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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday

Keith Eyster Tue 6/21 11:21am PT
Our betting experts are backing Roansy Contreras strikeout props again on Tuesday.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Tuesday, June 21, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!

We have 15 games on the MLB schedule with all 30 teams in action this evening. Weather is clear across the league as well, giving us a full slate of arms to choose from. 

MLB Strikeout Props Picks For Today

Tony Gonsolin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-157) 

Let’s get started in Cincinnati, where the Reds take on the Los Dodgers.

Tony Gonsolin will make his 13th start of the season for the Dodgers. He has put together a fantastic year so far with a 1.42 ERA. He owns a 25.0% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate, while improving his ground-ball rate over 7 percentage points to 43.9% this year. He has seen a drop in his home run rate as a result, with only 4 home runs allowed in 63.1 innings this season.

There is slight concern he could be due for some regression in that department, as he has been fortunate with a below average 6.6% HR/FB rate. He also goes into Great American Ballpark today, which is one of the most home-run friendly parks in the league.  

The strikeouts have always been above average for Gonsolin, so he still has a great chance to go over this prop even if the run prevention sees some regression today. He has been incredibly consistent over his last six starts as he has lasted at least 6 innings and recorded at least 5 strikeouts in each of them. He has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in four of the six outings. 

Gonsolin does not have the longest leash, but he has thrown at least 90 pitches in three of his last six starts. He averaged over 88 pitches thrown and did not throw less than 84 in any of those starts. 

Gonsolin gets an above-average matchup today as the Reds rank fifth-worst this season with an 89 wRC+ and ninth-worst with a .304 wOBA. They have struck out at a 22.8% rate which is 13th-most in the league. 

As long as he can limit the home runs, as he has done all season, he should be able to get through 6 innings. I like Gonsolin to go over 4.5 strikeouts against this below average Reds’ offense. 

Roansy Contreras Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)

Next, we look to PNC Park, where the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs square off in a battle of struggling NL Central teams. Roansy Contreras will make his 6th start of the season for Pittsburgh. 

Contreras has gotten solid results in his rookie season with a 3.06 ERA. The strikeouts are above-average at 25.2% and the walks are a manageable 8.6%. The underlying 3.67 SIERA and 3.84 xFIP are both solid as well. He has not been able to pitch deep into games as he is allowing a few too many hits and the defense behind him is not doing him any favors.

The Pirates have committed at least one error behind him that has led to unearned runs in each of his last three starts. The pitch count seems to have settled around the 85-pitch mark, although he was allowed to throw 98 pitches in his start against Arizona. If things are going well, I suspect he would be allowed to throw 95+ pitches again. 

The Cubs are a slightly below-average offense overall. They own a 98 wRC+ on the season with a .312 wOBA that ranks 19th. They have struck out a 23.0% rate this year that ranks 12th-highest in the league. Their projected lineup owns a strikeout rate of 23.8% versus right-handed pitching this season, with 5 batters that have struck out over 24% of the time. 

He has a chance to last 6 innings if the defense behind him holds up. The above-average strikeout rates in the Cubs’ lineup should help Contreras to go over 5.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Zac Gallen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128) 

Finally, we head out to San Diego, where the Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a three-game set. Zac Gallen will make his 13th start of the season for the visiting Diamondbacks. 

Gallen has put together a very good season so far with a 2.91 ERA. The underlying 3.68 SIERA and 3.92 xFIP suggest slightly good fortune but mostly deserved results. 

Gallen has seen a dip in his strikeout rate to 22.6% this season, which is down from 26.6% last year and 28.2% the year prior. The strange part is his average fastball velocity is sitting at a career-high 94.1 MPH this season.

There has been no decline in his swinging strike rate from last year, and his called strike rate is down only one point. The biggest difference is he is allowing more contact on pitches out of the strike zone. His O-Contact% is at 70.7% this year versus 65.2% last year. I think there is a good chance Gallen sees some positive regression in his strikeout rate going forward this year. 

His matchup today against San Diego seems like a great spot for that regression to kick in. They have been without Fernando Tatis all season, and Manny Machado is expected to miss a few more games with an ankle injury he sustained over the weekend. Fortunately, for Machado, the injury may not be as bad as initially feared, but he is almost certainly unavailable today.

The Padres have been just average on offense even with Machado in the lineup all season. They have a 102 wRC+ and rank 16th with a .310 wOBA. They have been good at limiting strikeouts, however, as their 21.3% strikeout rate ranks 11th-lowest in the league.

We should see either rookie C.J. Abrams or journeyman Sergio Alcantara in the lineup for Machado today. The Padres have four batters in the projected lineup with strikeout rates above 24% versus righties this season – five if it is Alcantara instead of Abrams. 

Gallen should be able to have success against this watered-down Padres lineup today. He has been above 90 pitches pretty consistently this season, and topped 100 pitches for the second time in his last start. Given that leash, and this matchup, I like Gallen to go over 4.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)

On the other side of the game, Sean Manaea takes the mound for San Diego in his 13th start of the season. He is coming off a rough outing having to deal with strong winds in Wrigley Field, but he should be able to get back on track today. 

For the season, Manaea owns a 3.95 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. His 3.70 SIERA and 3.65 xFIP both suggest he has been a little unlucky this season. 

Manaea has been over 5.5 strikeouts in 7 of his 12 starts this season. He has one of the longest leashes in baseball as he has thrown over 100 pitches in three starts this season. If we give him a pass due to the winds in his last start, he had over 90 pitches thrown in each of his 7 starts prior to that. He also lasted at least 6 innings in each of them. 

The matchup today against the Diamondbacks is a good one. Arizona has been below-average on offense this season with an 88 wRC+ and a .298 wOBA that is the 6th-worst in the league. They have struck out at a rate of 24.3% this season, which ranks 4th highest. The D’backs have four batters in the projected lineup that have struck out over 25% of the time versus lefties this year. 

The above average strikeout rate, plus his long leash and good matchup, should help Manaea go over 5.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Eys Breakers Betting Card

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!