2022 Broncos Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Since winning Super Bowl 50 against the Carolina Panthers, the Denver Broncos have managed only one winning season, and only once have they managed to finish higher than third place in the AFC West division standings. Inconsistent play from a revolving door of quarterbacks, including Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Teddy Bridgewater have been the main issue for this franchise, prompting a major trade this offseason to acquire Super Bowl winning signal caller, Russell Wilson.

Expectations are understandably high for the Broncos in 2022, but let’s take a look at this team unit-by-unit to see if this roster is capable of making it back to the postseason for the first time in nearly a decade.

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Quarterback

Depth Chart: Russell Wilson, Brett Rypien, Josh Johnson

Prior to an injury sidelining Wilson from Week 6 to Week 8 last year, Russell Wilson was Pro Football Focus’ second-highest graded quarterback. However, he struggled in his return to action, leading the Seahawks to only a 4-5 record over the final two-and-a-half months of the regular season. 

Still, even the worst version of Wilson is likely to be an upgrade for a Denver offense that suffered acutely from poor quarterback play in 2021. Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock combined for only 20 touchdowns and less than 4,000 passing yards last fall en route to a disappointing 7-10 campaign.

In each of the last five seasons, Wilson has posted a better than league average passer rating from a clean pocket, when under pressure, and against the blitz. At 33 years old, the veteran quarterback was still capable of making every throw on the football field in 2021, with a better than league average passer rating on throws of all depths of target beyond the line of scrimmage. Denver has plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the passing attack with Wilson under center.

Running Back

Depth Chart: Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Mike Boone, Damarea Crockett

Last fall, Melvin Gordon paced this backfield with 918 rushing yards on 203 attempts, scoring eight times in the process. Javonte Williams also carried the ball 203 times, totaling 903 rushing yards and four scores on the ground. The 4.5 yards-per-carry as a team was particularly impressive, considering the poor run-blocking offensive line and the fact that opposing teams were frequently able to stack the box against inferior quarterbacks. Heading into 2022, the poor run-blocking offensive line remains, but it is hard to see anything but ascension for this unit with Russell Wilson at quarterback. A competent passing attack could open up more running lanes for both Gordon and Williams this fall.

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Albert Okwuegbunam

Courtland Sutton led the Broncos with 776 receiving yards in 2021, catching only two touchdowns. It was a disappointing campaign for Sutton, who had sky-high expectations following his 2019 campaign, during which he secured 72 receptions for 1,112 receiving yards and six touchdowns. However, he could be the primary beneficiary of improved quarterback play in 2022. It is entirely possible that he posts top-20 wide receiver numbers this fall with Wilson throwing him the ball. 

Jerry Jeudy had a strong rookie season in 2020, amassing 856 receiving yards. Last fall, he experienced major regression, with only 38 catches, 467 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. He played in only 10 games due to injury, but was far from elite even when he was on the field – failing to top 60 receiving yards in all but one of his final seven contests. The former first round pick has plenty of potential, but he will need to prove himself to fans and bettors in 2022.

Tim Patrick finished last year with the highest Pro Football Focus grade of any receiver on the Denver roster, playing both in the slot and out-wide. He finished second on the team with 734 receiving yards – only 42 yards less than Sutton, despite Sutton receiving 13 more targets and playing an extra game. If Patrick can replicate his 2021 performance, and Sutton and Jeudy can return to their peak form – this could be one of the best passing attacks in football.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Garett Bolles, Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry III. Graham Glasgow, Billy Turner

In recent years, Russell Wilson has been one of the most-sacked quarterbacks in the entire league, which was part of the reason that Wilson ended up leaving Seattle. He will not have the benefit of an elite offensive line in 2022, but this Denver unit is surely going to be an upgrade from what he has been used to across the last few seasons.

Garett Bolles has been a stalwart at left tackle since entering the league as a first round pick in 2017. He is borderline elite as a pass-blocker and has a league average floor as a run-blocker. Dalton Risner has been similarly excellent as a pass-blocker, finishing with the 12th-best pass-blocking grade at the tackle position in the NFL during the 2021 season, per Pro Football Focus. Still, his deficiencies in the run game are worth noting. Lloyd Cushenberry III was a liability in his rookie campaign, but took a notable leap forward as a sophomore, grading as one of the best pass-blocking centers in football. If he can improve in the run game, the former 3rd round draft pick has the potential to be elite. Quinn Meinerz was selected in the 3rd round of the 2021 draft, and finished his first year as a professional with above-average grades in both the run game and as a pass-protector. If he takes a leap forward in 2022, this offensive line could go from good to great. Billy Turner will start at right tackle for this group, giving the Broncos one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Yet, consistent with the rest of this unit, Turner struggles in the run game. 

