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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday

Keith Eyster Tue 6/28 10:57am PT
Our MLB experts are backing Rodon and his strikeout props tonight.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today — Tuesday, June 28, 2022.

We have 16 games on the MLB schedule today with the Twins and Guardians playing a double-header. Game 1 of the double-header gets started early this afternoon with everything else taking place under the lights.

It is an absolutely loaded pitching slate with aces all over the board, so we have plenty of options to choose from. Weather is clear across the league as well with no risk of delays or postponements anywhere. 

Free MLB Strikeout Props Picks For Tuesday

Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-143)

Let’s get started out in San Francisco, where the Giants take on the Detroit Tigers. 

Carlos Rodon will be making his 15th start of the season for the Giants. He has put together another excellent season with a 2.70 ERA that is backed up by a 3.15 SIERA and 3.11 xFIP. The strikeout rate sits at an elite 31.3% with the walks at a respectable 8.7%. 

Rodon has flashed an elite ability to miss bats this season with a 14.2% swinging strikeout rate that ranks 7th among qualified starting pitchers. He also owns a 30.2% CSW% that ranks 9th in baseball. 

His matchup today is excellent at home against the Tigers. Detroit ranks dead last in MLB with a 76 wRC+ and second to last with a .272 wOBA. They have struck out at a rate of 23.7%, which is 6th highest in baseball. 

Rodon has recorded at least 8 strikeouts in 8 of his 14 starts this season, including each of his last 3 starts. There is no reason to believe he won’t do it again today against this weak Detroit offense. Give me Rodon over 7.5 strikeouts. 

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Next, we look to Philadelphia, where the Phillies host their NL-East rival Atlanta Braves. Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philly in his 14th start of the season. 

Wheeler is putting together another elite season with a 2.77 ERA that is supported by a 3.03 SIERA and 2.93 xFIP.  The skills are above average across the board as well with 28.3% strikeouts, 5.9% walks and 47.4% ground balls. 

Wheeler has been incredibly consistent this season. Over his last 10 starts, he has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start, and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 9 of them. He has also recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 9 of those 10 starts. 

The matchup against Atlanta does not come free of risk, but they are likely to be without two of their best hitters. Ronald Acuna Jr. is expected to miss this game after fouling a ball off his foot over the weekend. He missed Sunday’s game despite x-rays being negative, and was reported to have trouble putting weight on the foot. Ozzie Albies remains out with a foot injury of his own. 

The Braves have struck out at 25.1% this year, which is 3rd most in MLB. Their projected lineup today contains 4 batters who have struck out over 26% of the time versus right-handed pitching this year, and no batter has a strikeout rate below 19% versus righties. 

I like Wheeler over 6.5 strikeouts today, with an expectation that his fantastic season will continue.

Shane Baz Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Now we shift our focus to Tampa Bay, where the Rays welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to town for a brief two-game set. Shane Baz gets the start for the Rays for the fourth time this season. 

Baz has been great in 2 starts since he initially struggled in his season debut against Minnesota. He struck out 7 Orioles over 6 shutout innings in his second start, and held down a powerful Yankees lineup his last time out with 6 strikeouts over 4.2 innings. 

Baz has an elite four-pitch mix that has led to gaudy strikeout numbers throughout his minor league career. He struck out 18 in only 13.1 innings in a brief cup of coffee last year before an injury derailed his season. He has 15 strikeouts in only 13 innings this season. 

The matchup against Milwaukee is a positive as well. The Brewers have been a league-average offense with a 100 wRC+ and a .315 wOBA that ranks 13th. They have struck out at a rate of 23.6%, which is the 8th highest rate in baseball. 

The biggest concern for Baz is the pitch count. He was up to 78 pitches in his last start against the Yankees, so we could potentially see him in the 85-pitch range tonight. He should be able to get through 5 innings, and possibly 6 if he is efficient enough. I like Baz to go over 5.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Finally, we look to Seattle, where the Mariners will host the Baltimore Orioles. Robbie Ray will make his 16th start of the season for the Mariners. 

Ray has had a rocky first season in Seattle with flashes of brilliance mixed with significant struggles. He has not been able to find the same level of consistency that allowed him to bring home the AL Cy Young award last season for Toronto. 

Despite the inconsistency, Ray has still pitched a bit better than his 4.07 ERA. The strikeouts are still above average at 26.0% and the walks are at a manageable 8.3%. His 3.67 SIERA and 3.83 xFIP both suggest there is some positive regression coming in his run prevention. 

Ray has been above 30% strikeouts in four different full seasons in his career. I still believe in the strikeout ability and believe we should see some regression towards his 29.2% career strikeout rate coming into this season. 

Ray’s matchup today is about as good as it gets. Baltimore has struggled to a 94 wRC+ and a .301 wOBA that ranks 24th in baseball. They own the second highest strikeout rate (25.5%) versus left-handed pitching this season. 

I like Ray to dominate this below-average Baltimore offense and go over 6.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Eys Breakers Betting Card For Today

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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