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2022 Chargers Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Sat 9/10 5:53am PT

Last season, the Los Angeles Chargers finished a disappointing 9-8, failing to make the postseason for the seventh time in the last eight years. Justin Herbert was sensational, but questionable aggressiveness in key situations from Head Coach Brandon Staley, coupled with horrendous special teams kept this team from collecting more wins. The Chargers ranked 18th in the NFL in 2021, winning only 44 percent of their games decided by one score – including an overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18.

Yet, colossal underperformance last year has not cooled the market on this group heading into 2022. Entering the campaign, the Chargers are a popular Super Bowl pick, and are currently priced with the sixth-best odds to win the championship at most sportsbooks. Let’s evaluate this roster unit-by-unit to see if they will be able to justify the hype when they take the field

Quarterback

Depth Chart: Justin Herbert, Chase Daniel, Easton Stick, Brandon Peters

Few quarterbacks in the league possess more raw talent than Justin Herbert, who finished 2nd in the NFL in passing yards, 3rd in passing touchdowns, and 3rd in QBR in 2021. Still only 24 years old, the Oregon product excelled to a 108.1 passer rating on throws 20-plus yards from the line of scrimmage last fall, which far surpassed the league average 92.7 passer rating on such throws. Beyond electric deep balls and gaudy stat lines, Herbert’s next area of growth will be his decision-making. As a rookie, he threw 10 interceptions in only 15 games, and followed that number up with 15 interceptions in his sophomore campaign.

There is reason to believe that Herbert can improve dramatically in this area in his third year, judging by the fact that his turnover-worth-play percentage actually dropped from 2020 to 2021. Better luck on tipped passes paired with continued development as a young player creates the potential for an elite season from Herbert this fall.

Running Back

Depth Chart: Austin Ekeler, Isaiah Spiller, Joshua Kelley, Larry Rountree III

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett

Last fall, Keenan Allen was Justin Herbert’s most-targeted receiver on 3rd down, under pressure, against the blitz, and in the red zone. Consequently, he led the team with 106 receptions on 157 targets for 1,138 receiving yards – his fifth consecutive year with at least 992 receiving yards. Since 2017, Allen has played in 78-of-81 possible games, making him one of the most reliable and trustworthy options in an offense in the league. Expect another solid year of production from him in 2022.

Drafted with the seventh overall selection in 2017, Mike Williams has long been a burgeoning star for the Chargers. He seemed to finally be on his ascension in 2019, tallying his first 1,000 yard campaign, but regressed sharly in 2020 – posting only 756 receiving yards. He bounced-back in a big way in 2021, leading Los Angeles with 1,146 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Entering his sixth season, he has a chance to prove that he belongs in the conversation when talking about the best wide receivers in football.

Joshua Palmer carried a lot of hype as a rookie, but disappointed with only 33 catches and 353 receiving yards in 17 games. Though he has high-upside from a pure talent perspective, he remains buried as a clear third- or fourth-option in the Los Angeles passing attack, which limits his ceiling. 

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Rashawn Slater, Matt Feiler, Corey Linsley, Zion Johnson, Storm Norton

Rashawn Slater was outstanding in his first year as a professional, finishing as the 8th-highest graded tackle in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Drafted in the first round in 2021, Slater should be a dependable option to protect Herbert’s blind side again in 2022 and for the foreseeable future.

Matt Feiler was undrafted in 2014 out of Bloomsburg, but has solidified himself as one of the better offensive lineman in the league. His primary strength has always been as a run-blocker, but he has been good enough as a pass-blocker to finish better than the 50th percentile in each of his first five seasons. There is no reason to believe that anything will change this fall.

Corey Linsley is, arguably, the best center in the NFL. During the first eight years of his career, he has never finished lower than 17th in Pro Football Focus’ grading system, and has six times finished in the top-seven. He has elite high-end potential again in 2022, with one of the safest floors of any player at any position.

