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Eys Breakers (3/16/22): NBA Player Props Preview & Bets for Today

Keith Eyster Wed 3/16 12:12pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Sports betting expert Keith Eyster dives into NBA player props and bets to target Wednesday in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Keith’s prop calls are 10-2 overall across his first three articles!

Welcome back for another breakdown of today’s NBA slate! It has been a great run to start off the article series and I certainly hope to continue the success throughout the remainder of the season. 

We have a massive 12-game slate on tap for tonight and there should be plenty of spots to find some value. As usual, we will look into some unique situations and trends that teams will have to attack NBA player props. 

Kyrie-less Tonight

Perhaps the biggest name that will be unavailable for his team today is Kyrie Irving. Kyrie went off for a franchise-record 60 points last night in Orlando. Brooklyn returns home tonight where Kyrie is still ineligible to play. 

Brooklyn has also ruled out LaMarcus Aldridge due to a hip injury, and Seth Curry (missed last 2 games) and Cam Thomas (missed last game) are again listed as questionable to play. 

The Brooklyn injury report leaves Kevin Durant in a tremendous spot tonight. The matchup is not ideal against Dallas, but we are talking about one of the best players in the world here. 

Durant averages 32.38 points per 36 minutes this season with Kyrie Irving, James Harden and LaMarcus Aldridge off the court. RotoGrinders has him projected to play 39 minutes tonight. 

I am locking in Durant over 29.5 points without even considering the 20%+ usage rates of Cam Thomas and Seth Curry that could be missing tonight. If either of them were to sit, I would absolutely be hitting some alternate points lines for KD. If either of them play, I have a lot of interest in their points props as well. 

Trae The Truth

The next team I want to take a look at is the Atlanta Hawks. They get an up-tempo matchup with the NBA’s 3rd fastest team – the Charlotte Hornets. 

John Collins has been ruled out again with a finger injury. In the last two games, without John Collins, Trae Young dropped 47 points against Indiana and 46 points against Portland. Those were both incredible matchups, but he gets another great one tonight. 

I’ll take over 29.5 points for Trae with his recent form and excellent matchup tonight. 

Another guy who has been consistently contributing for the Hawks is Kevin Huerter. He has scored at least 14 points in each of his last four games while averaging 15 points per game. 

We can get him over 12.5 points for even money on DraftKings sportsbook. I am in. 

It’s Always Sunny

Finally, let’s take a look at who gets the best matchup in all of basketball tonight against the Houston Rockets. 

Devin Booker has averaged 26.7 points and 8.3 assists in seven games since Chris Paul went down with a thumb injury. 

His points prop looks like good value tonight. The line sits at 26.5 points while he has a projection of 28.51 points at RotoGrinders. 

The assist line for Booker sits at 6.5 with his RG projection at 6.78. Per ScoresAndOdds Odds Compare, we can see the line at FanDuel is offered with significantly less juice than other books. I am in for that discount when considering his recent performance (at least 7 assists in his last five games) and elite matchup against Houston. 

Cameron Payne has been playing at a high level in the absence of Chris Paul with averages of 15.1 points and 9.6 assists over eight games. Booker did miss four of those eight games, as well, but Payne still holds strong 14.5 points and 8.3 assists averages in 4 games with Booker ( two of them were blowouts where he played under 30 minutes as well).

I feel most confident in Payne’s assists production, with Cameron Johnson out again tonight.

Projections are aligned with the books here, but I still like over 7.5 assists for Payne. He posted 8 assists in only 27 minutes against New Orleans, and 11 assists in only 24 minutes against the Lakers. This is a fantastic matchup and he has demonstrated the ability to clear this number even if he doesn’t get his full run of minutes. 

That will do it for today. Let’s recap some of my favorite spots for this huge slate of NBA games tonight: 

Thank you as always for tuning in for my thoughts on today’s action. Good luck to everyone!