Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Tuesday, June 14, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!
We have 16 games on the MLB schedule today with the Pirates and Cardinals playing a double-header in St. Louis. Game 1 of the double-header already wrapped up, and everything else takes place under the lights this evening.
Weather is clear across the country with no threats of rain in any of the games. Temperatures are up, particularly in the midwest where we have some great conditions for hitting.
FREE MLB Props Picks For Tuesday
Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Let’s get started in Philadelphia, where the Phillies and Miami Marlins continue their three-game set. Trevor Rogers gets the start for Miami for the 12th time this season.
Rogers has taken a step backwards this year after a surprising rookie season that saw him finish as the runner-up for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. This year, his strikeout rate is down nearly 10 points to 19.6%, and his walks are up to 9.8%.
The results have not been pretty as his ERA sits at 5.58 on the season. His 4.58 SIERA and 4.51 xFIP suggest he has not quite been that bad, but it is still a large step backwards from his 2.64 ERA last year.
Today, he gets a huge ballpark downgrade going into Philadelphia, and must face a Phillies offense that has really turned it around in recent weeks. Since they fired their manager on June 3rd, the Phillies have posted a .380 wOBA and 143 wRC+ – both rank fourth best in baseball over that time. They have struck out just 20.4% of the time over this most recent stretch.
Rogers has gone over 5.5 strikeouts just once this season. I do not think this matchup against a red-hot Phillies team is a good spot to back him doing it for the second time. Give me the under 5.5 strikeouts.
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)
Next, we look to Citi Field, where the New York Mets take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Chris Bassitt takes the mound for the Mets in his 13th start of the season.
Bassitt has proven his jump in strikeout rate last season was no fluke. He has bumped it again slightly this year, where it is up to 25.3%. Bassitt has run into some bad luck to post a 4.35 ERA this year. His 3.65 SIERA and 3.80 xFIP both suggest he has pitched better than his results. His walks are up slightly and he has run into some bad home run variance with a 14.7% HR/FB ratio – league average is around 10%.
There is nothing too scary about his matchup today against Milwaukee. They have been a slightly below-average offense with a 97 wRC+ and a .310 wOBA that ranks 18th in baseball. They have posted the 8th highest strikeout rate in MLB at 23.6%.
Bassitt did get hit around a bit his last time out, but I expect him to bounce back today. He has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 8 of his 12 starts, and his matchup today against Milwaukee is a plus for strikeouts. I like him over 5.5 strikeouts today.
Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Next we head out to Arizona, where the Diamondbacks host the Cincinnati Reds. Tyler Mahle gets the start for the Reds for the 14th time this season.
It has been a bit of a rough season for Mahle as he has pitched to a 5.07 ERA this year. He was struggling to miss bats early in the season and posted just a 21.7% strikeout rate through his first six starts. He has since fixed that issue as his strikeout rate sits at 28.7% over his last seven starts. The control remains an issue, but he has posted three straight quality starts since being blown up by the Cubs on May 24th.
His matchup today is a good one against the Diamondbacks. They have struck out at 24.7% this year which ranks 4th highest in the league. They have been well-below average on offense overall with a 90 wRC+ and a .301 wOBA that ranks just 21st.
Mahle also gets the benefit of pitching away from his very hitter-friendly home park today. He has allowed a .343 wOBA to opposing offenses at home, along with 57 home runs in 268.2 innings in his career. The wOBA allowed drops to 3.02 on the road, and he has allowed only 27 home runs in 292.2 innings.
Mahle has had mostly neutral splits, if not slightly reverse splits, since the beginning of last year. That bodes well for him today as the Dbacks project to send 8 lefties to the plate against him. Six of the projected batters have at least a 23.5% strikeout rate versus righties this season.
Mahle has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 6 of his last 7 starts. I like his chances to limit the damage against a below-average Diamondbacks offense and go over 5.5 strikeouts again today.
Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Finally, we look to San Francisco, where the Giants host the Kansas City Royals. Logan Webb will make his 13th start of the season for the Giants.
Webb has been good this season with a 3.77 ERA that is backed up by underlying metrics. The walks and groundballs continue to be elite skills for him, but the strikeouts have dipped drastically from last year. His strikeout rate this season is all the way down at 20.0% after he posted a 26.5% strikeout rate last year.
The swinging-strike rate is down nearly two points to 10.6%, and the opponents are making far more contact outside the strike zone on him than they did last year. His O-Contact% is up over 11 points to 65.4%.
Today, he gets a matchup with a high-contact Royals team who have struck out at only 20.0% this year – 6th lowest in baseball.
Webb has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in only 7 of his 12 starts this season. The decline in strikeout rate this year, plus the matchup today, puts me on the under 5.5 strikeouts for Webb.
Eys Breakers Betting Card For Today
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four strikeout props to target:
- Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130, FanDuel)
- Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-134, FanDuel)
- Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
- Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-118, FanDuel)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!