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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Monday

Keith Eyster Mon 6/6 11:06am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Monday, June 6, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!

We have 6 games on the MLB schedule today with all of them starting later this evening. There is some serious rain risk in Cincinnati with RotoGrinders’ Kevin Roth thinking a postponement is probably on the way.

There is also some rain risk in Cleveland and Kansas City, so make sure to stay updated over on the RotoGrinders weather page. 

Free Expert Prop Picks For Monday

Cal Quantrill Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105) 

We get started in Cleveland, where the Guardians host the Texas Rangers.  Cal Quantrill will take the mound for Cleveland in his tenth start of the season. 

Quantrill owns a decent 3.52 ERA this season, but his skills have regressed from last year. His strikeouts are down at 15.1% and the walks are up to 8.7%. His 5.01 SIERA and 4.90 xFIP suggest he has been more than a little lucky. The swinging strike has declined in four straight seasons and is down to 7.0% after being over 9% in each of the last three years. He has recorded at least 5 strikeouts in only three of his nine starts this season. 

He gets a matchup with a Texas offense, which has been around league-average with a 22.6% strikeout rate and 96 wRC+. Quantrill is also dealing with some great hitting weather that includes warm temperatures and winds blowing out to center. 

The only true positive I can see for Quantrill is his pitch count. He has thrown at least 90 pitches in eight of his nine starts. Hopefully, Texas can take advantage of the good hitting weather and put some runs on the board. If they are able to hit him around a little and raise the pitch count, we should see him exit the game before the end of the sixth inning. I like Quantrill to stay under 4.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Noah Syndergaard Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Next, we look to Anaheim, where the Los Angeles Angels begin a four-game series with the Boston Red Sox. Noah Syndergaard will make his ninth start of the season for the Angels. 

It has been an inconsistent return from Tommy John surgery for Syndergaard. He has posted mostly solid results overall, but there have been plenty of struggles along the way. Last time out, he was blown up by the Yankees for 5 runs in only 2.1 innings. It marked the second time in three starts he lasted less than 3 innings and allowed 5 runs or more. 

His ERA is up to 4.02 on the season, with his 4.22 SIERA and 4.14 xFIP supporting his results. The strikeouts are significantly down from his pre-injury seasons with his strikeout rate sitting at just 15.9%. He has recorded at least 5 strikeouts in only three of his eight starts. 

He gets a matchup with Boston who has really turned it on offensively after a slow start. Their .322 wOBA ranks sixth best in baseball and their 108 wRC+ ranks ninth. They have struck out only 21.1% of the time this season which ranks tenth. 

The pitch count for Syndergaard has been as high as 100, but he has topped 90 pitches in only three of his starts. He was pulled before reaching 50 pitches in two of his last three starts. 

Boston has a good chance to put some runs up on Syndergaard and chase him from this game early again. Given his strikeout rate this season, I like this bet even if Thor is able to limit the damage and last 90+ pitches, but the blow-up risk is an added bonus. Give me Syndergaard under 4.5 strikeouts against Boston. 

Carlos Carrasco Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)

Finally, we head out to San Diego where the Padres welcome the New York Mets to town. Carlos Carrasco will make his 11th start of the season for the Mets. 

Carrasco has had a solid season so far with a 3.63 ERA. Both his 3.65 SIERA and 3.57 xFIP support his results. The strikeouts are slightly below league average at 21.4% and the walks have been a very solid 5.5%. Despite the lower strikeout rate, Carrasco has actually recorded at least 5 strikeouts in seven of his ten starts this season. 

His matchup today against San Diego is better than you may think. The Padres .297 wOBA ranks just 23rd in MLB and their wRC+ sits at just 93. They have struck out around the league average at 22.3%, but there are plenty of strikeouts at the bottom of this lineup. Voit and Alfaro have both been above 30% strikeouts against righties this year, while Kim and Grisham have been above 25%. If Mazara cracks the lineup, he struck out at 24.9% last year. 

The pitch count for Carrasco has been a bit inconsistent this year, but he was up to 95 pitches in his last start. He has been at 85 pitches or more in each of his last three starts. He had a random bout with wildness in his last start as well. He issued 5 walks after not allowing more than 2 walks in any other start this season. Hopefully, that was just a random blip and he brings his typically excellent command today. 

We should see 85-95 pitches from Carrasco. He should be able to limit the damage against this below-average San Diego offense, and pitch into the sixth inning. I like him to go over 4.5 strikeouts tonight.

Eys Breakers For Today

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three pitcher’s strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!