Chicago Cubs Futures Odds and 2022 Pitching Predictions

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida looks at the Chicago Cubs’ pitching staff and futures odds ahead of Opening Day. Make sure to claim $2000 of risk-free bets with our PointsBet promo code.

Chicago Cubs Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 75.5 Wins (-106)
• Best Regular Season Record: +12000
• Division Winner: +1100
• To Make the Playoffs: +650
• National League Winner: +6000
• World Series Champion: +13000

Cubs Pitching Preview

Kyle Hendricks (+15000)

Kyle Hendricks still possesses elite command and a rare ability to induce weak contact, but he is far from a complete pitcher on the mound. Prior to the trade deadline in 2021, Hendricks had a 3.71 ERA and a 4.68 FIP. After the trade deadline, Hendricks posted a 7.39 ERA and a 5.42 FIP. He no longer has any pitches that grade remotely close to elite. Last summer, hitters posted a .298 wOBA against his curveball, .315 wOBA against his changeup, .352 wOBA against his sinker, and a .440 wOBA against his fastball. By the end of last season, his curveball became almost unusable. Hendricks will once again take his place as the de facto ace in this rotation, but the title is nominal and nothing else.

Hendricks’ NL Cy Young odds are +10000 on MGM Sportsbook, but you can get +15000 on Caesars.

Alec Mills

Entering 2022, Alec Mills owns one career no-hitter, a 4.60 ERA and a 4.56 FIP. In 2021, he tossed 119.0 innings, during which he delivered a 5.07 ERA, 4.79 xERA, and a 4.49 FIP. He ranked in only the 25th percentile in xwOBA, 25th percentile in xERA, 9th percentile in strikeout rate, as well as registering far worse than league average in velocity and spin rates. Mills is primarily a ground-ball pitcher, but that is not necessarily a recipe for success with a league average defense playing behind him. The ceiling is extremely low for Mills, whose best case scenario is experiencing good fortune on balls in play. When he is not getting lucky, he is not likely to look very good on the mound. There is a reason that he does not even have odds listed for him to win the Cy Young.

Marcus Stroman (+10000)

In 2021, Marcus Stroman posted the best full season ERA (3.02) and FIP (3.49) of his entire career while throwing 179.0 innings for the New York Mets. He also turned in a career-best strikeout- (21.6%) and walk percentage (6.0%), not to mention a new best in WHIP (1.15). Stroman has been better than league average in each campaign since debuting in 2014, but a decrease in sinker usage in favor of more sliders certainly seemed to pay dividends last summer. Stroman managed to generate a 33.9 percent swing-and-miss rate or better on his split finger, slider, fastball, and curveball. It is not often that we see a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 years old learn new tricks, but Stroman has the potential to continue getting better if he can better optimize his pitch usage going forward. At minimum, he will be an incredibly reliable middle-of-the-rotation piece for the Chicago Cubs in 2022. 

Drew Smyly

In 2019, Drew Smyly posted a 6.24 ERA, 5.94 xERA, and a 6.26 FIP in 114.0 innings. Seemingly out of nowhere, Smyly was outstanding for the San Francisco Giants in 2020 during the pandemic-shortened season, with a 3.42 ERA, 3.63 xERA, and a 2.01 FIP. In 2021, Smyly predictably regressed over a larger sample size, to a 4.48 ERA, 5.06 xERA, and a 5.11 FIP. He finished the regular season ranked in the 19th percentile in wOBA, 19th percentile in xERA, 33rd percentile in strikeout percentage, and much worse than league average in both velocity and spin rates. Smyly’s best pitch is unquestionably his curveball, but even that pitch is far from elite. Chicago will hope to get close to league average production out of the veteran hurler, but it would not be surprising to see much worse than that in 2022.

Justin Steele

Justin Steele was pedestrian, at best, as a rookie, with a 4.26 ERA, 4.04 xERA, and a 5.52 FIP. He posted a mediocre 23.8 strikeout percentage against a poor 10.9 percent walk-rate. Still, he did a decent job limiting hard contact, and ended up ranking in the 54th percentile in xwOBA and the 82nd percentile in barrel percentage by the end of the season. Steele possesses a mid-90s fastball that too often finds the middle of the plate, a sinker, slider, and a curveball as his four primary pitches. As a rookie, his curveball was unquestionably his best offering–holding opposing hitters to a dreadful .238 wOBA. Steele’s profile could see him better suited for a relief role in the long-term, but the starting pitching deprived Cubs seem willing to give him an opportunity as a starter before making a final decision. Steele is a former 5th round draft selection, so there is upside here that may not have manifested in 2021. 

Bullpen

In 2021, the Cubs bullpen ranked 22nd in FIP (4.48), 14th in xFIP (4.26), 5th in strikeout percentage (25.9%), 28th in walk-rate (11.3%), and 20th in WHIP (1.34).