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: D.J. Jones, Mike Purcell, Dre’Mont Jones

In 2021, the Broncos were mediocre at getting after the quarterback, finishing 18th in sacks per pass attempt, per NFL GSIS, and 14th in opponent rush yards per play. Adding D.J. Jones during the offseason should help Denver improve against the run. Last year, Jones graded 22nd out of 135 players at his position in run defense, per Pro Football Focus. Mike Purcell was similarly strong against the run, but failed to record a sack in 13 games played. Dre’Mont Jones finished second on the team in sacks last fall, his second consecutive season with at least 5.5 sacks. Overall, this unit should be at least league average against both the run and the pass in 2022.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Bradley Chubb, Jonas Griffith, Josey Jewell, Randy Gregory

When Bradley Chubb was selected with the fifth overall selection in the 2018 draft, he was expected to be a difference-maker for this defense. As a rookie, he impressed with 12 sacks and a pair of forced fumbles, but he was limited to only one sack in four contests during his sophomore campaign. In his third year, he returned to form, compiling 7.5 sacks in 14 games, but disappointed in 2021 – failing to record a single sack in seven games. The Broncos defense could benefit tremendously in 2022 if Chubb’s every-other-year of stardom continues this fall. Randy Gregory spent each of his first four NFL seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, where he posted 16.5 sacks and eight forced fumbles in 38 games played. His health is always a concern, having never played more than 14 games in a season, including missing all of 2019. Still, when he is on the field, the former second round draft pick is a major contributor. Josey Jewell could be the deciding factor as to whether this unit ends up being good or great in 2022. A fourth-round pick from the 2018 class, Jewell has shown improvement with each new season during his NFL tenure. Another step forward from him could make this one of the best linebacker corps in the league, especially if he can improve against the run. Jonas Griffith is a depth piece that will hopefully not end up having to play every down for this group.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Ronald Darby, Kareem Jackson, Justin Simmons, Pat Surtain II

Per Pro Football Focus, Pat Surtain II did not allow more than 76 yards in any single game during his rookie season – establishing himself as a bonafide star, and the clear leader of this unit. The 2021 first round draft pick out of Alabama is only likely to get better in year two. Ronald Darby has, at times, been close to elite during his NFL career. At other times, he has been far worse than league average. Last season, he finished 79th out of 115 cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus’ coverage grading system. A return to his 2020 form could create one of the stronger cornerback tandems in football. 

Justin Simmons has firmly entrenched himself as one of the better safeties in the league, with three strong seasons in a row. He is adept both in coverage and in the run game, and figures to have another productive campaign in 2022. Kareem Jackson was one of the worst safeties in the league last fall, but there is some hope that 2021 was simply a down year. Jackson was elite from 2018 to 2020 in all phases of the game. At 34 years old, it is possible that age has finally caught up with him, but if he has one more productive year – Denver could have one of the best secondary units in the AFC.

2022 Outlook

The Broncos were 7-6 with Teddy Bridgewater under center last season, before going 0-4 with Drew Lock to end the year. Lacking a plus-talent at quarterback, Denver went only 1-5 in games decided by one score or less, which was the third-worst one-score-game winning percentage in the entire league. The addition of Russell Wilson should add at least one or two wins in such situations this fall. The Broncos also ranked 27th in fumble recovery rate and 28th in injury luck – both luck metrics that should see some positive regression in 2022. 

Denver returns a strong running back tandem and boasts one of the more talented wide receiver rooms in the league. The offensive line should be excellent in pass protection, and at least serviceable in the run game. If Bradley Chubb can stay healthy, the defense should take a noticeable step forward compared to 2021. If Ronald Darby and Kareem Jackson can have bounce-back seasons in the secondary, this is one of the most complete rosters in the NFL.

There are a lot of “if this happens” with the Broncos in 2022, leaving them with one of the wider range of potential outcomes this fall. If looking for a team to go from worst-to-first, Wilson and company certainly have the potential to get there. This group should have a floor of nine wins, with 11 or 12 wins being a realistic projection if they experience better luck than they did in 2021.

PICK: Denver Broncos o10 wins (+105)