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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Player Props To Bet On Wednesday

Keith Eyster Wed 9/21 12:10pm PT
Our MLB prop betting expert is backing Robbie Ray to exceed his strikeout prop available on sportsbooks.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for Wednesday, September 21, 2022.

We are down to just two weeks left in the MLB regular season, but there is still plenty to be excited about. Aaron Judge cracked his 60th home run of the season last night, becoming just the sixth player in history to reach that milestone. It will be amazing to follow his historic run down the stretch. 

We have 15 games on the schedule today, with the Nationals-Braves and Mets-Brewers games starting us off this afternoon. We will focus on the 13 games starting at 6:40 ET and later to find some prop bets today.

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today

Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Let’s get started in Miami, where the Marlins and Chicago Cubs are limping to the finish line in a season full of struggles for both teams. Marcus Stroman will make his 23rd start of the season for the Cubs. 

Stroman has been around league average this year with a 3.76 ERA and a strikeout rate of 20.0%. He continues to generate plenty of ground balls and limit the walks. 

Stroman has consistently posted strikeout numbers slightly below average in his career, but he has still been over 4.5 strikeouts in 12 of his 24 starts this season. He gets an excellent matchup against the Marlins today in Miami. 

The Marlins have been a below average offense with an 88 wRC+ this season, and their .290 wOBA ranks 4th worst in baseball. The lineup they are rolling out today contains plenty of strikeouts after the top two hitters in the order with each of the last 7 batters striking out at least 23% of the time versus righties.  

Stroman should have no problem limiting the damage against this weak lineup in a positive ballpark for pitching. I like him to last at least 6 innings in this one and go over 4.5 strikeouts. 

Jordan Lyles Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)

Next, we look to Baltimore, where the Orioles look to avoid the sweep (yikes) at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. The Orioles chances in the AL Wild Card race have taken a serious hit after consecutive losses to the lowly Tigers. They will send Jordan Lyles to the mound today in an attempt to get back on track. 

Lyles has had a rough season, with a 4.70 ERA, but there is some bad luck involved for sure. His BABIP sits at .323 for the season after averaging .292 over the past four seasons. His 4.46 SIERA and 4.53 xFIP are slightly better, but still below average. His strikeout rate is also below average 18.2%. 

Backing a below-average pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate is not normally advisable, unless they are a right-handed pitcher facing the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers’ offensive numbers against righties this season are truly woeful. They have posted just a 72 wRC+, and their .267 wOBA versus righties is the worst in baseball by a significant margin – 9 points worse than Oakland and 21 points worse than Pittsburgh, who are the second and third worst teams. The Tigers have also struck out at 25.1% versus righties which is the 4th highest rate in baseball. 

Lyles faced the Tigers all the way back in May and recorded 6 strikeouts despite allowing 4 runs in 5.2 innings. He should be able to generate some more whiffs today against this terrible offense and go over 3.5 strikeouts. 

Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120) 

We close it out in Oakland, where the Athletics host the Seattle Mariners who are trying to earn their first postseason birth since the 2001 season. Robbie Ray will make his 39th start of the season for the Mariners. 

Ray has been solid this season, but has struggled with inconsistencies at times. He owns a 3.72 ERA with slightly more favorable underlying metrics. His SIERA sits at 3.43 for the season, while his xFIP comes in at 3.52. The strikeouts are significantly above average at 27.7%, and he has mostly managed the walks well at 7.7%. 

Ray had another bout with wildness over the summer when he issued 15 walks in 28.2 innings over 5 starts surrounding the All-Star break. He has since harnessed that problem again with just 1 walk in his last 23 innings spanning 4 starts. 

With the walks seemingly under control, the other issue with Ray throughout his career has been the home run ball. He has allowed 4 home runs in his last 2 starts, but they have come against the powerful Braves and a red-hot Mike Trout. Home runs should not be an issue today as he faces Oakland at the Coliseum and their .130 ISO is the third lowest in the league this year. 

Ray also has one of the longer leashes in baseball. He averages nearly 6 innings and over 95 pitches per start. Ray should be able to pitch deep into the game today, and I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts. 

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!