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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday

Keith Eyster Tue 7/5 11:37am PT
Our betting experts are backing Kikuchi tonight against Oakland.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today — Tuesday, July 5, 2022.

We have a full 15-game schedule in MLB today with all 30 teams in action. The Mariners and Padres start off the day with a 4:10 ET game, with everything else getting started at 6:40 ET or later. 

There are several weather concerns throughout the schedule. Be sure to check out Kevin Roth’s forecast over at RotoGrinders to make sure you are avoiding unnecessary risks in those games.

Personally, I have interest in Nick Pivetta in Boston and Michael Kopech in Chicago, but the rain concerns are significant enough I will be avoiding those spots for now. 

Pittsburgh is on the list with some slight risk as well, but Roth is more optimistic there with the majority of the threat coming late in the game. He cautions there is a “chance for a delay, but not too high of a chance.” 

With the rain, if there is any, more likely to come late in the game, I am comfortable targeting a pitcher there, so that is where we will get started. 

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Tuesday

Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)

The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the New York Yankees today at PNC Park. Jameson Taillon returns to where his career began for his 16th start of the season with the Yankees. 

Taillon has had a great season with a 3.32 ERA, 3.79 SIERA and 3.67 xFIP. His strikeout rate is slightly below average at 19.8%, but his 3.2% walk rate is the best in baseball among qualified starting pitchers. 

Taillon has recorded at least 5 strikeouts in 8 of his 15 starts this season. He gets a huge ballpark upgrade traveling from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium into pitcher-friendly PNC Park. He also gets one of the best matchups in baseball. 

The Pirates have been below-average offensively with an 86 wRC+ and their .291 wOBA is the third-worst in baseball. They have also struck out at a rate of 25.3%, which is the second highest rate in MLB. 

Taillon’s elite matchup should allow him to work deep into this game, and the Pirates propensity to swing and miss should boost his strikeouts. I like Taillon over 4.5 strikeouts today. 

Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) 

Garcia has had an excellent season for the Astros with a 3.54 ERA that is backed up by a 3.56 SIERA and 3.68 xFIP. His strikeout rate is well-above average at 25.7% and his walk rate is a very solid 6.8%. 

Garcia has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 8 of his 14 starts this season. He went over 100 pitches for the first time this season in his last start as he notched 6 strikeouts in 5.1 innings against a powerful Yankees lineup. 

His matchup today has both positives and negatives. Kansas City has been a below-average offense overall with a 93 wRC+. Their .300 wOBA ranks just 23rd in MLB, and they continue to be without one of their best hitters with Salvador Perez on the IL.

The negative side is they strike out at just a rate of 20.2%, which is fifth lowest in baseball. There are some strikeouts in the lineup, however, with 4 batters who strike out more than 23% of the time versus right-handed pitching. 

If hecan make it through the order three times, I like Garcia to go over 5.5 strikeouts.  

Yusei Kikuchi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-156)

Kikuchi has been a bit of a disaster in his first season with Toronto. His ERA sits at 4.74, he has allowed far too many home runs, and his walks are at a career-high 12.8%. He does grade out a bit more favorably with a 4.19 SIERA and 4.16 xFIP, but there are still some major flaws here. 

The one thing Kikuchi has done at an above-average level all season is record strikeouts. His 26.3% strikeout rate is the best of his career. 

Another concern here is the pitch count for Kikuchi. He has not thrown above 80 pitches in any of his last 6 starts. Despite the low pitch totals, he has still recorded at least 5 strikeouts in 4 of those 6 starts. 

In addition to the above average strikeouts, despite his struggles this season, Kikuchi has one of the best matchups in baseball today. He gets a massive ballpark upgrade going into Oakland to face one of the worst offenses in the league.

Oakland also struggles in the two areas that have burned Kikuchi this season. They have hit the second fewest home runs in MLB, and their 6.9% walk rate is the third worst in baseball. 

Kikuchi is coming off one of his best starts of the season with 8 strikeouts against Tampa Bay last time out. He also issued only 1 walk in 6 innings.

There is some hope he has fixed some things and can string together a few decent outings. Oakland is the perfect opponent for him to continue that success. I like Kikuchi over 4.5 strikeouts today. 

Strikeout Props Betting Card For Today

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!

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