Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Picks and Predictions (4/24/22)

MLB expert Nick Galaida breaks down Brewers vs. Phillies odds, picks and predictions for today — Sunday, April 24. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 risk-free bet.

Brewers vs. Phillies Odds

Tonight, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies will conclude a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia emerged victorious on Friday by a final score of 4-2 thanks to an 8th inning rally against Aaron Ashby. Milwaukee tagged Zack Wheeler for four runs yesterday en route to a 5-3 win. In the rubber match, the Brewers will hand the ball to Eric Lauer, who will be opposed by Aaron Nola. Oddsmakers anticipate the Phillies securing a series win this evening, pricing them as -160 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers

In his first three big-league campaigns, Eric Lauer compiled a 4.75 ERA and a 4.43 FIP. He was much better in 2021, with a 3.19 ERA, 3.87 xERA, and a 4.04 FIP. Notably, he posted a career-best 23.9 strikeout percentage and a 1.14 WHIP across 118.2 innings spanning 24 appearances, including 20 starts. Increased usage of his curveball and changeup seemed to be the main underlying cause of the newfound success. Opposing hitters posted a putrid .158 wOBA against his curveball and a .259 wOBA against his changeup in 2021.

Last season, the Brewers were a mediocre lineup against right-handed pitching, ranking 15th in OPS, 16th in ISO, 7th in walk-rate, 19th in strikeout percentage, and 19th in wRC+. The early returns in 2022 suggest that Milwaukee will have similar results again this summer. Through their first 374 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year, this lineup ranks 14th in OPS, 14th in ISO, 16th in walk-rate, 25th in strikeout percentage, and 18th in wRC+. It is unsurprising that the Brewers have yet to score more than six runs in a game through their first 15 contests.

Manager Craig Counsell used Trevor Gott, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader to secure yesterday’s victory. Only Brad Boxberger and Aaron Ashby pitched in relief on Friday. Everyone from this unit should be available as needed this evening, with little concern of fatigue playing a role in performance.

Philadelphia Phillies

Only once in Aaron Nola’s first seven big-league campaigns has he turned in worse than a 3.35 xERA for a season. Only once since his rookie season has he finished the year with worse than a 3.37 FIP. However, the path to those results is far from linear. Nola has performed significantly better when pitching at home compared to the road in each season since the start of 2017. The results have only become more pronounced in recent years, with Nola having posted a FIP over a full run better at Citizens Bank Park in each of the last three seasons. 

Against left-handed pitching so far this season, the Phillies rank 1st in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 7th in walk-rate, 11th in strikeout percentage, and 2nd in wRC+. Philadelphia scored two runs off of Kyle Freeland earlier in the week. They scored eight runs in the first two innings against Trevor Rogers last week in Miami. During the opening week of the season, Philadelphia scored four runs off of Cole Irvin, chasing him from the ballgame in the 6th inning. This is a dangerous lineup against southpaws, with few easy at-bats for opposing pitchers.

Christopher Sanchez could be unavailable this evening after throwing 30 pitches yesterday. Andrew Bellatti and James Norwood each threw 13 offerings on Saturday as well, but the entire rest of this unit has not pitched since Friday. Everyone should be available as needed in this one.

MLB Betting Pick Today

The Phillies have the better starting pitcher and the better offensive attack in this matchup. Though this play is juiced, it should be well-worth the price. Expect Aaron Nola to have a strong outing tonight, and for the bats to do enough to secure a victory. Take Philadelphia in this spot.

• PICK: Phillies ML (-160)