Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs Odds, Pick and Prediction (5/8/22)
Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Dodgers vs. Cubs odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick and prediction for Sunday’s game. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 free bet today!
Dodgers vs. Cubs
Today, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs will conclude a three-game set at Wrigley Field on Sunday Night Baseball. Following a weather-related postponement on Friday, the Dodgers swept yesterday’s double-header, and will be seeking a series sweep this evening behind Walker Buehler. Chicago will counter with Marcus Stroman. Oddsmakers anticipate Los Angeles earning their sixth consecutive victory in this one, pricing them as -190 favorites on the moneyline.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Entering play on Sunday, Walker Buehler owns a 2.12 ERA, 3.52 xERA, and a 3.11 FIP. Though these numbers would be excellent by most pitchers’ standards, they are slightly underwhelming for the Dodgers’ de-facto ace. Further, there are some concerns beneath the surface that Buehler has lost a little bit of his dominance. Since 2019, Buehler’s strikeout percentage has decreased each season, with a career-low 21.5 strikeout percentage through five turns in the rotation in 2022. The primary cause seems to be related to his velocity, which has decreased from 97.2 miles-per-hour in 2020 to 94.6 miles-per-hour in 2022 on his fastball. Still, Buehler is a talented pitcher capable of missing bats and generating weak contact. He has another favorable matchup this evening against a feeble Chicago lineup.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Los Angeles offense has yet to get going on a consistent basis this season. Across the last two weeks, the Dodgers rank only 15th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 2nd in walk percentage, and 10th in strikeout percentage. Their patient approach at the plate might not be as advantageous as it normally might be, considering that Stroman ranks in the 67th percentile with a miniscule 6.7 percent walk-rate. Though the Dodgers have an elite collection of offensive talent in their lineup, they still have their flaws.
Craig Kimbrel, Reyes Moronta, Brusdar Graterol, Phil Brickford, and Daniel Hudson each threw yesterday, but an off-day on Thursday followed by a postponement on Friday means that none of these relief arms have thrown more than 26 pitches in the last three days. Manager Dave Roberts should have all of his bullpen options available as needed in this one.
Chicago Cubs
After posting a career-best 3.02 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 2021 with the New York Mets, Marcus Stroman has started slowly with his new club in 2022–posting a 5.13 ERA, 4.57 xERA, and a 4.18 FIP through five turns in the rotation. Prior to first pitch on Sunday, Stroman ranks in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity, 6th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 39th percentile in strikeout percentage, 27th percentile in xwOBA, and the 34th percentile in chase rate. There is not much positive to say about the veteran right-hander ahead of his start on Sunday.
In the last 14 days, Chicago’s offense ranks 29th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 17th in walk percentage, and 29th in strikeout percentage. On the season, the Cubs rank 19th in OPS, 25th in ISO, 4th in walk percentage, and 26th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. Although we mentioned some concerns regarding Buehler’s velocity, his command has still been outstanding, evident by his 74th percentile walk-rate. Chicago’s offense is likely to struggle to score runs again on Sunday.
Robert Gsellman and Keegan Thompson each threw 54 pitches or more in yesterday’s double-header. Daniel Norris, David Robertson, Rowan Wick, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, Sean Newcomb, and Scott Effross each also appeared on Saturday. Combine potential fatigue with the fact that Chicago’s arm barn ranks 19th in FIP entering action on Sunday and it becomes difficult to see this group doing much of anything positively in the latter frames today.
Free Dodgers-Cubs MLB Pick
Los Angeles has the better starting pitcher, the better offense, and the better bullpen in this matchup. Bettors should be mindful of Buehler’s diminishing velocity, but this is not a strong enough reason to warrant fading him. If looking for a play in this contest, the under could have value with cold temperature and the wind blowing in towards the first base dugout tonight at Wrigley Field. Expect the Cubs offense to continue to struggle and for Stroman to do enough to keep this game under the current valuation on the market.
PICK: Under 7.5 @ -110