Eys Breakers (4/22/22): MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today
MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Friday, April 22nd, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!
We have another full slate of MLB games to work with tonight.
The Pittsburgh/Chicago game was originally scheduled to start this afternoon, but they have moved back the start time due to weather.
According to RotoGrinders’ Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth, the move to an evening start time means the game should now play fine.
Drew Smyly will get the start for Chicago. He had just a 21.4% strikeout rate last year with Atlanta and is all the way down at 13.9% strikeouts in 9.2 innings with the Cubs.
He faced this Pittsburgh team in his first start of the season and delivered five scoreless innings. He threw 68 pitches, but he logged only one strikeout and induced 11 ground balls.
It was no coincidence Smyly attacked Pittsburgh in this manner. They had the fifth-highest ground-ball rate in all of baseball last season. Their projected lineup has a ground-ball rate of 47.2% versus lefties since the beginning of last season.
Pittsburgh does own a healthy strikeout rate of 24% versus lefties, but Smyly was able to deliver five clean innings pitching to contact in his first start against them.
We also get the benefit of a pitch count that is likely to be around only 80 pitches. Smyly was a late arrival to Cubs’ camp and has not gone above 74 pitches yet this season.
I expect Smyly to continue his heavy ground ball tendencies and stay under 4.5 strikeouts.
Next, we head out to Los Angeles where Mike Trout is hopefully set to return to the Angels lineup.
Top pitching prospect Reid Detmers will take the ball as the Angels host the Baltimore Orioles.
Detmers made only two AAA starts last season before making five starts with the big league club to close out the season.
He was dominant in the minors, posting a 43.1% strikeout rate in AA and 34.4% strikeout rate in AAA.
His big league starts have not gone as well, but the “stuff” should eventually translate into an above average strikeout pitcher.
It feels like a great day for Detmers to take a step in that direction against the Orioles.
Baltimore’s projected lineup has struck out a 25.8% rate versus left handed pitching since the beginning of last season, while also owning just a 7.6% walk rate.
Detmers will likely still have a limited pitch count, but I think we can expect 80+ pitches if he is efficient.
He logged five strikeouts against Texas, despite lasting only 3.1 innings and allowing five runs. Detmers also supplied three strikeouts against a very low-strikeout Houston team.
Tonight’s matchup is far easier and I think he goes over 4.5 strikeouts.
Over in Atlanta, the Braves take on the Miami Marlins.
Miami will send left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound. Rogers was excellent in his rookie season last year posting a 2.64 ERA over 133 innings with a 28.5% strikeout rate.
Things have not gone nearly as well for Rogers to begin this year. He was not horrible in his first start against San Francisco ––tossing five innings, with three runs (two earned), three strikeouts and one walk.
His second start was a disaster. Rogers lasted just 1.2 innings, allowing seven runs with three strikeouts and four walks against Philadelphia.
Rogers has walked nearly as many batters as he struck out over his first two starts. He’ll get a very difficult matchup with the Braves tonight.
The Braves’ lineup has struck out at just an 18.5% rate versus left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.
Rogers also gets a ballpark downgrade leaving Miami’s pitcher-friendly LoanDepot park and going into Atlanta’s Truist Park.
The pitch count is another concern as Rogers has not topped 74 pitches yet this season. He likely has a limit of 80-85 pitches today.
Poor form, a difficult matchup, a ballpark downgrade and a limited pitch count are many factors working against Rogers today. I will take under 5.5 strikeouts despite having to lay heavy juice.
On the other side of this game, Atlanta counters with right-hander Kyle Wright.
Wright was the #5 overall pick back in 2017, and the Braves have been waiting on him to figure it out since he originally made his MLB debut in 2018.
Well, it looks as though their patience has finally paid off as Wright has been outstanding in his first two starts of the season.
He threw six innings of shutout baseball against Cincinnati with six strikeouts and one walk. He allowed two runs in five innings against San Diego, striking out nine and running the pitch count all the way up to 92 pitches.
His strikeout rate sits at 35.7% after a pair of starts and he has walked just one batter.
The drastic jump in strikeout rate can be attributed to two things. His velocity is up 1.3 mph on his fastball from last year, and he increased the usage of his curveball which has also seen a velocity increase of 3.3 mph. He has thrown the curve 33.3% of the time this season versus only 14.3% last year.
Now, he gets a matchup against Miami, who has struck-out at a clip of 22.8% versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.
Their higher strikeout bats also hit at the top of the order giving Wright a good chance to face them three times if things are going well.
We should see 90+ pitches from Wright, and if his early season strikeout rate holds up he should easily go over 5.5 strikeouts. I was surprised to see this one at plus money.
Free MLB Prop Betting Card For Friday
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB games. We were able to find four pitchers’ strikeout props to target:
- Drew Smyly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120, Caesars)
- Reid Detmers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140, FanDuel)
- Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, DraftKings)
- Kyle Wright Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110, DraftKings)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!