Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction (5/24/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida delivers a free MLB pick and prediction in this Brewers vs. Padres betting preview. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 free bet today!

Brewers vs. Padres Odds

On Tuesday evening, the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres will continue a three-game set at Petco Park. In the series opener, the Padres emerged victorious in extra innings by a final score of 3-2. Tonight, Milwaukee will look to get back in the win column, playing behind Corbin Burnes. San Diego will counter with Blake Snell. Oddsmakers anticipate the Brewers securing a win in this spot, pricing them as -134 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup

Milwaukee Brewers

Despite an uncharacteristically poor outing in his most recent start against the Atlanta Braves, Corbin Burnes owns a 2.26 ERA, 3.10 xERA, and a 3.42 FIP through eight turns in the rotation in 2022. Following a 2021 National League Cy Young award, Burnes has once again been elite–ranking in the 89th percentile in strikeout percentage, 90th percentile in walk percentage, 98th percentile in whiff percentage, 92nd percentile in chase rate, and the 68th percentile in xwOBA. He has no discernable weaknesses, with strong numbers against both right- and left-handed batters. Expect a bounce-back performance from Burnes this evening.

Against left-handed pitching this season, Milwaukee ranks 17th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 11th in walk percentage, and 19th in strikeout percentage. Though these are not eye-popping numbers, neither are they especially poor. The Brewers started seven right-handed batters this past weekend against lefty, Patrick Corbin. A similar lineup could create more than a few advantageous matchups in the early portion of this contest against Snell.

Earlier this morning, Manager Craig Counsell announced that Josh Hader is away from the team, staying at home with his wife, who is dealing with pregnancy complications. This news shifts the burden of late-inning run prevention to Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger–neither of whom have been particularly strong in 2022. Further, both Williams and Boxberger appeared in yesterday’s contest, making fatigue a potential concern in the late innings on Tuesday for this unit.

San Diego Padres

In Blake Snell’s first MLB start of the 2022 campaign, he lasted only 3.2 innings, surrendering 3 earned runs and walking three batters in a loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. The poor performance was not the positive start that Friars’ fans were hoping for after Snell struggled to a 4.20 ERA, 4.86 xERA, and a 3.82 FIP in 27 outings in 2021. In our preseason preview of Snell, we mentioned that the key to renewed success on the mound could be unlocked by increasing usage of his curveball. Unfortunately, he threw the offering only 9.7 percent of the time against the Phillies, which was actually less than his 14.0 usage of the pitch last year. Snell will continue struggling mightily against right-handed batters until he figures out that he needs to throw his curveball more often in those situations.

San Diego seemingly broke-out of their offensive skid over the weekend, scoring 20 runs in three games against the San Francisco Giants. However, a considerable amount of their damage came against southpaws. On the year, the Padres ranks only 25th in OPS, 28th in ISO, 7th in walk percentage, and 15th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. Facing a pitcher who rarely walks opposing hitters, the main strength of this offensive attack could be neutralized. Do not expect an abundance of offensive support for Snell in this one.

Across the last 30 days, San Diego’s relief corps ranks 11th in baseball, with a 3.68 FIP. Taylor Rogers, Robert Suarez, Nabil Crismatt, Luis Garcia, and Tim Hill each appeared in yesterday’s victory–making fatigue a concern if they are forced into action for the second consecutive contest. However, each of these relievers were rested on Sunday, meaning that they should be available if needed in this one.

Brewers-Padres MLB Pick Today

Burnes had a rough third inning in his most recent outing, but was otherwise excellent against the Braves–as he has been all season. Facing one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, Burnes should thrive this evening. If Milwaukee loads up on right-handed batters against Snell in this one, the Brewers’ bats should do enough to put this group in position to earn a win tonight. 

• PICK: Brewers ML (-130)