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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Player Props To Bet On Friday

Keith Eyster Fri 9/23 12:37pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for Friday, September 23, 2022.

We have a full schedule of 15 games in MLB today, with everything taking place under the lights on Friday night. Aaron Judge continues his hunt for home run #61 on the season, and Albert Pujos closes in on #700 for his career. These are just two of the exciting storylines to hold our attention over the weekend.

We also have Week 3 of the NFL season continuing with a great slate of games on Sunday. I will have some picks for the NFL slate so make sure to check out the Picks section over at Scores and Odds! 

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today

Aaron Nola Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+125, BetMGM) 

We get started in Philadelphia, where the Phillies host the Atlanta Braves in a battle between NL East rivals. Philly is fighting to hold onto a 2.5-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers for the final NL Wild Card spot, while Atlanta trails the Mets by 1.5 games for the division title but have clinched a playoff berth. 

The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound for his 30th start of the season. It has been another great season for Nola who owns a 3.38 ERA with even better underlying metrics. The strikeout rate is excellent at 28.5% and the walk rate is truly elite at 3.5%. 

Nola has faced the Braves three times this season. He has lasted 7 innings in two of them and finished with 6 innings in the other one. He has gone that deep despite allowing at least 4 runs in each of those starts. I believe he can have a better outing this time out from a run prevention standpoint. 

His leash is among the longest in baseball, and his elite walk rate helps him pitch very deep into games. He has averaged 6.4 innings per start this year including a 2-inning start that was derailed by rain a few weeks ago. He has gone at least 7 innings in 15 of his 29 starts. He has another 6 starts where he departed after 6 innings. 

If Nola can be slightly better in run prevention than he has in his other three starts against the Braves this year he should have no problem going over 18.5 outs. If he struggles again, there is still a good chance he can go over. 

Chris Bassitt Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+115, BetMGM) 

Next, we head out to Oakland, where the Athletics take on the New York Mets. Chris Bassitt will make his 29th start of the season for the Mets, and it comes against his former team. 

Bassitt has been quite good for the Mets this season with a 3.32 ERA. His 3.63 SIERA and 3.60 xFIP are both very solid as well. His strikeout rate sits slightly above league average at 23.3% and his walk rate is excellent at 6.4%. 

Bassitt returns to Oakland for this start where he spent 6 seasons of his big league career. The matchup is outstanding for him as Oakland has been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season. Their 84 wRC+ is the third lowest in baseball, and their .277 wOBA is the second worst. Bassitt should have no trouble with run prevention in a great pitcher’s park he is very familiar with against a bad offense. 

Bassitt has averaged 6.1 innings per start this year, and he has gone over 18.5 outs in 11 of his 28 starts. He also has another 11 starts where he finished with 18 outs this season. The 6-inning mark will be the key, and the outstanding matchup should help with his efficiency to push him over the top for us in this one. 

That will wrap up the MLB picks for today. We were able to identify two outs props to target: 

Today’s Props Betting Card

Again, make sure to check out Scores and Odds for some NFL picks this weekend. Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!