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Eys Breakers (3/23/22): NBA Player Props Preview & Bets for Today

Keith Eyster Wed 3/23 5:32pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Sports betting expert Keith Eyster dives into NBA player props and bets to target Wednesday in his new series “Eys Breakers.”

Welcome back for another breakdown of trends and situations to target for NBA player props this evening. 

Breaking!

We just received a report of another massive trade that will send Tyreek Hill to Miami for a haul of draft picks. This NFL off-season has been nuts! Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Khalil Mack, etc. I do not remember there ever being this many significant trades in a single off-season, but we will have to get into that another day. 

Anyway, there are another 11 games on tap in the Association tonight. We will look to break down a few of the team’s injury reports and target some NBA player props that may have a little added value for this slate. 

Keeping Portland Weird

I hope you all aren’t tired of reading about Portland yet, because they are going to be featured again today. They continue to play without a significant portion of their roster and again have a fantastic matchup. Portland hosts San Antonio tonight who has played at the 4th fastest pace in the league and ranks 20th in defensive rating. 

Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart are the main contributors who will miss tonight’s game. Portland will also be without a host of role players leaving us with the same situation we just saw in Detroit on Monday night. 

Brandon Williams was featured on Monday, as we targeted his points prop, and he did not disappoint. He posted a usage rate of 29.8% as he took 17 shots and found his way to the charity stripe 11 times. He finished with 23 points and easily cashed the over 17.5-points ticket. 

The matchup is just as good, if not better today, and the sportsbooks are still underrating his role. I personally took his line at 17.5 this morning, but it looks like it has moved to 18.5 by the time of publishing. I think there is still plenty of value at 18.5 and will even recommend a half-unit play on his 25+ alternate points line; you can get that at +360 over on FanDuel. 

I noted Ben McLemore’s usage on Monday, as well, but there were no props available for him at publishing. He went on to finish 2nd on the team with 16 shots and score 21 points. Again, I do not see props available for him, but his 26% usage is significant with this group. I would hit anything at 14.5 points or below immediately. 

Trendon Watford didn’t quite get there on Monday, but he did finish with 13 points. He got himself into a bit of foul trouble and probably lost a few minutes of court time because of it. He has seen 20.7% usage with this group and averaged 0.53 points per minute – just slightly behind McLemore for third among Portland’s available players tonight. 

I am going right back to him with the great matchup tonight. He is projected for right around 16 points tonight at RotoGrinders. The 13.5 points line at PointsBet is a point under the rest of the industry if you have access to that book, but I am fine with it at 14.5 as well. 

Drew Eubanks has also been a consistent contributor for this team. Over his last 6 games he has averaged 31.7 minutes, 15.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists. 

His averages above add up to 26.8 PRA over his last 6 games. By utilizing Odds Compare, we can see the 23.5 PRA line at FanDuel is below the rest of the industry at 24.5. I would be fine with this line at 24.5 PRA, but I will gladly accept the discount where it is available. 

King Me

Sacramento is up next as they will be without Domantas Sabonis for a few games. De’Aaron Fox is also listed as questionable with a hand injury and is not expected to play. Terence Davis and Richaun Holmes are also out for the season. 

Davion Mitchell put up 28 points, 3 rebounds and 9 assists last game against Phoenix without De’Aaron Fox. He draws a much easier matchup today against Indiana who ranks 26th in defensive rating. 

I like targeting the Points, Rebounds, Assists prop for Mitchell since he contributes in all three categories. He has a chance to post big numbers in both the points and assists categories that could help offset a shortfall elsewhere. 

Harrison Barnes is the other guy I expect to handle a large share of the scoring opportunities for Sacramento. He took 16 shots and put up 21 points last game without Fox, and he averages 16.8 points per game on the season. 

With Sabonis out in addition to Fox today, Barnes should have a great chance to hit the over on 18.5 points in this plus matchup. 

Survey says…

After breaking down injury situations in Portland (again!) and Sacramento, we have identified the following player props to target: 

I appreciate you all checking out my thoughts for another slate of NBA action! There are plenty of great spots to find value on this big slate. I hope the analysis of these situations assists you in breaking down other spots to target.

We are still waiting on plenty of news where injuries or rest situations may lead to value – I am looking at you Golden State (among several others). I wish you all the best of luck with your bets today!