Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Preview: Odds, Pick and Prediction (4/29/22)

Looking for free MLB picks? Check out this Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals preview, as Nick Galaida breaks down odds and predictions for Friday night. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance, and check out our Arizona sports betting page for more offers!

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds

Tonight, the Arizona Cardinals and the St. Louis Cardinals will begin a three-game set at Busch Stadium. Entering play, St. Louis is one game behind the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the National League Central division. Arizona is currently in the cellar of the National League West, 5.5 games behind the division-leading San Francisco Giants. Oddsmakers anticipate a comfortable victory for St. Louis in this one, pricing them as -200 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at online sportsbooks for this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Madison Bumgarner owns a sterling 1.00 ERA through his first three turns in the rotation in 2022, but a 3.61 xERA and a 4.01 FIP portend regression sooner rather than later. Regression could happen as soon as this evening against a dangerous St. Louis lineup featuring nine right-handed hitters. In 2021, Bumgarner posted a 4.50 FIP, 5.03 xFIP, and a 1.23 WHIP against righties. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Bumgarner had a ghastly 8.42 FIP, 6.74 xFIP, and a 1.57 WHIP against right-handed batters. Not since 2017 has Bumgarner finished the year with better than a 4.29 FIP against righties. This is a difficult matchup for the veteran southpaw.

Through their first 544 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year, the Diamondbacks rank 24th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 3rd in walk-rate, and 29th in strikeout percentage. Even a patient approach at the plate is unlikely to yield much success against Wainwright, who has some of the best command in the game. 

Arizona’s bullpen is not in great shape either, entering the weekend. Ian Kennedy and Mark Melancon have each thrown in two of the last three days. Taylor Widener and Tyler Holton each threw 24 pitches or more on Thursday. On top of fatigue issues, there are legitimate talent concerns for a unit that ranks 27th in the league in bullpen FIP through their first 20 contests.

St. louis Cardinals

Adam Wainwright has been tagged for four earned runs twice in three starts on the road in 2022, but he was excellent in his lone start at Busch Stadium–delivering six innings of shutout baseball against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Though the Pirates are far from an elite offense, they are a comparable offense to the Diamondbacks, who rank three spots worse than Pittsburgh in OPS against right-handed pitching this year. Wainwright has been significantly better when pitching at home in each full season since 2016. In 2021, the veteran hurler compiled a 3.33 FIP and a 1.01 WHIP in 101.1 innings at his home ballpark.

The Cardinals are a mediocre offense overall, but they are undeniably elite against left-handed pitching. In 138 plate appearances so far in 2022, this lineup ranks 1st in OPS, 1st in ISO, 30th in walk-rate, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. Facing an aging left-handed starter this evening, who struggles against right-handed hitting–this is another great spot for this offense to do damage.

Nick Wittgren has thrown in two of the last three days, but there are no other notable usage concerns to mention here. Manager Oliver Marmol should have all of his top relief weapons available as needed on Friday.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Pick 

In this matchup, St. Louis has the better offense, the better starting pitcher, and the better bullpen. Having nine right-handed bats in the lineup is likely to lead to plenty of traffic on the basepaths against Bumgarner. If Wainwright can deliver another strong outing at home, this could be a sweat-free cash for bettors.

• PICK: Cardinals (-1.5) +115, BetMGM