Eys Breakers (4/25/22): MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today
MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Monday, April 25th, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!
Looking back on Friday, picks in this space were 3-1. We missed the sweep by a single Reid Detmers strike out. Joe Maddon pulled him after the 5th inning with only 70 pitches… frustrating to say the least. We move on, and hope to keep the success rolling into this week.
There are 7 MLB games on the slate this evening. Let’s dive right into the betting picks!
Free MLB Player Prop Picks For Monday
Kyle Gibson takes the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies as the Colorado Rockies come to town. Gibson has not been a huge strikeout pitcher in his career, but he did open the season with 10 strikeouts against the Oakland Athletics.
His second start came against Miami. He lasted only 4.2 innings, allowing 4 runs and striking out 6.
His most recent start came against the same Colorado team he faces today. He threw 6 innings in that one, allowing 3 runs and striking out only 3. Coors Field is the worst park in baseball for strikeouts due to the altitude, so I am willing to give him a pass on that one. In fact, that start is likely contributing to the great value on his line today.
Gibson has been over 90 pitches in each of the last two starts, so we can feel pretty good about the leash today.
The Rockies projected lineup has struck out at a rate of 24.8% versus right-handed pitchers since the beginning of last season. And remember, they play half their games at altitude where pitch movement is depressed. Last season, they struck out at 19.8% at home versus 25.4% on the road as a team.
I love this spot for Gibson today, and there is huge value taking him over 5.5 strikeouts at plus money.
The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox square off in another AL East showdown. These two teams just played each other last week.
Jose Berrios gets the nod for the Blue Jays in his second straight start against the Red Sox. I took him under 5.5 strikeouts last week against this Boston team, and he recorded a strikeout in his sixth and final inning to go over.
Berrios is a talented pitcher with decent career numbers, but he is not an elite strikeout pitcher. Early in the 2022 season, the strikeout numbers are way down (18.6%) and the walk numbers (10.2%) are up.
Now he is facing a dangerous offense for the second start in a row. It is worth noting J.D. Martinez has missed the last 4 games with a groin strain, but he may be able to return today. I am hoping Boston has a little more success against Berrios this time around and does not allow him to pitch as deep into the ballgame. I am going right back to the under again.
Next up, the Houston Astros take on the Texas Rangers in Arlington.
Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Astros. He is coming off a rough start against the Angels last time out. He allowed 6 runs in 4.1 innings while striking out 3 and walking 4.
He also walked 5 in the start before against the Diamondbacks.
Valdez has a strikeout rate below 20% this season and the walk rate is all the way up 16.1% through 3 starts. He had just a 21.9% strikeout rate last year and walks were still a problem at 10.1%.
He also has not thrown over 85 pitches in a start this season. So, we have a low-strikeout pitcher with control problems on a potentially short leash.
The matchup against the Rangers is not great for strikeouts either. In fact, they have the second lowest strikeout rate in MLB at 20.0% to start the 2022 season.
They are projected to send out 7 righties in the lineup today. Valdez has a 23.7% strikeout rate versus lefties with just a 20.3% strikeout rate to righties since the beginning of last year.
If the control is off again for Valdez and he cannot go over 85 pitches, he may not last deep into this game. Add in the low-strikeout opponent and I like the under in the spot.
Finally, we head out to Arizona where the Diamondbacks take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Walker Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers, and he has struggled a bit to begin the season.
I initially saw this matchup for Buehler and felt the line was a little low. However, after digging into the numbers on Buehler I am actually going to end up on the other side here.
Buehler has not recorded 6 strikeouts in any of his 3 starts this season. I thought that was a little odd, so I dug a little deeper. Turns out he failed to record at least 6 strikeouts in 6 of his final 7 starts of 2021 as well.
This is a guy with a reputation for big velocity and excellent “stuff”, so what is going on here?
The strikeout rate has been trending in the wrong direction over the last 3+ seasons. He had a 29.2% strikeout rate in 2019, followed by a 28.6% strikeout rate in 2020 and 26.0% in 2021. In the early going this year, the strikeout rate is all the way down at 16.2%.
It turns out the “stuff” has actually been declining over several seasons. His average fastball velocity is down to 95.2 MPH in 2022 versus 96.7 MPH in 2019. His average slider velocity is down to 83.7 MPH in 2022 versus 86.8 MPH in 2019.
Buehler has been a below average strikeout pitcher over his last 10 starts dating back to last year. Despite the good matchup with Arizona, I am taking the under today.
Today’s MLB Betting Card
That will do it for today’s MLB breakdown. We were able to identify four pitcher strikeouts props to target:
- Kyle Gibson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105, BetMGM)
- Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+106, FanDuel)
- Framber Valdez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115, Caesars)
- Walker Buehler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125, Caesars)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!