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A Look Ahead: Free College Football Betting Picks For Week 1

Alex Hardin Thu 6/23 1:57pm PT
Our college football experts are keeping an eye on the Arkansas Week 1 odds for the 2022 season.
Image Credit: Imagn

College football betting analyst Alex Hardin gives his best Week 1 picks, as he looks ahead to the beginning of the 2o22 NCAAF season!

During this college football preview series, we already took a look at some Week Zero lines and totals and NCAAF team props last week. Today, let’s take a look at some plays I like from the first full week of the college football calendar, Week 1! 

Expert Picks: Free College Football Week 1 Best Bets

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia

This line is quite a bit light and likely an overreaction to the loss of Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison. Those are certainly big losses, but last year’s Pitt team was more than just a QB/WR combo.

Beyond returning all five starters on the offensive line (which is extremely valuable), and six all-conference guys on defense, Pitt will have solid options to fill the void at QB with USC transfer Kedon Slovis (All-Pac 12 honorable mention as a freshman) and Nick Patti (who I think is actually pretty interesting).

Most of their running back committee will be returning, while Akron transfer Konata Mumpfield (2nd Team All-MAC last year with a 63-751-8 line) should be impactful at receiver.

The offense will likely take a small step back, especially with the loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, but Frank Cignetti (from Boston College who helped improve their offense) should be fine with the parts and pieces that will be present.

Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s calling card has always been his defense and that unit should be quite solid again this season, especially in terms of pass rush. 

I really kind of buried the lede here – this is definitely more of a WVU fade than pro-Pitt wager.

While WVU is getting JT Daniels at QB, the Mountaineers have huge question marks all over the roster, and no real reason to assume they are actually trending upward. Their workhorse RB Leddie Brown is gone, and is replaced with the far less talented Lyn-J Dixon from Clemson.

The receiver play has been very inconsistent and I think any reasonable level of success will come later in the season once Daniels is more comfortable.

The only chance WVU has at keeping this close is if its solid defensive line can consistently get in the backfield. However, we already covered how solid the Pittsburgh offensive line should be. I love Pitt -7 here, and will be shopping for some ALT lines (such as Pitt -10, Pitt -14, etc) as we get closer to the season kicking off. 

Michigan State vs. Western Michigan

WMU is likely to take a massive step back this season as they lose nearly 75% of their offensive production from last season (130th out of 131 teams!!!), including QB Kaleb Eleby, two all-MAC lineman, and four of their top six receiver group which featured 3rd round pick Skyy Moore.

The Broncos do return La’Darius Jefferson and Sean Tyler in the backfield, but how impactful can those RBs be within this offense that could have severe issues in the passing game and run blocking?

WMU has been pretty decent the last few years, but OH BUDDY, this is not going to be pretty relative to their standard. This is a great spot to fade early in the season as the books power rankings just likely won’t be adjusted enough relative to my expectations. 

Michigan State lose RB Kenneth Walker and WR Jalen Nailor, but return the core of a team that won 11 games last season, including Payton Thorne back at QB. At RB, Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard will likely absorb most of the carries – which is fine.

For me, the biggest question mark offensively will be getting the offensive line sorted out as they lost two starters and a third was injured in spring practices. The good thing here is that I doubt WMU will be able to be overly threatening to the Spartans in the trenches, so they will be able to ease their way into the season. The MSU defense should be a bit improved this year and have upside to be a top-15 unit in the country.

That will largely depend on if a few of their transfers can be impact players, such as CB Ameer Speed who is coming in from Georgia and should be a day 1 starter. Regardless of their defensive ceiling for the season, WMU will certainly be outmatched in this specific game. 

Michigan State just has way too much talent and depth for WMU to keep this one close. It could get extremely ugly and I do not expect the WMU offense to have much success at all here. I like Sparty to have a field day and another game that I will be searching for ALT lines to bet, as I would not be surprised if they won by 30.

Arkansas vs. Cincinnati

I am honestly surprised that Arkansas is given so much respect here, even considering this game is in Fayetteville. I know quarterback KJ Jefferson is back, but receiver Treylon Burks is now in the NFL and the defense lost quite a few pieces – but I guess they are now getting SEC level respect by the bookmakers.

Arkansas does have depth, and it seems like the Razorbacks are moving in the right direction. The program mostly held the coaching staff in place, but was last year a mirage, or will they actually be able to compete in the SEC West again this year?

I think they will be a solid team and really have no major issues with them, this wager is all about the confidence I have in Cincinnati as a program and solely betting a number that I believe is just simply off.

Cincinnati loses Heisman contender Desmond Ridder at QB, but there is a bigger picture with this team and Luke Fickell is building a sustainable monster. For starters, the Bearcats are returning their entire offensive line, which is a great base to build upon.

While we saw EMU QB Ben Bryant transfer back to Cincinnati this offseason, I believe that super athlete Evan Prater needs to be the one winning this job for their upside to be in place – Bryant is awful. I am expecting Prater to win the job, but it should be a true competition, at least initially.

The bigger question is how can they replace six defensive starters who are now in the NFL? This is where the program depth and development will be tested, as it has names who have been waiting for their chance. The strength of Cincinnati’s defense will likely be its stout defensive line, which makes me feel better about this specific game at Arkansas. Line-play will be key to stop the Hogs run heavy attack. 

This should be a really competitive barometer game for both programs and I expect it to play out close, so I am super comfortable grabbing the seven points and a small bet on Cincinnati moneyline.

I could certainly see this number crawl down closer to 6 over the next couple months so I want to make sure I lock in that full touchdown early in the offseason.