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2022 Chiefs Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Sat 9/10 12:50am PT

Since hiring Andy Reid to be the head coach, the Kansas City Chiefs have never won fewer than nine games in a season, and have only missed the playoffs once – in 2014. Since handing the reins to Patrick Mahomes in 2018, the Chiefs have never won fewer than 12 games, and have finished at the top of the AFC West in each of his first four years.

The offseason was ostensibly a disappointment for the Chiefs, trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, and letting Tyrann Mathieu leave to join the New Orleans Saints. On top of losing big names, the division seemingly became more difficult, with Russell Wilson joining the Denver Broncos and Davante Adams landing with the Las Vegas Raiders.

The media has absorbed the aforementioned transactions and decided that the Chiefs could be dethroned in their division this fall. Let’s take a look at this roster unit-by-unit to see if the pessimism is justified, or if Mahomes and company are still the class of the division.

Chiefs 2022 Team Preview

Quarterback

Depth Chart: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Shane Buechele, Dustin Crum

In 2021, defensive coordinators finally managed to make life difficult for Patrick Mahomes. The result was a career worst season, finishing with his lowest average depth of target and lowest QBR of his career, while also throwing a career-worst 13 interceptions. Still, Mahomes’ worst season as a professional resulted in him having a better than league average passer rating from a clean pocket, when under pressure, against the blitz, on third down, and in the red zone. Further, he was better than league average on throws of all depths of target in 2021, including an exceptional 19-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on throws 10-plus yards from the line of scrimmage. In Mahomes’ worst year to date, he still led the Chiefs to 12 regular season victories and had his team in the AFC Championship for the fourth consecutive season. The obvious question is – does the loss of Tyreek Hill, his leading receiver, open the possibility of further regression in 2022?

The short answer – no. Mahomes still has elite arm talent, one of the better pass-blocking offensive lines in the league, and could benefit from more diversity in what had become a somewhat predictable passing attack. The absence of Hill will force defensive coordinators to stop playing two-high safeties as a default setting against the Chiefs, which could reignite the deep-passing game for the Chiefs. The lack of a truly elite top receiver could also lead to more rhythm and timing plays that feature a collection of pass-catchers – something that will be extremely difficult to defend with Mahomes throwing the ball.

There is little reason to be pessimistic about anything on the offensive side of the ball heading in 2022 for Kansas City fans.

Running Back

Depth Chart: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones II, Jerick McKinnon, Derrick Gore

In 2021, the Chiefs managed to finish with the seventh-highest rush yards per play in the league, despite not having a single player total more than 558 rushing yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the most talented option in this backfield last season, but was limited to only 10 games and 119 attempts. A healthy Edwards-Helaire could give this offense even more balance in 2022, which could make this offense even more difficult to defend than in recent years – a scary thought for opposing teams.

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Travis Kelce

Tyreek Hill was the Chiefs’ most targeted receiver in 2021 overall, pacing the offense with 159 targets. He was also the most targeted player on third down, against the blitz, and in the red zone. It is difficult to imagine Travis Kelce receiving much more action than he did last year – 92 receptions on 134 targets, meaning that other players will have an opportunity for expanded roles in the passing attack.

Mecole Hardman is an obvious candidate for a breakout season, having finished third on the Chiefs with 59 receptions and 693 receiving yards in 2021. Yet, it is difficult to imagine a player who received only nine targets across three playoff games truly emerging as a top-20 receiver in the NFL. Free agent additions Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling both figure to make an immediate impact in their first year in Kansas City, with second-round draft pick Skyy Moore also factoring into the plans on a weekly basis.

The main critique of Moore is that he put up big numbers against weak competition in college. Yet, his elite agility should translate well at any level, particularly if Kansas City uses him frequently in the slot. 

It is difficult to predict who will earn a lionshare of the targets behind Kelce in this group heading into the new season, but the important thing from a team perspective is that there is no shortage of weapons at Mahomes’ disposal. 

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Andrew Wylie

Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, and Creed Humphrey form one of the best offensive line trios in the entire league. Brown Jr. is strong in pass protection and has been good enough as a run-blocker to post three consecutive top-24 finishes in Pro Football Focus’ grading system for tackles. Thuney is elite as both a run-blocker and in pass protection, and graded as the league’s top pass-blocking guard in 2021. Creed Humphrey was outstanding as a rookie out of Oklahoma. The Chiefs could have a future Hall of Famer at center if he is able to replicate his impressive rookie campaign in future seasons. Trey Smith was drafted in the sixth-round of last year’s draft, but played much better than anticipated. He was elite as a run-blocker as a rookie, and close to league average as a pass-blocker. There is reason to believe that he can be even better in 2022. The primary weakness for this unit is Andrew Wylie at right tackle, who could be a major liability in pass protection this fall. 

