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Eys Breakers (3/21/22): NBA Player Props Preview & Bets for Today

Keith Eyster Mon 3/21 11:15am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Sports betting expert Keith Eyster dives into NBA player props and bets to target Monday in his new series “Eys Breakers.”

What an awesome weekend of sports action!

Between NBA, MLB spring training, golf, UFC, F1, NASCAR and of course, the NCAA Tournament. My head is still spinning.  

The NCAA Tournament opening weekend did not disappoint. Number 15-seed St. Peter’s made it to the Sweet 16 with two thrilling victories. Baylor became the tournament’s first No. 1 seed eliminated, but they were not the only top seed to be tested. Gonzaga ran into a true test with Memphis and pulled out a victory after trailing by 10 points at the half, and No.1 seed Arizona survived an OT scare against TCU. Make sure to check out ScoresAndOdds for all your tournament betting needs for the upcoming games this week. 

The NBA regular season has reached its final weeks and we can expect some crazy manipulation of injury reports to impact playoff seeding and improve draft odds. Over the past few weeks we have used injury situations to identify NBA player props to target. There will be plenty more opportunities for us in the coming weeks, and it starts today. 

We have a solid 9-game slate for this evening, so let’s break down some trends and look for value.

LeBron Reunion

Cleveland is first up, as they host the struggling Lakers tonight. The Lakers have played with great pace all season long and rank fourth in the league. Their defense has taken a massive hit with Anthony Davis out of the lineup. Over the last 15 games, the Lakers defensive rating ranks 4th worst in the league. 

Cleveland continues to play without Jarrett Allen, who is sidelined with a fractured finger. Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade are also out with injuries. Let’s look at RotoGrinders CourtIQ and see who has seen increased opportunity. 

Evan Mobley has been the primary beneficiary, as expected with Allen off the floor. He has seen a 2.7% bump in usage up to 23.7%, and he has averaged nearly 19 points per-36 minutes. 

Mobley has scored at least 17 points in 6 of 8 games since Jarrett Allen’s injury. The matchup is ideal for him as the Lakers lack size without Anthony Davis. 

Darius Garland leads the team in usage, and he has been playing a ton of minutes recently. He has averaged 39.9 minutes per game since Allen’s injury, and he has topped 40 minutes in four of five games without Rondo. This is a fantastic matchup for him as well as he should draw the defense of Russell Westbrook for the majority of the game. 

His Points, Rebounds, Assists line sits at 38.5 across multiple sportsbooks. He has averaged 39.7 PRA over the last 8 games. I like him to hit the over in this fast-paced, plus matchup. 

Blazin’ A Trail

Portland has been a frequent focus of this article, as it continues to play without a significant portion of their roster. Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons remain out for this matchup against Detroit. 

And just as I was about tell you how awesome Josh Hart has been in their absence, he has been ruled out for tonight as well. What timing! Justise Winslow is expected to be available tonight after sitting out yesterday. Let’s see what CourtIQ can tell us about this group of players remaining for Portland. 

Well, Brandon Williams immediately jumps off the page! He sees a massive 6.7% jump in usage all the way up to 33.1%. A 90-minute sample is not a ton of data, but it is not insignificant either. I will caution Portland has since added Kris Dunn since this group last saw the floor together without Josh Hart, but I don’t expect that to impact Williams too much tonight. 

Williams has averaged over 20 points per 36 minutes with all four of Lillard, Nurkic, Simons and Hart off the floor. I am confident in the minutes tonight and the matchup is great as well. 

Trendon Watford is another guy who has done a significant chunk of the scoring while playing with this group, and he has been in good form recently as well. Watford has scored at least 16 points in four of his last six games even with Josh Hart active. 

Ben McLemore is interesting tonight also, but I do not see his props available at the time of publish. He has scored 11 points and 17 points in his last two games while playing under 25 minutes in both. He is a candidate to see extended minutes tonight, with CJ Elleby and Kris Dunn in the mix as well. 

There is sure to be even more value opening up today, so keep alert for news and be ready to take advantage. For example, Joel Embiid has been ruled out, just as I am wrapping up. Keep a close eye on where James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris props open back up. 

Recap!

To recap the breakdown today, Cleveland is in a phenomenal matchup with Jarrett Allen and Rajon Rondo still sidelined, and Portland is playing extremely short-handed in a good matchup. Here are the props I am targeting: 

Thank you as always for reading and let’s enjoy some NBA action tonight. Good luck everyone!