Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers (4/22/22): Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Rockies vs. Tigers odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for today’s game. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Rockies vs. Tigers Odds

Tonight, the Colorado Rockies and the Detroit Tigers will begin a three-game set at Comerica Park. Entering play, Miguel Cabrera has 2,999 career hits, which is understandably stealing all of the headlines over a starting pitching matchup between Antonio Senzatela and Tarik Skubal. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate Cabrera becoming the 33rd member of the 3,000 hit club on Friday, pricing one of his MLB player props at -275 to record a hit. The Tigers are priced as -139 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see if Cabrera will achieve one of baseball’s most noteworthy milestones this evening, and whether or not there is value at sportsbooks on the side or total in this Friday night affair.

Recap: Miguel Cabrera’s Plate Appearances from Thursday

Following a hitless appearance against the New York Yankees on Thursday afternoon, there were no shortage of conspiracy theories on Twitter, asserting that sportsbooks kept Cabrera from achieving the milestone. Some bettors found it particularly suspicious that DraftKings boosted the odds on Cabrera to get a hit on Thursday to +100, only for the prop to fail to cash.

Far from being a conspiracy, this was simply a bad bet for anyone who took the bait. Though Cabrera entered play with a .333 batting average, he had only two extra-base-hits in 41 plate appearances, and only one barreled-ball in his last 18 balls-in-play since April 11th. In fact, he had only two games during that stretch in which he hit a ball with an average exit velocity above 90 miles-per-hour. Further, it was a poor matchup for Cabrera on Thursday against the New York Yankees’ starting pitcher. Jordan Montgomery finished 2021 ranked in the 71st percentile in average exit velocity. Thus, it was no surprise that a batter who had failed to hit the ball hard recently, failed to hit the ball hard against a pitcher who excels at generating weak contact.

On top of his batted-ball metrics, it is worth pointing out that Cabrera had a .225 xBA against fastballs and a .188 xBA against breaking pitches when facing left-handed pitching in 2021. On Thursday, he swung at only one pitch that was not a fastball or a breaking ball. When Cabrera was intentionally walked in the 8th inning to set up a lefty versus lefty situation for the Yankees–it was hardly suspicious. Nearly every manager would set up a force play and the more advantageous matchup in that situation. This event only appeared out of character to some bettors because it is not every day that the betting community cares so deeply, and collectively, about whether or not a batter has a chance to get a hit.

Will Miguel Cabrera Get A Hit Tonight?

Current odds: (-250 YES / +200 NO, BetMGM)

In 376 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in 2021, Cabrera posted a .251 batting average, .702 OPS, and a 91 wRC+. In 2020, Cabrera posted a .219 batting average, .668 OPS, and an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 190 plate appearances. He has not even been a league average hitter against same-handed pitching since 2018, making this a poor wager from an expected value standpoint. 

Antonio Senzatela features almost exclusively fastballs and sliders against right-handed batters. Last season, Cabrera had a .240 xBA against fastballs and a .191 xBA against sliders when facing right-handed pitching. Nobody wants to be the guy rooting against Cabrera achieving a highly-anticipated milestone, but this is once again not a great matchup for him. He is likely to need Senzatela to make a mistake over the middle of the plate in this one if he wants to have a chance to barrel a baseball. 

Starting Pitcher Preview

In 156.2 innings of work in 2021, Senzatela had a 4.42 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 3.61 FIP. Though counterintuitive, Senzatela was worse when pitching on the road compared to his numbers at Coors Field last summer. Tarik Skubal entered 2022 with a career 4.57 ERA and a 5.20 FIP, but improved command has resulted in better numbers to begin the new season.

Through two turns in the rotation, he owns a 3.72 ERA, 3.96 xERA, and a 1.30 FIP. Still, Skubal draws a deceptively difficult assignment in this one against a Colorado Rockies lineup that ranks 8th in OPS and 4th in strikeout percentage against southpaws in a limited sample size to begin the year. 

Free MLB Betting Pick For Friday

We are not going to be the guys who tell anyone to bet against history being made tonight, but we do recommend simply rooting for Cabrera to get a hit as a pure baseball fan, rather than betting on a prop with a negative expected return. 

The play with the most positive value in this matchup could be the under on the team total for the Detroit Tigers. Through 12 games, Detroit ranks 25th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 7th in walk-rate, 18th in strikeout percentage, and 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, Comerica Park ranks as the 8th-most pitcher-friendly venue in Major League Baseball in night games. The Tigers could find it difficult to score runs in this one. 

• PICK: Tigers Team Total Under 4.5 runs (-145), Multiple Sportsbooks