Base 4-3 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: George Karlaftis, Derrick Nnadi, Chris Jones, Frank Clark

Chris Jones has been the best interior defensive lineman (not named Aaron Donald) in football since entering the league in 2016. Jones has amassed 41 sackes across the last four seasons alone, with elite grades as a run defender as well. The issue for this unit in past seasons is that there has not been much talent around Clark. Recognizing this problem, the front office invested in George Karlaftis out of Purdue in the first round of this past summer’s draft. Karlaftis should, at minimum, help to dramatically improve a Kansas City run defense that allowed the second-most rush yards per play last fall. If Karlaftis can contribute anything as a pass-rusher, that will be a welcomed added-bonus.

Frank Clark had 14 sacks in his final season with the Seattle Seahawks in 2018, but has simply not been the same caliber player since joining the Chiefs. Clark has seen his sack total decrease in each subsequent year since 2018, and has rapidly deteriorated as a run defender as well. A return to his peak would make this unit extremely formidable, but it does not seem likely. If Clark struggles again, Kansas City could once again be near the bottom of the league in sacks per pass attempt, after finishing 30th out of 32 teams in 2021.

Derrick Nnadi was one of the worst defensive lineman in the NFL a season ago. A best case scenario is that he returns to being a reliable contributor against the run, but he has never profiled as an adept pass-rusher, thus limiting his overall ceiling.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal, Willie Gay

The Chiefs possess one of the better linebacker corps in the league, with upside that could lead this group to become an elite unit by the end of 2022. Nick Bolton was outstanding against the run as a rookie, and has the potential to improve in other areas of his game entering only his second season. Willie Gay Jr. was better than league average in his sophomore campaign, having demonstrated noticeable improvements in coverage. The former second round pick might not be done getting better, considering that he is only 24 years old. 

Adding to the talented tandem of Bolton and Gay, Kanas City spent a third round pick on Leo Chenal out of Wisconsin this past summer during the draft. Chenal was poor in coverage during his collegiate career, but more than made up for that deficiency as a stout run defender. A strong rookie campaign would go a long way in improving an abysmal Chiefs’ run defense from 2021.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Trent McDuffie, Justin Reid, Juan Thornhill, L’Jarius Sneed

Last year, the Chiefs finished 26th in pass yards allowed per play, according to NFL GSIS. To the front office’s credit, they addressed this weakness aggressively during the offseason, drafting Trent McDuffie with the 21st overall pick and signing Justin Reid during free agency. 

McDuffie had limited experience in press coverage at Washington, but will excel if used primarily in a zone scheme. Reid is coming off of back-to-back poor seasons, but the former third-round draft pick has plenty of upside, evident by his body of work from 2018 and 2019. If the issue was motivation, playing with the Houston Texans, the opportunity to contribute for a contender could see him return to being one of the better safeties in football.

L’Jarius Sneed has a high floor, after finishing around league average in coverage grade in each of his first two seasons, per Pro Football Focus. The addition of McDuffie could also allow Sneed to have easier matchups on a weekly basis, which could improve his production. 

Juan Thornhill is far from elite, but the former third-round pick is also far from an issue for this defense. Thornhill should deliver better than league-average numbers again in 2022 for this unit.

2022 Outlook

Kansas City has an elite option as the most important position in modern football – quarterback. The presence of Mahomes will keep the Chiefs competitive every year, with the true upside of this roster being decided by the talent around him.

In 2021, the Chiefs managed to win 12 games, despite a 3-4 start to the year. They beat the Las Vegas Raiders (twice), Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos (twice), Los Angeles Chargers, and Pittsburgh Steelers down the stretch, which alleviates any concerns around their difficult strength of schedule in 2022. Moreover, the Chiefs won the AFC West last season with a defense that ranked 24th in DVOA. The front office invested heavily in areas of need during the offseason, drafting Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis, Bryan Cook, and Leo Chenal all in the first three rounds. 

The offense will remain elite, with Travis Kelce headlining an extremely talented collection of pass-catchers. If the right tackle position is not as bad as expected, the Chiefs will also have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

There is no shortage of competition within the division this fall, but there is still no team that is better than the Chiefs. Take the over on their win total.

PICK: Kansas City Chiefs o10.5 wins (-115)

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