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Eys Breakers (3/18/22): NBA Player Props Preview & Bets for Today

Keith Eyster Fri 3/18 12:02pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Sports betting expert Keith Eyster dives into NBA player props and bets to target Friday in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Keith’s prop calls are 13-5 overall across his first four articles!

What a day of hoops we have ahead of us! Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament continues throughout the day, while we have another massive 12-game NBA slate this evening. We will have endless opportunities to get some betting action down, but always make sure you are playing responsibly. 

Let’s break down some team situations and see if we can find some good spots to attack in the NBA props streets. 

Portland travels to Brooklyn for a matchup with the Nets who rank just 21st in defensive rating while playing at the 12 fastest pace. The Trail Blazers remain extremely short-handed with all of Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons listed out again tonight. They have a host of role players out as well. 

So Hartless

Josh Hart continues to lead Portland in usage with the other 3 high-usage guys on the sidelines. He has shown a massive ceiling with the upside to shoot over 20 times per game. 

RotoGrinder’s projections agree this line sits about three points too low. Hart has been inconsistent with his shot at times – he shot the lights out against Washington (15-21) and really struggled at Minnesota (2-12) – but the volume is there and he should clear this line easily with any normal shooting performance. I also have interest in his alternate lines as he has demonstrated the ability to go nuts recently. 

The signing of Kris Dunn and the return of Justise Winslow have cut into the roles of Brandon Williams and Trendon Watford enough where I do not want to make them official plays today, but there is definitely upside in this group if you want to go that route. 

The other guy I want to discuss who has shown a strong role recently is Drew Eubanks. He has played at least 30 minutes in each of the last three games and has averaged 15.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists in those contests. 

There is value on his Points + Rebounds + Assists line if he is going to continue playing 30 minutes. The presence of Drummond on the other side should prevent Portland from going small too often, so I am comfortable he sees the minutes tonight. 

Sweet Jazz

Let’s shift gears to Utah where Donovan Mitchell has been ruled out with a calf contusion. Bojan Bogdanovic will miss his third consecutive game, and Danuel House Jr. and Trent Forrest have been ruled out as well. 

Jordan Clarkson owns Utah’s highest usage rate with Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic off the floor this season. It remains unclear exactly who will start for Utah with this group of players, but Clarkson’s minutes and usage should remain secure even if he doesn’t jump into the starting lineup. 

The Clippers boast a strong 8th overall defensive rating, but Clarkson should be relied upon as a primary scoring option in this game. I think he sees enough volume in this one we can feel comfortable taking the over on Clarkson’s points. 

I dug into both Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, but they have actually not seen enough of a usage boost without Mitchell and Bogdanovic for me to want to attack their props. Gobert sees a modest bump, but he is still below 20% usage and his line sits a full point above his season average. 

It is a similar story for Mike Conley who, as you can see from CourtIQ above, sees only 20.7% usage without Mitchell and Bogdanovic – that’s actually slightly below his season usage numbers. 

Conley’s line is actually a full two points above his season average. He is a pass for me as well. 

I do not see props for Nickeil Alexander-Walker as of the time of writing, but he does have 23% usage in a very small 34-minute sample with Utah. He scored 16 points last game against Chicago so I will be interested to see where he gets released. 

Seriously, It’s Still Sunny

Finally, we head over to the reliable Phoenix Suns. I have written up their props several times since the inception of the article, and I am going right back to them today. Their situation remains unchanged – Chris Paul, Cameron Johnson out – yet the sportsbooks have not raised their props. Devin Booker and Cameron Payne have cashed multiple tickets for us with their expanded roles. 

Booker has scored at least 27 points in each of his last three games and gets a great matchup at home with the Chicago Bulls. Lock this one in again. 

Payne has posted at least eight assists in eight of nine games since Chris Paul’s injury while averaging 9.8 assists per game. Another no-brainer for me today. 

That’s it!

That will do it for the breakdown of tonight’s NBA lines. As a reminder, here are the plays I am on after analyzing a few teams with unique situations tonight: 

Enjoy this amazing day jam-packed with basketball action! Good luck everyone!