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Eys Breakers: MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today (5/2/22)

Keith Eyster Mon 5/2 11:08am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Monday, May 2, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

The calendar flipped to May yesterday, so let’s take a quick look back at April’s results. We were up 3.5 units at the midway point of the month before hitting a rough stretch over the final two weeks. We got back on track last Friday with a 3-1 (+1.85u) day. Final results for April were 29-26 (-0.98u). 

My premium picks were 3-1 (+1.54u) over the weekend, so let’s continue the momentum this week as we kick off the month of May. 

We have a light slate today with only eight MLB games on the schedule. Two of them get started in the early afternoon, so we will just focus on the six games starting at 6:40pm ET or later. 

Free MLB Betting Picks For Monday

First up, the Miami Marlins host the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Pablo Lopez takes the ball for the Marlins and he is off to a fantastic start this season. In his last start, he threw 84 pitches over 6 scoreless innings with six strikeouts and 1 walk against Washington. 

For the season, Lopez owns a 27.1% strikeout rate with his walks all the way down at 4.7%. He threw 100 pitches in his third start of the season versus the Cardinals, so the pitch count is not a concern. 

The matchup today against Arizona is a great one. The Diamondbacks have struck out a 5th-worst 25.2% of the time to begin the 2022 season. Their .267 team wOBA and 75 wRC+ rank 2nd-worst in all of baseball. 

LoanDepot Park in Miami is one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball as well.

Lopez is set up with a great matchup against a high-strikeout team in a pitcher’s ballpark. He should be able to pitch deep into this game and go over 5.5 strikeouts today. 

On the other side of this game, the Diamondbacks will counter with Zac Gallen who is off to a great start this season as well. His ERA sits at 0.60 through 3 starts and he reached the 90-pitch mark in his last start against the Dodgers. 

The strikeout rate is slightly down from his career levels, but still sits at an above-average 25.0%. He has also done a good job of limiting walks this season as his walk rate sits at a career-best 7.1%. 

I am not concerned with the dip in strikeouts as his three starts have come against the Mets (twice) and the Dodgers. Both of those teams have struck out less than 22% of the time this season. 

The matchup for Gallen is excellent today against this Marlins team, and by far his easiest of the young season. The Marlins have struck out at a rate of 25.2% so far this year, 3rd most in MLB. Five hitters in their projected lineup have struck out over 26.5% of the time to begin 2022. 

Gallen also gets the benefit of the pitchers’ park on the road in Miami which should help him limit the damage. I expect Gallen to continue his great start to the season and go over 5.5 strikeouts today. 

The other spot I have interest in is out in Oakland, where the Athletics will take on the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Drew Rasmussen gets the nod for the Rays. 

Rasmussen began making his transition to the rotation in the middle of last season after initially pitching out of the bullpen as a bulk reliever. His strikeout rate was around average last season at 23.8%, but he was a high-strikeout guy in the minors. He posted a strikeout rate above 30% at every stop of his minor league career. He also had 17 innings out of the Milwaukee bullpen where he posted a 32.5% strikeout rate prior to the trade to Tampa Bay. 

Rasmussen finally had the breakout game in his last start when recorded 9 strikeouts over six innings against the Mariners. The minor league track record gives me confidence it was not a fluke and I expect a jump in strikeouts this year for Rasmussen. 

He currently sits at a 24.3% strikeout rate this year, and this is a great matchup for him to improve upon that. The Athletics have struck out at a league-leading 26.1% of the time this season. Their walk rate also ranks fourth-worst at 7.3%. 

The pitch count is a bit of a concern, as the Rays are notorious for limiting their starting pitchers. It was encouraging they did allow Rasmussen to throw 84 pitches, as he was dominating the Mariners. I think we can expect somewhere in that range again today. The elite matchup trumps the leash concerns for me. 

Rasmussen should be able to build on the success of his last start and go over 4.5 strikeouts today. 

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three pitcher strikeout props to target:

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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