Chicago White Sox Pitching Preview and AL CY Young Odds

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida is here to preview each team’s pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2022 MLB season. If you’re a Chicago White Sox fan, find out more about Illinois sports betting and check out all of the MLB futures odds before Opening Day!

Chicago White Sox 2022 Starting Rotation

White Sox Cy Young Odds

Lucas Giolito (+1100)

Each of the last three seasons, Lucas Giolito has proven himself capable of being significantly better than league average, albeit not elite. In 2022, it is likely that Giolito will post his fourth consecutive year of strong peripherals if he can continue to keep his walk-rate below 10.0 percent. 

Priced at +1100 to win the Cy Young at both Draftkings and Caesars sportsbooks, only three American League pitchers carry shorter odds than the White Sox ace.

Though Giolito ranked in the 66th percentile or better last season in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, walk-rate, and whiff percentage – this seems like a poor preseason wager. A former #16 overall draft selection, Giolito has been great, but not elite throughout his career. The most likely outcome for Giolito is another solidly above average season in which he garners a few Cy Young votes, but not enough to win the award.  

Lance Lynn (+2500)

Though there seems to be a perception that Lance Lynn has only recently emerged as a front-of-the-rotation piece in the big leagues, he has posted a FIP better than league average in nine of his 10 MLB campaigns. Lynn does not do anything at an elite level, but he has made 28 starts or more in each season since 2012 (not counting the truncated 2020 year in which only 60 regular season games were played).

One of the most likable pitchers in Major League Baseball, Lynn is an extremely valuable member of the White Sox rotation, but unlikely to contend for the Cy Young award. He lacks elite swing and miss stuff, but does an incredible job limiting hard contact from opposing batters–ranking in the 90th percentile or better in both xBA and xSLG in 2021. Expect another strong season from Lynn, but not an award winning season.

Dylan Cease (+3000)

Dylan Cease was arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball in 2020, posting a 6.66 xERA and a 6.36 FIP. However, reports that he worked with a new pitching coach during the subsequent offseason turned him into a dependable rotation piece for the White Sox in 2021–turning in a 3.68 xERA and a 3.41 FIP last summer. His whiff percentage skyrocketed nearly 10 percent compared to 2020, resulting in a career best 31.9 strikeout percentage and 9.6 percent walk-rate. Cease has the potential to be even better in 2022 if he can further improve his command. 

Cease has only one respectable campaign under his belt during his three-year career, but he perfectly fits the mold for breakout star on the mound. Last year, he nearly doubled his strikeout percentage while simultaneously cutting his walk-rate by 3.7 percent. His fastball ranked in the 92nd percentile in velocity and the 97th percentile in spin rate last season after a mechanical adjustment to his delivery. An increase in spin rate led to an 11 percent increase in swing and miss percentage on his slider, a 16 percent increase on his changeup, a 23 percent increase on his curveball, and a six percent increase on his fastball. If Cease can manage to limit his free passes in 2022, he could take the next step to becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Dallas Keuchel

The underlying metrics for Dallas Keuchel have been forecasting decline for numerous years. Keuchel has not posted a strikeout rate north of 20 percent since 2017, when he was still with the Houston Astros. In 2021, Keuchel posted full season career-worsts in ERA (5.28), xERA (6.20), FIP (5.23), strikeout percentage (13.2%), and WHIP (1.53). His lack of swing-and-miss stuff is especially problematic with a putrid defensive infield playing behind him. The departure of Carlos Rodon is likely to afford Keuchel a spot in the Opening Day roster spot to keep at least one southpaw in the rotation. Still, Keuchel’s days as a starter are likely limited–especially if Michael Kopech is deemed ready for an expanded workload in 2022. Reports out of Spring Training are that Kopech is being stretched out to be a starter, but that he is likely to be limited to less than five innings of work during the month of April. 

Reynaldo Lopez

Assuming Kopech is limited to start the year, Reynaldo Lopez has an opportunity to break camp as a member of the Chicago rotation to begin the year.. Following back-to-back abysmal campaigns in 2019 and 2020, Lopez was surprisingly serviceable in 2021–posting a 3.43 ERA, 3.76 xERA, and a 4.19 FIP in 57.2 innings of work. Unquestionably, Lopez benefited from an unsustainably lucky .222 BABIP against him, but a career-best 24.8 strikeout percentage and 5.9 percent walk-rate offer White Sox fans hope that the former top-50 prospect could finally be on the verge of a breakout. Per James Fegan of The Athletic, Vince Velasquez is also being considered for a backend of the rotation spot during Spring Training.

Bullpen

In 2021, the White Sox bullpen ranked 4th in FIP (3.75), 2nd in xFIP (3.83), 2nd in strikeout percentage (27.9%), 23rd in walk-rate (9.1%), and 7th in WHIP (1.25). Prior to the lockout, Chicago signed Kendall Graveman to a three-year, $24M deal. On March 12th, the White Sox further bolstered their bullpen by adding Joe Kelly to a two-year deal. Per 570 LA Sports, Kelly has indicated that he will be ready for the beginning of the season, following a biceps injury that he suffered during the NLCS. 

There is arguably no team in baseball with a more lethal assortment of late-inning options than Chicago heading into Opening Day in 2022. Manager Tony La Russa commented that he expects Craig Kimbrel to be on the roster come April 7th, despite an abundance of rumors that he would be traded. Chicago’s bullpen features a rare combination of talent, but also a rare mix of right- and left-handed options that are capable of holding leads in the latter frames. In spite of below-average command as a unit, this is arguably the best relief corps in the league.

Chicago White Sox Betting Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 91.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +1000
• Division Winner: -200
• To Make the Playoffs: -370
• American League Winner: +500
• World Series Champion: +1100