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Eys Breakers (4/29/22): MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Fri 4/29 12:10pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Friday, April 29th, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have another 15 MLB games on the slate today with nothing starting before 6:35pm ET. 

The most concerning weather spot is in Chicago, but according to RotoGrinders’ Kevin Roth it should start dry with rain chances increasing as the game goes on. He believes there is enough of a window to get an official game in which does not take pitchers out of play for me.

There are also rain concerns in Kansas City and St. Louis, but neither of those spots seem too concerning. 

The Chicago weather is noteworthy because that is where I want to start today. The White Sox welcome the Los Angeles Angels to town for a four-game set. 

Free MLB Betting Picks For Today

Lucas Giolito takes the ball for the White Sox and he is off to a great start this season. He has made only 2 starts so far this season, but the strikeout rate is all the way up at 44.1%. 

Giolito made his first start in Detroit where he went 4 shutout innings with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks. His second start came in Minnesota where he allowed 1 run in 4 innings with 9 strikeouts and 3 walks. 

He was up to 76 pitches in that second start so he should be able to reach 90 pitches today.

He dealt with poor weather conditions in each of those starts as well, so I am less concerned about that assuming we can get up to 6 innings for Giolito here.  I would consider a hedge if Roth were to up the delay risk for the middle innings in this game, but I want to jump on this line before the juice gets too heavy. 

The matchup against the Angels is not an easy one for Giolito as they lead MLB in wOBA and wRC+ early in this season. They do offer some strikeout upside though. 

They currently own 23.5% strikeout rate on the season which ranks 14th. If we back out to a larger sample though, there are some very juicy strikeout numbers to consider. 

The Angels projected lineup has struck out at a rate of 26.7% versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. Eight of nine batters have a strikeout rate above 24% in that sample, with four of them above 29% strikeouts. 

I will trust the larger sample and consider this a great matchup for strikeouts. Giolito has also twice been above a 32% strikeout rate for a season in his career, so, while 44% may not be sustainable, he has elite strikeout potential. 

I like Giolito to go over 6.5 strikeouts today. 

Next, we look to New York where the Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. 

Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies. He was brilliant in his last start against Milwaukee with 7 shutout innings and 9 strikeouts. He was up to 89 pitches in that start so he should be fully stretched out for this one. 

Nola has posted a 29.8% strikeout rate through 4 starts this season after posting an identical number last season. His walk rate has been elite over that time as well with a mark under 6%. 

The elite walk rate and huge ballpark upgrade pitching on the road should allow him to pitch deep into this game. 

The matchup is not ideal against the Mets as they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball on the young season, but I think the line has accounted for the difficult matchup. We frequently see Nola with strikeout props at 6.5, so getting this at 5.5 is a discount. 

I think Nola stays in this game long enough to go over 5.5 strikeouts today. 

On the other side of the game, the Mets counter with Tylor Megill. Megill has been outstanding this season after filling in on opening day for the injured Jacob deGrom. 

He reached 92 pitches over 6.2 innings of work in his last start against Arizona. He allowed only 2 runs while striking out 7 and walking 1. 

He faced this Phillies team already in his second start of the season. He made it through 5.1 scoreless innings in only 76 pitches, recording 5 strikeouts and no walks along the way. If he can feature the same control in this start he should be able to make it through 6 innings. 

Megill also gets the benefit of pitching in his home ballpark in this start versus facing the high-powered Phillies in their hitter-friendly home park in the last one. 

I like Megill to limit the Phillies offense again and go over 5.5 strikeouts today. 

Finally, we head out to Oakland where the Athletics take on the Cleveland Guardians. 

Aaron Civale gets the assignment for the Guardians. 

Civale has been a below-average strikeout pitcher in all four seasons of his career. His strikeout rate sits at 20.4% through three starts this year. 

He also has shown reverse splits in his career with just a 16.9% strikeout rate to right-handed batters since the beginning of last season. In his three starts this year, he has managed to only strike out 10% of RHB faced. 

The Oakland lineup projects to include only three lefties, and one of them, Tony Kemp, has only a 10.5% strikeout rate vs RHP since last year. 

Civale also has not thrown over 74 pitches or 4 innings in any start this season. I do not see him topping 85 pitches or 5 innings in this one, so I like the under on 4.5 strikeouts today. 

Expert Prop Picks For Friday

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We have identified four pitcher strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!

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