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Eys Breakers (4/27/22): MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Wed 4/27 11:53am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Wednesday, April 27th, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have another 15 games on the MLB schedule today, with two of them starting up in the early afternoon, and another in the late afternoon. 

It has been a rough start to the week, but we are going to get back on track today. Woodruff running up his pitch count and getting knocked around by the lowly Pirates had me tilting yesterday. 

It is always a great day when Shohei Ohtani is on the mound, so that is where we will start today.

Out in Los Angeles, the Angels take on the Cleveland Guardians. Ohtani is off to a ridiculous start on the mound this season with a 44.1% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate. 

In his last start, Ohtani dominated the Astros for the second time this season, with 12 strikeouts over six shutout innings. 

The pitch count is the biggest concern with Ohtani now that he has appeared to harness the walks. He has not thrown above 81 pitches this season. 

The Guardians are not the best matchup for strikeouts, but that is less concerning when we are talking about a guy with a 44% strikeout rate. The Astros are not a great strikeout matchup either and Ohtani has posted nine strikeouts and 12 strikeouts in two starts against them this season. 

Just trust the talent and take Ohtani over 6.5 strikeouts. 

The next spot to target is in Minnesota where the Twins host the Detroit Tigers. Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s giving us some rough conditions for baseball. 

Joe Ryan takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins. 

Ryan is a very talented pitcher with a 26.7% strikeout rate through 3 starts this season after posting a 30.0% strikeout rate last season in 5 starts. 

On paper, this looks like a great spot to target the over for Ryan’s strikeouts. The Tigers projected lineup has struck out a 24.8% rate versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. 

However, Ryan’s prop line initially opened at 5.5 strikeouts and has been bet up to 6.5 in some places. I think the 5.5 opening line was correct, so we are going to take advantage of the line movement. A single strikeout may not seem like a big deal, but it is a HUGE change in value in the pitcher strikeout prop market. 

Why would we want to target an under for a good strikeout pitcher in a good strikeout matchup? Well, Joe Ryan has a very drastic split in his strikeout rate. The Tigers projected lineup includes five batters that will swing from the left side of the plate against Ryan. It makes sense to see a confirmed Tigers lineup before taking this prop to make sure all five of those lefties are in the lineup. 

Ryan relies on his slider versus RHB, throwing it nearly 41% of the time and generating a 34% whiff rate. His slider usage drops all the way under 6% when facing LHB. 

Joe Ryan’s pitch type splits via the RotoGrinders Plate IQ tool.

He throws his fastball nearly 65% of the time versus lefties with a 20% whiff rate. He utilizes his changeup nearly 15% of the time to lefties and has generated just an 11% whiff rate on that pitch. The out pitch to lefties is a curveball, but he has only used it 13% of the time. 

His pitch usage has resulted in just a 16.2% strikeout rate to lefties since the beginning of last year. In his three starts this season, his strikeout rate to lefties is just 11.1%. 

Baez and Torkelson are the biggest threats to our under here as they are righties projected to hit in the middle of the lineup sporting strikeout rates above 30% to righties. If either of them were to get a day off, we could afford losing a lefty from the projected lineup. 

If we get the confirmed lineup with five lefties, or if Baez or Torkelson get the day off, I want the under on 6.5 strikeouts for Ryan. 

Next, we head out west to San Francisco where the Giants take on the Oakland Athletics. 

Paul Blackburn gets the start for the Athletics and has seen a significant jump in his strikeout rate this season compared to his career numbers.

Blackburn has posted a 25.5% strikeout rate in 15 innings this season, while he was below 15% for most of his career coming into this year. 

The additional strikeouts can be attributed to a jump in velocity. Blackburn has seen his average fastball velocity jump nearly 2 MPH to 92.4 MPH this season after being at 90.8 MPH last year. The curveball is also up over a full MPH on average. 

The matchup against the Giants is a good one for strikeouts. Their projected lineup has struck out at 23.2% versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. They have 4 batters with a strikeout rate above 23.5% versus RHP, with Bart striking out in nearly half his plate appearances. 

The books have not fully adjusted to Blackburn’s new velocity, and we can get the over on 3.5 strikeouts at plus money. 

Finally, we cross the border to Toronto, where the Blue Jays take on the Boston Red Sox. 

Ross Stripling takes the ball for the Blue Jays. He has managed just an 11.9% strikeout rate this season. He also has not topped 62 pitches in any start this season. 

There were no lines available at the time of publishing, but if Stripling’s strikeout line opens at 3.5, I will jump on the under. 

Free MLB Expert Player Prop Picks For Today

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three pitcher strikeout props, with another on our radar to hit as soon as it opens: 

Let’s get back in the green today. Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!