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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Wednesday

Keith Eyster Wed 9/7 11:54am PT
Our MLB experts are backing Alek Manoah's player props tonight set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today – Wednesday, September 7, 2022.

We have a crazy 17-game schedule in MLB today with games spread all throughout the day. There will be two double-headers taking place with the Mets-Pirates and Twins-Yankees both doubling up on the fun today. We will focus on the evening games getting started at 6:40 ET or later. 

Weather looks to be mostly clear across the league today, with Baltimore the only spot that is even worth mentioning. Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth says the game “should be good to go by first pitch with light rain clearing into dry conditions this evening.”

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Wednesday

Alek Manoah Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

With Roth’s approval on the weather, we get started in Baltimore, where the Orioles attempt to split a four-game series with the AL East-rival Toronto Blue Jays. Baltimore trails Toronto by 3.5 games for the final AL Wild Card spot, so this is an important matchup for both teams. 

Alek Manoah will make his 27th start of the season for the Blue Jays. Manoah has been the clear ace of the Toronto staff this season with a 2.48 ERA. His strikeout rate is slightly above league average at 23.3%, and the walk rate is an excellent 6.1%. 

Manoah has been over 5.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 26 starts this season, including 2 of the 3 times he has faced Baltimore this season. He dominated them back in June with with 6.0 shutout innings and 7 strikeouts. His back-to-back August starts against them were a little more shaky. He allowed 8 hits and 3 runs over 5.0 innings with 5 strikeouts in his first August start. He was actually better the second time, but he was bitten twice by the home run ball so the results do not necessarily reflect that – he allowed 4 runs on 4 hits over 5.2 innings with 7 strikeouts. 

Baltimore has been on an incredible run since the All-Star break, so this is not the easiest of matchups for Manoah. They have been an above average offense in the second half with a 104 wRC+ and a 22.1% strikeout rate. They have also recently added elite prospect Gunnar Henderson to the big league lineup. Henderson adds another left-handed threat to the Baltimore lineup, but he did strike out at a 26.4% rate in AAA this season.  

I expect Manoah to rise to the occasion today in an important game for his team’s playoff chances. Give me the over on 5.5 strikeouts. 

Cristian Javier Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Next, we turn our attention to Houston, where the Astros take on the Texas Rangers. Cristian Javier will make his 21st start of the season for the Astros. 

Javier has been very solid this season with a 3.07 ERA that is backed up by a 3.25 SIERA and 3.69 xFIP. His strikeout rate has been elite at 32.4%, and while the walk rate is elevated at 9.1%, it is a significant improvement over the 12.5% walk rate he posted last season. 

Javier has been over 6.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 20 starts this year, and he has flashed double-digit strikeout upside on multiple occasions. He has faced Texas four times this season, and he recorded at least seven strikeouts in three of the four starts. The time he did not was his first start of the season in which he was only allowed to throw 84 pitches. He has been over 90 pitches in each of his last 14 starts, so the leash has clearly been extended since then. 

Texas has been an average offense this season with a 100 wRC+, but their .307 wOBA ranks just 19th. Their projected lineup today has struck out at a rate of 23.7% versus right-handed pitching this season and has walked at only a 6.5% rate. The low walk rate is particularly helpful for Javier who has been known to have shaky control at times. 

Javier should be able to limit the damage against the Rangers yet again, and I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts for the fourth time against them this season. 

Eys Breakers Betting Card

With limited options today, we are going to leave it at just the two plays. I don’t mind the plus money shot on Yu Darvish over 6.5 strikeouts, and Jordan Montgomery has seen an uptick in strikeouts since joining St. Louis. Both have been inconsistent enough recently that I don’t want to force anything. Let’s stick with these two strikeout props today: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!