Cincinnati Reds Futures Odds and 2022 Pitching Predictions

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida previews the Cincinnati Reds’ pitching staff and 2022 MLB futures odds. Make sure to claim $2000 in risk-free bets with our PointsBet bonus.

Cincinnati Reds Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 72.5 Wins (+105)
• Best Regular Season Record: +20000
• Division Winner: +1700
• To Make the Playoffs: +570
• National League Winner: +7000
• World Series Champion: +15000

Reds Pitching Preview and Outlook

Tyler Mahle

Across Tyler Mahle’s first three big-league seasons, he compiled a 4.88 ERA and a 4.86 FIP. However, since the beginning of the 2020 season, Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA and a 3.82 FIP across 227.2 innings of work. In his first three years, he posted a 21.9 strikeout percentage against an 8.5 percent walk rate. His command has remained passable over the last two years, but it has been his 28.1 strikeout percentage that has enabled him to take the next step in his development. Last summer, Mahle finished in the 72nd percentile in average exit velocity, 67th percentile in xwOBA, and the 79th percentile in strikeout percentage. If there is one thing to note, Mahle’s spin rates fell off dramatically after the league-wide crackdown on foreign substances last June. Nevertheless, Mahle had a 3.74 ERA and a 3.55 FIP during the first three months of the campaign, followed by a 3.76 ERA and a 4.03 FIP across his final 17 turns in the rotation–indicating that he does not need elite spin rates to sustain his success. Expect another good year from the 27 year old in 2022. Mahle’s NL Cy Young odds are +10000 at BetMGM Sportsbook, but you can get +15000 on Caesars.

Vladimir Gutierrez

In his first taste of big-league action, Vladimir Gutierrez delivered a 4.74 ERA, 4.57 xERA, and a 5.22 FIP in 114.0 innings of work. Yet, the path to his end of season numbers was far from linear. Gutierrez had a 2.74 ERA and a 4.08 FIP in his first four starts, followed by a 6.61 ERA and a 7.29 FIP in his subsequent six trips to the hill, rebounded for a 1.86 ERA and a 3.17 FIP from July 27th to August 22nd, but struggled to a 9.43 ERA and a 7.17 FIP in six outings from August 28th to the end of the regular season. Overall, Gutierrez was underwhelming–ranking in the 48th percentile in average exit velocity, 32nd percentile in wOBA, 32nd percentile in xERA, 12th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 35th percentile in walk-rate. Opposing hitters demolished his fastball, Gutierrez’s primary pitch, for a .401 wOBA. His curveball was similarly ineffective, allowing batters to post a .361 wOBA. The absence of swing-and-miss stuff, combined with poor command and mediocre velocity limits Gutierrez’s ceiling significantly. There are not many teams in baseball for which the 26 year old would be able to earn a rotation spot.

Nick Lodolo

Nick Lodolo was selected with the seventh overall pick in the 2019 draft. He quickly ascended through the minor leagues, posting a 1.50 FIP in Rookie ball, a 1.30 FIP at the A level, and a 1.63 FIP in AA. Adding Lodolo to the starting staff comes as somewhat of a surprise, considering that the highly-touted southpaw has only 6.2 innings of experience in AAA. Still, the upside here is tantalizing. Lodolo featured a 32.1 strikeout percentage or better at each of his stops in the minors while exhibiting the elite command that was viewed as his primary strength on draft day. There are likely to be bumps and bruises for Lodolo in 2022 as a rookie in the MLB, but he gives Cincinnati Reds fans plenty to be excited about for the future.

Hunter Greene

Hunter Greene was selected with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft, but his arrival to the big-leagues was delayed due to Tommy John surgery, which kept him out of commission entirely in 2019 and 2020. Greene returned in 2021, dominating AA to the tune of a 1.98 ERA and a 2.35 FIP before finishing the year at AAA, where he posted a 4.13 ERA and a 4.46 FIP. He possesses a fastball that routinely hits triple-digits on the radar gun with a pair of respectable secondary offerings. Similar to Lodolo, there are likely to be growing pains for the youngster in 2022, but the ceiling on Greene is extremely high.

Reiver Sanmartin

Reiver Sanmartin, similar to Lodolo and Greene, has not thrown a single pitch in the major-leagues prior to Opening Day in 2022. Unlike Lodolo and Greene, Sanmartin is not a top prospect and lacks much of the excitement that the other two rookies in the rotation carry with them. Sanmartin features a low-90s fastball, but has good command, and mixes his pitches reasonably well. He is likely to be a serviceable backend of the rotation piece for Cincinnati until Luis Castillo is able to reclaim his spot on the starting staff.

Luis Castillo

During the months of April and May last spring, Luis Castillo posted a dreadful 7.22 ERA and a 4.81 FIP. However, the crisis came to a swift end when the calendar flipped to June as Castillo delivered a 2.73 ERA and a 3.34 FIP across his final 22 turns in the rotation in 2021. Most notably, Castillo struggled mightily with his changeup during the early portion of the campaign, but he seemed to get a better feel for the pitch as the season progressed, limiting opposing hitters to a .308 wOBA in June, .264 wOBA in July, .157 wOBA in August, and a .254 wOBA in September. As his primary offering, it only makes sense that his performance will fluctuate to the extent that he is able to execute with his changeup. Assuming that Castillo is healthy upon his return from the injured list, he figures to be a strong number two option behind Mahle with ace upside

Bullpen

In 2021, the Reds bullpen ranked 25th in FIP (4.56), 18th in xFIP (4.34), 3rd in strikeout percentage (26.8%), 29th in walk-rate (11.4%), and 21st in WHIP (1.38).