderson–a pitcher with command issues, who struggled to miss bats his last time out. 

The Padres used Robert Suarez, Pierce Johnson, and Dinelson Lamet for 27 pitches or more yesterday, likely making them last-resort options today. However, Taylor Rogers has not pitched since Monday, so he should be available if a save situation arises.