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Eys Breakers: MLB Prop Bets, Expert Picks For Today (5/11/22)

Keith Eyster Wed 5/11 12:29pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Wednesday, May 11, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo to begin betting baseball props now!

We have a split schedule in MLB today with games spread throughout the day. 

The only game with weather concerns seems to be in Minnesota. 

Free MLB Strikeout Prop Picks For Today

Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-118)

Let’s get started out west with the Los Angeles Angels taking on the Tampa Bay Rays. 

McClanahan has been excellent in his young career and seems to be building upon the success of his rookie season last year. Through six starts this season, he owns a 36.7% strikeout rate and 7.0% walk rate. 

McClanahan has produced a 16.4% swinging strike rate which ranks third in MLB this season. I think we have enough of a sample on the youngster to definitively declare him an elite strikeout pitcher. 

The leash is the main concern, but we know what to expect and have seen him produce plenty of strikeouts with the pitches he is allowed. He has thrown between 80 and 90 pitches in every start –– except his first one this season. He has recorded at least seven strikeouts in five of those six starts with his last time out against Seattle when he recorded five strikeouts the lone exception. 

The matchup today against the Angels is a difficult one, however, they might end up a little shorthanded tonight. Taylor Ward is dealing with a hamstring issue, and they also have four players on the COVID IL –– including both catchers. Ward sitting again would be a boost for McClanahan, as he has been excellent this season. 

Regardless of the lineup the Angels end up rolling with, I am trusting the talent of McClanahan. I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Tylor Megill Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-148)

Next, we look back east to the nation’s capital where the Washington Nationals host the New York Mets. 

Tylor Megill will make his seventh start of the season for the Mets. He has been very good since making an unexpected opening day start posting a 2.43 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. 

However, there are a few factors working against him today. First, he gets a ballpark downgrade by pitching on the road in Nationals Park rather than his pitcher-friendly home stadium. He also has to deal with a Nationals lineup that has only struck out 20.1% of the time this season, fourth lowest in MLB.  

The Nationals also project to send up six batters from the left side of the plate, and Megill has a pretty wide strikeout split. He has struck out 37.9% of the right-handed batters and only 19.4% of the left-handed batters he has faced this season. We see the same trend in a larger sample if we include last year’s data, although it is not as drastic. Last season, he struck out 28.2% of righties versus 23.9% of lefties. 

Megill has had at least 6 strikeouts in only half of his starts this season. One of those was against these Nationals on opening day, but they got off to a dreadful start this season. They have since turned it around, and are something close to a league-average offense as their 97 wRC+ suggests. I expect them to get better at-bats against him tonight. Give me Megill to stay under 5.5 strikeouts. 

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Finally, we look to Atlanta where the Braves take on the Boston Red Sox. 

Nathan Eovaldi takes the ball for Boston in his seventh start of the season. He has posted a 2.94 ERA with 26.3% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate. 

He gets a tough matchup with Atlanta, but the Braves have been striking out at an extremely high clip this year. They currently have a 25.3% strikeout rate, which is the third-highest rate in MLB. Their projected lineup has 5 batters that have struck out over 25% of the time versus right-handed pitching this season. 

Eovaldi will need to limit the hard contact and improve upon the uncharacteristic 3 walks he issued in his last start. His 4.4% walk rate is elite and I do not expect to see the control issues show up again as he has been under that mark the last 2 years. 

The leash is a positive for Eovaldi as well as he has thrown at least 95 pitches in four of his starts, and he has topped 100 pitches in two of them. 

He should be able to pitch deep into this game and rack up roughly a strikeout per inning. I think he goes over 5.5 strikeouts tonight despite the difficult matchup. 

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three pitcher’s strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!