Looking to further bolster this unit in Herbert’s third season, Los Angeles spent a first round pick on Zion Johnson out of Boston College in this past summer’s draft. Johnson should be ready to make a positive impact from Day 1 as a starting guard in the NFL. Nearly all scouting reports commented on the fact that he has few, if any, major weaknesses coming into the league. 

If there is any potential weakness in this group, it is Trey Pipkins, who played only 149 snaps in 2021, and has been largely unimpressive since entering the league in 2019. Per Pro Football Focus, Pipkins allowed only three pressures on 76 pass-blocking snaps in his two spot starts last year, but it remains to be seen if he can be solid over the course of an entire season. 

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Jerry Tillery, Austin Johnson, Sebastian Joseph-Day

Jerry Tillery was drafted in the first round of Notre Dame in 2019, but it is becoming more doubtful by the day that he manages to secure employment beyond his rookie contract. He has been a liability as a run defender, and has failed to make a positive impact as a pass rusher in any of his first three seasons. It is likely that he struggles mightily again in 2022.

Austin Johnson has been better than Tillery in recent years, but he has never been much better than mediocre during his six seasons in the NFL. Johnson has been ineffectual against the run during his career, and as a pass-rusher, having never recorded more than 3.5 sacks in a single campaign.

Sebastian Joseph-Day seemed poised for a breakout after a strong sophomore season, but he played in only seven games for the Los Angeles Rams in 2021. He still managed a career-high three sacks, and could be a strong piece for this fall if he can stay healthy.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Joey Bosa, Kyle Van Noy, Drue Tranquill, Khalil Mack

In 2021, the Chargers ranked only 20th in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt, despite Joey Bosa’s 10.5 sacks. In the offseason, the front office made it a priority to improve their pass-rush ability, which led to trading a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Chicago Bears for Khalil Mack. Prior to 2021, during which Mack played only seven games, he had a streak of six consecutive seasons with at least 8.5 sacks, including four seasons with 10-plus quarterback takedowns. If healthy, Bosa and Mack could be the most feared pass-rushing duo in the entire league.

Kyle Van Noy will also be making his Los Angeles debut in Week 1, following stints with the Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, and Miami Dolphins during the first eight years of his career. Van Noy’s production as a run defender has fallen-off in recent years, but he should be one of the better coverage linebackers in the league. Drue Tranquill has a similarly high-ceiling in coverage, but leaves much to be desired as a run defender and as a pass rusher.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Asante Samuel Jr., Derwin James., Nasir Adderley, J.C. Jackson

Per Pro Football Focus, the Chargers’ secondary finished 21st in coverage grade as a team in 2021. During the offseason, the front office added J.C. Jackson, who is unquestionably one of the best cornerbacks in football. They also added Bryce Callahan, who has been one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league in recent years. 

The Chargers also have one of the better safety tandems in the NFL, with Nasir Adderley and Derwin James over-the-top. Adderley finally took a noticeable step forward in production last fall, following an underwhelming first two years out of Delaware. James has been elite since entering the league out of Florida State in 2018 as a first-round draft pick. If this unit can stay healthy, they have the potential to be one of the most dynamic no-fly-zones in the league.

2022 Outlook

There are few, if any, teams in the National Football League with more talent than the Chargers heading into 2022. This roster boasts a quarterback with elite upside entering his third season, a dynamic running back room, with two high-end wide receivers, a strong offensive line, a formidable pass-rush, and the potential for elite play in the secondary. 

In 2021, Los Angeles suffered from the 7th-worst fumble recovery percentage in the league, and ranked 22nd in opponent field goal percentage – both luck metrics that have a way of regression to the mean from year-to-year. Considering that the Chargers won nine games in 2020, despite poor luck, abysmal special teams, and an overzealous head coach – it seems reasonable to think they can improve by at least one win this fall if they can learn from a few things. The Chargers have upgraded at key positions, and still have a number of young players that are capable of growing into sensational talents. The over is the smart way to go on the futures market with this team.

PICK: Los Angeles Chargers o10 wins (-140)

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