Dodgers vs. Phillies Expert Pick And Prediction (5/15/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Dodgers vs. Phillies odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Sunday. Use our PointsBet promo code to get a $2000 in free bets!

Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds, Expert Pick and Prediction

This afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers will wrap-up a four-game set at Dodger Stadium. The Phillies have won each of the first three games of this weekend series, and will turn to Aaron Nola on Sunday as they go for a sweep. The Dodgers have surprisingly dropped four consecutive contests. They will turn to Michael Grove, who they hope will be able to get them back in the win column. Oddsmakers anticipate Los Angeles avoiding a sweep, pricing them as -140 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola is off to another strong start in 2022, with a 3.83 ERA, 2.47 xERA, and a 3.47 FIP through his first seven turns in the rotation. He ranks in the 72nd percentile in hard-hit percentage, 83rd percentile in strikeout percentage, 86th percentile in walk rate, and the 76th percentile in chase rate. However, Nola has been significantly worse on the road during his career–posting a FIP over a full run worse away from Citizens Bank Park in each season since 2019.

The Phillies are arguably the hottest offense in all of baseball, ranking 2nd in OPS across both the last seven days, and the last 14 days. Across the last two weeks, Philadelphia also ranks 2nd in ISO, 8th in average exit velocity, and 2nd in wOBA. This is a dangerous lineup on any given day, but especially against a raw prospect, who is making his first career start at the big-league level. 

Seranthony Dominguez has appeared in three of the last four days, putting his availability for Sunday in question. However, the rest of the high-leverage arms in this unit should not have any restrictions. Jeurys Familia, Corey Knebel, Brand Hand, and Andrew Bellatti have each been heavily used across the last four days, but they were all rested on Saturday. Thus, while availability might not be an issue–fatigue could certainly be a problem in the latter frames today. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Michael Grove will be making his MLB debut this afternoon against the Phillies. A former second round draft selection, Grove has not performed up to expectations throughout his minor league career. In 51.2 innings at A+ in 2019, Grove had a 6.10 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In 2021 at AA, Grove posted a 7.86 ERA, 6.30 FIP, and a 1.79 WHIP. However, an offseason mechanical adjustment has paid dividends early in 2022. Through five starts at AA to begin the season, Grove has not allowed more than three hits or two earned runs in an outing. Prior to his last start, Grove had not walked more than one hitter either. Still, this is a pitcher that is undeniably a work-in-progress. Expect the Dodgers to limit him to one or two turns through the rotation on Sunday.

Though the Dodgers have struggled to get in the win column recently, it has not been the fault of their bats. Across the last two weeks, Los Angeles still ranks 10th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 3rd in walk-rate, and 12th in strikeout percentage. Even if Grove struggles today, this is a collection of offensive talent capable of winning a game by themselves.

The Dodgers are going to need to lean on their bullpen heavily in this one. Fortunately, they have no usage concerns to report. Craig Kimbrel has thrown only once this entire week. Only Reyes Moronta and Garrett Cleavinger threw in yesterday’s loss. Manager Dave Roberts should have all of his favorite weapons available as needed.

Phillies vs. Dodgers Expert Pick 

It is not often that the Dodgers lose back-to-back games, let alone four consecutive contests. Los Angeles has an elite offense, superb starting pitching, and one of the best bullpens in Major League Baseball. This is a team that has multiple paths to winning on any given day. Even if Grove struggles in his debut, the Dodgers have an offense and an arm barn capable of giving them a chance to win in the late innings against an overworked Philadelphia bullpen. Take Los Angeles here to avoid the sweep.

• PICK: Dodgers Moneyline (-135), DraftKings