Betting The NBA Playoffs: Celtics-Bucks, Grizzlies-Warriors Expert Picks and Predictions

After a perfect night, ScoresAndOdds sports betting analyst Derek Farnsworth is back with more best bets and NBA playoff predictions for the Celtics vs. Bucks and Grizzlies vs. Warriors on Wednesday, May 11, 2022. Make sure to use our BetMGM bonus for a $1000 free NBA bet!

Let’s quickly recap last night’s games before getting into Wednesday’s two-game slate. I was surprised how much action was put on Philadelphia before Game 5. We even saw the spread come down to 2.5 points. The Heat had other ideas, as they jumped out to a big lead and never looked back. Jimmy Butler has been the best player in the series and it hasn’t been particularly close. As predicted, the role players for the Heat stepped up while the supporting cast for the Sixers really struggled. The Heat now have a 3-2 lead as the series shifts back to Philadelphia.

The Suns predictably bounced back in a big way in Game 5. They got off to a fairly slow start, but took a three-point lead into halftime and never looked back. They made a big run early in the third quarter and the Mavericks found themselves in a hole that was too big to climb out of. I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but role players generally play so much better at home than on the road and we saw that in both of Tuesday night’s games. 

We were 2-0 with the picks and if you were a premium subscriber to ScoresAndOdds, you got access to the new parlay strategy that I hinted at in yesterday’s article. The parlays were 4-0 and paid out handsomely. Let’s keep it rolling for tonight’s two-game slate. 

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Series: TIED 2-2

The Bucks were my pick to win this series and it was looking grim heading into the fourth quarter of Game 4. With 12 minutes to play in the game, they were down seven points and in serious danger of falling behind 3-1 in the series. They put up 43 points in the quarter and tied the series at two games apiece. We now have a best-of-three series for a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

The stats in the first four games tell a much different story than the 2-2 record in this series. The Celtics have a net rating of +5.4 and have shot the ball significantly better than the Bucks. It’s not all doom and gloom for Milwaukee, as they have won the battle on the glass and in the turnover department. Ultimately, I expect this series to come down to defense and the Celtics were far and away the best defensive team in basketball during the regular season. 

The Celtics have to feel a sense of relief after stealing home-court advantage back, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be ready for Game 5. They’ll have the Boston faithful at their side and will hopefully have Robert Williams back in the lineup. Even if he’s out, the Celtics have gotten solid production from Grant Williams and Derrick White at times in this series. The Bucks have essentially turned into a two-man show (a rather good one at that), while the Celtics have remained very balanced on both ends of the floor. 

While I wish the spread was a little lower, I am taking Boston to cover the 5.5 points at home. 

• ATS Pick: Boston -5.5

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Series: GSW 3-1

The Warriors played one of the worst games that I have ever seen this team play and they still managed to win Game 4 against the Grizzlies. I attribute their slow start to two things – first and most importantly, Steve Kerr tested positive for COVID and was a late scratch for Game 4. And second, the Warriors may have overlooked the Grizzlies since they were without Ja Morant. The Warriors were incredibly sloppy in the first three quarters. It looked and felt more like a preseason game than a second round playoff game.

Even after that bad outing, the Warriors have a chance to close out the series tonight in Memphis. Kerr will still be out for Golden State and it sounds like Morant is unlikely to play the rest of the postseason. Again, please don’t be one of those people on Twitter claiming the Grizzlies are better without Morant because they were 20-5 without him in the regular season. Did they look like a better team without him on Sunday night? Everyone with that take sure got quiet after the Warriors staged that fourth quarter comeback. 

Apologies, I’m not trying to get sidetracked here. As I’ve noted a few times, the Warriors have won a road game in 25 straight playoff series. We know they can win on the road. Mike Brown will have time to put together a game plan and time to prepare mentally for the head coaching duties for Game 5. While it wouldn’t surprise me to see Memphis pull out all the stops and force a Game 6, I keep going back to the fact that the Warriors beat them on Sunday night with their C+ game. Morant’s absence will really be felt if the Warriors can jump out to an early lead.

• ATS Pick: Golden State -3.5