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Eys Breakers (4/26/22): MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Tue 4/26 11:49am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Tuesday, April 26th, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have another full MLB slate for this Tuesday evening with all 30 teams in action. 

There are some weather concerns in the eastern part of the country. According to  RotoGrinders’ Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth, Colorado/Philadelphia carries the most risk with light rain expected for most of the game, Baltimore/New York can also expect light rain throughout the game, and Miami/Washington can likely play dry with a late start.  

Free MLB Expert Player Prop Bets For Today

Let’s start in Pittsburgh where the Pirates take on the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Brandon Woodruff gets the start for Milwaukee after just facing this Pirates team last week. He had his best start of the season as he reached 95 pitches over 6 innings and did not allow a run. He recorded 9 strikeouts and 2 walks. 

Woodruff had a strikeout rate of 29.8% last season, but had only recorded 4 strikeouts through his first 2 starts this year. It was nice to see the swing-and-miss stuff return for him. 

Remember, spring training was shortened this year, so it took a few starts for many starting pitchers to get up to full strength. It appears Woodruff has found his form now, and there is no reason to believe he is not the well-above average strikeout pitcher he has been for most of his career. 

The matchup is excellent against Pittsburgh. Their projected lineup has 6 batters that struck out at 23.5% rate or higher versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. I expect Woodruff to turn in another dominant outing against them today and go over 6.5 strikeouts. 

We have another matchup we just saw last week over in Cincinnati where the Reds are taking on the Padres. 

Joe Musgrove gets his second consecutive start against the Reds. He faced them in San Diego last week with excellent results. Musgrove threw 89 pitches over 6.1 innings, allowing 2 runs with 7 strikeouts and 1 walk. 

Cincinnati’s lineup took a considerable hit over the off-season with several departures via trades and free agency. The early numbers for this offense have not been good. 

Their projected lineup today has struck out at 22.5% versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. In the early going this year, they lead MLB with a 27% strikeout rate as a team. 

Musgrove should be able to pitch deep into the game again, and I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts. 

It turns out there are many rematches of series from last week on this slate today. Colorado and Philadelphia square off again, but in Philadelphia this time after matching up in Coors Field last week. 

German Marquez gets a second crack at the Phillies after they touched him up in Coors. He allowed 4 runs over 6 innings, with 5 strikeouts and 2 walks. 

Marquez has not been a huge strikeout pitcher in his career, and his strikeout rate early this season is all the way down at 17.3%. He has not recorded more than 5 strikeouts in a start this season. 

The Phillies lineup comes with a great deal of power as Marquez saw in his last start, allowing 3 home runs. Hoskins and Schwarber carry the highest strikeout rates versus right-handed pitching, but they also both have elite ISO. There are 4 hitters in this lineup that carry an ISO of .245 or better versus RHP since the beginning of last season. 

Additionally, the weather in this one carries the highest rain risk of the day. Roth does not believe the chance for a delay is that high – which could potentially shorten Marquez’s outing – but Marquez will likely be dealing with light rain all game. This could potentially affect his ability to command his pitches and increase the chances of errors behind him. Either of these things could lead to an elevated pitch count and a short outing. 

There are a lot of risks here for Marquez, today, including the weather and a powerful Phillies offense. I will take the under on 5.5 strikeouts. 

 Finally, we head down to Atlanta where the Braves take on the Chicago Cubs. 

Max Fried takes the ball for Atlanta, coming off a dominant outing against the Dodgers. He mowed down the league’s best offense over 7 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts and no walks. 

His matchup today is nowhere near as difficult as his last one. 

Fried is not an elite strikeout pitcher, but he is above-average. His strikeout rate checked in at 23.7% last year and sits right around that mark this year at 23.9%. 

The Cubs projected lineup has some low-strikeout bats in it, but they also have 5 guys who have struck out more than 25% of the time versus left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. We would prefer to see at least 4 of Wisdom, Hermosillo, Happ, Villar and Contreras in the lineup today. 

Fried is in excellent form coming off a dominant outing, and I do not expect this Cubs team to give him too many problems today. He should pitch deep into the game, and I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts. 

That will wrap up today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four pitcher strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!