Atlanta Braves vs. Texas Rangers: Free MLB Betting Pick and Prediction (4/30/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Braves vs. Rangers odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for Saturday night’s game. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code for a $1000 free bet.

Braves vs. Rangers Odds

Tonight, the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers will play the second of three games in their weekend series at Globe Life Field. The Braves emerged victorious on Friday night by a final score of 6-3 behind a strong outing from Ian Anderson. On Saturday, Atlanta will hand the ball to Bryce Elder, who will be opposed by Dane Dunning. Oddsmakers anticipate a tightly-contested affair, pricing this game at a -108 pick’em on the market as of this morning.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elder has a 4.30 ERA, 5.82 xERA, and a 5.83 FIP through his first three big-league turns in the rotation. However, he has been far from a catastrophe on the mound. He gave up only three earned runs against the Washington Nationals, two earned runs against the San Diego Padres, and two earned runs against the Miami Marlins–keeping Atlanta competitive in each of these contests. The more pressing concern is the fact that he has walked 11 batters across his last nine innings of work. Still, the Padres and Marlins both rank in the top-six in walk-rate against right-handed pitching this year. Today’s opponent, the Rangers, rank only 25th in walk-rate against righties so far in 2022. If Elder can find a way to limit the free passes today, he should be able to keep Texas from doing too much damage, especially considering his 76th percentile average exit velocity. 

Atlanta’s offense has not been particularly strong to begin the campaign–ranking 10th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 12th in walk-rate, and 22nd in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching through 561 plate appearances. However, the early return of Ronald Acuna Jr. to the lineup will unquestionably help improve those numbers. Acuna went 1-for-5 with two stolen bases in his return to action on Thursday. He was held out of action on Friday, but should slot back into the leadoff position on Saturday. 

Predictably, Atlanta’s bullpen has been excellent to begin the year–ranking 5th in the league with a 3.00 FIP. Yet, there are some usage concerns to report ahead of first pitch this evening. Jesse Chavez and A.J. Minter have each thrown two of the last three days. Kenley Jansen, Tyler Matzek, and Will Smith have each thrown in three of the last four days. Spencer Strider could be asked to cover a few innings in long-relief this evening to alleviate some of the strain on an extremely taxed arm barn.

Texas Rangers

A quick look at Dane Dunning’s surface level numbers will never give a bettor confidence to wager on the Rangers. Dunning enters play with a 4.91 ERA, 5.10 xERA, and a 4.63 FIP through four turns in the rotation. Yet, he has once again been much better at home than on the road. In 2021, Dunning had a 2.72 FIP, 25.7 strikeout percentage, 6.9 percent walk-rate, and a 1.25 WHIP at Globe Life Field, but a 5.56 FIP, 18.3 strikeout percentage, 10.2 percent walk-rate, and a 1.68 WHIP on the road. His outings often get off to poor starts, evident from his 7.92 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in the first inning last year. Nevertheless, this is a good spot to back Dunning if bettors can stomach what is likely to be an early deficit.

As if trusting Dunning was not difficult enough, bettors will also need to trust a Texas lineup that ranks 29th in OPS and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching so far in 2022. There is reason to be optimistic if the Rangers once again stack Kole Calhoun and Corey Seager in the top-three spots in the batting order against Elder, who struggles mightily against left-handed hitters. However, this is still a lineup with plenty of weaknesses.

The Rangers went with a bullpen game in the series opener, using Garrett Richards, Albert Abreu, Brock Burke, and Kolby Allard for at least 22 pitches each. Still, the majority of Texas’ late-inning relievers remain fresh for the rest of the weekend. Matt Bush, Joe Barlow, Matt Moore, and John King have each thrown 30 pitches or less across the last four days.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Saturday

Though it is unlikely to be comfortable, the Rangers are the better option here for bettors targeting the first five innings of the game. Dunning typically has a rough first frame, but then settles into a nice groove when pitching at home. Elder has experienced significant command issues, which are likely to manifest once again on Saturday. If Texas can push across a few runs offensively, this is a ticket that has a good chance to cash.

• PICK: Rangers ML – F5 @ -120