Odds & Ends (2/17/22): Experts Have Big NBA Night, Neiffer 7-0
Grant Neiffer, the host of “Live Locks Sports Betting” (presented by ScoresAndOdds), has dominated sportsbooks across the last two weeks with his expert picks.
He gives premium expert picks for ScoresAndOdds and daily fantasy sports analysis for RotoGrinders.
But most importantly, he’s (figuratively) putting money in your sportsbook account.
Grant Neiffer was undefeated in NBA expert picks on Wednesday (7-0), gaining over 7 units, spearheading the NBA team’s +13.46 unit night.
“My process really doesn’t change when I’m on a heater, generally I still bet the same amount because things ebb and flow pretty drastically,” Neiffer said.
“I went on my worst losing streak of my career in mid January. It was mostly just because of blowouts and injures, so I generally just look for spots where the books haven’t caught up to the value of the players in new roles like Josh Giddey, Tyrese Haliburton, Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart.”
In fact, across the last week, Neiffer is 25-9, netting over 15 units.
The ScoresAndOdds NBA team, collectively, had a very successful Wednesday.
- Andy Means continued his successful early-bird picks, posting a 6-3 record, for 2.7 units
- Dean Shavelson (Grant’s best bud) gained 3.74u
- Nick Galaida went 3-0 (+2.5u) and is 14-6 last 7 days
- Andre Alford went 2-0 for 2u
- Justin Carlucci (me, third-person tense is weird) went 2-0 for 2u, 7-3 last 7 days
Consensus bets, why?
Four of our NBA experts (Means, Alford, Galaida, Myself) identified Gary Trent (over 20.5 points) as an elite play. Why?
“Whenever Fred VanVleet is out, the market assumes that Pascal Siakam is going to benefit the most,” said Galaida.
Trent finished Wednesday’s game with 30 points.
“It’s just like whenever Ja Morant is out, the market assumes Desmond Bane is the play. It’s actually Gary Trent Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. who benefit the most (and were both on Wednesday’s slate). Those are two pretty much automatic plays for me in those situations.”
Neiffer, Galaida, Carlucci (here we go with the third person thing again) were all on Tyrese Haliburton overs. Why?
Neiffer took Haliburton’s points over, Galaida bet combo, and I took assists.
“My favorite bet was definitely Haliburton, I bet him every which way I could,” Grant explained.
Haliburton tallied 21 points and 14 assists Wednesday, easily hitting all overs.
“His new role in the Pacers’ offense is incredible and he’s a great fit there with the guys surrounding him where he can be the guy,” Neiffer added.
For me, personally, it was the potential assist numbers across the last 15 days – and even since his trade to the Pacers, which caught my attention.
It’s true, Haliburton didn’t hit the over 8.5 assissts in two of his last three (now four) games – but he crushed once. I deemed it unlucky after a bit of research. Here’s what I wrote in yesterday’s premium analysis:
“Across the season, Haliburton averages 34.5 minutes, 7.6 assists and 14.6 potential assists. But over the last 15 games, without old teammate De’Aaron Fox in the fold, and three games with Indy, those numbers jump to 36.8/9.8/20.1.
“That’s a huge difference. In fact, despite only hitting this number in one of the last three games since the trade, Haliburton is averaging 22.3 potential assists. A little help from his teammates on the catch-and-shoot would help!”
Neiffer, Means take the over of Demar DeRozan’s massive scoring props. Why?
DeRozan was Meansy’s first pick of the day – first one up on the ScoresAndOdds expert pick premium section.
“Zach LaVine will miss his third straight game tonight, but not like it has really mattered either way for DeRozan. Why? Well, I am just going to rattle off his recent point totals, and you can see for yourself (most recent first): 40, 38, 35, 36, 38, 45,” Means said.
“The shooting has been stellar; well above expectation, don’t get me wrong. But should we expect that to stop against a Sacramento team that has been one of the worst defenses in the league, especially of late? I’m not! I think we ride the over here until DeRozan gives us a reason not to.”
We’ll see if the books catch up after the all-star break!
What’s on tap?
It’s the last night before the NBA all-star break and there aren’t a ton of games.
Neiffer said he’ll be taking a deep dive into the Miami at Charlotte game.
If you’re not signed up for ScoresAndOdds premium, you’re missing out on a ton of daily expert picks. The team has given out over 300 total plays in the month of February.
That’s it for Thursday. Thanks and good luck!