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Eys Breakers: MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today (5/3/22)

Keith Eyster Tue 5/3 11:31am PT
Kyle Wright's MLB strikeout prop is on watch, as he owns an increased velocity and has limited walks.
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Tuesday, May 3, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have 16 games on the MLB schedule today with the Braves and Mets playing a double header. 

There is some weather lurking, so make sure to check out Kevin Roth’s weather report. Cleveland and Detroit look like the highest risk spots of the day. 

Free MLB Prop Picks For Today

We start in Baltimore, where the Orioles host the Minnesota Twins today. Camden Yards has played as a much more pitcher-friendly park than in years past after they moved the fences back this year. It is still extremely early to make final judgements on how it will truly play as the weather has been favorable for pitching as well, but the early returns have certainly favored pitching. 

Joe Ryan will make the start for the Twins coming off a dominant outing against Detroit his last time out. 

Ryan has flashed electric stuff in his young career as he owns a strikeout rate above 30%. He was all the way up to 90 pitches over seven innings in that outing against Detroit, so we can trust he has the leash to pitch deep into the game if things are going well. 

He gets one of the best matchups in baseball today against Baltimore. The Orioles own the second highest strikeout rate at 25.7% in 2022. Their projected lineup has six batters who have struck out over 25% of the time versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. They also have very little power to speak of as their team ISO sits at .097 in 2022, third-worst in MLB. 

I took Ryan over 5.5 strikeouts when this line first opened, but the line has since moved to 6.5 strikeouts. I am in for over 6.5 strikeouts as well as long as you can get it at plus money. 

Next, we head over to New York where the Mets take on the Atlanta Braves in the second game of a double-header. 

Kyle Wright gets the start for game two as he looks to continue his breakout season. 

Wright has been filthy to begin the year as he has posted a 37.0% strikeout rate through his first four starts. The underlying metrics all back-up his breakout as well. 

He is generating far more strikes this season both of the called and swinging variety. He ranks 5th in MLB in CSW% at 34.4%, a nearly 7% jump from last year. He is getting batters to chase far more often than last year as he ranks 11th in MLB with an O-Swing% of 37.2% – he was all the way down at 17.3% O-Swing% last year. 

These are elite numbers from a former number five overall pick. The pedigree has always been there for Wright, but he is finally realizing his potential. 

His matchup today against the Mets is not ideal, but it is the second game of a double-header and I think we have a pretty good chance of seeing a few guys sit in game 2. 

J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith are not in the lineup for game 1, so we will most likely see both of them in game 2. They would bring 31.8% and 25.3% strikeout rates vs RHP since the beginning of last year to the lineup. Nimmo was also out for game 1, but he only comes with a 19% strikeout rate. Marte, McNeil and Guillorme are the low strikeout bats in the lineup for the first game we wouldn’t mind seeing rested for the second game. 

Regardless of the Mets lineup, I am betting on the breakout for Kyle Wright and riding with the over 5.5 strikeouts. 

Out in Oakland, the Athletics host the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Paul Blackburn makes his fifth start of the season and he is looking like a breakout candidate this year thanks to a jump in velocity. 

His average fastball velocity sits at 92.5 mph this season after being closer to 90 mph in the previous five partial seasons. 

Blackburn’s strikeout rate has taken a considerable jump to 24.7%, up from 14.9% last year. He has always had good control, but he has taken it to elite levels so far this season with a 2.7% walk rate. 

He has thrown at least five innings in each of his first four starts, and he threw a season-high 84 pitches his last time out against San Francisco.

Blackburn opened the season against the Rays back on April 11th. He threw 71 pitches over five scoreless innings, recording seven strikeouts and one walk. 

The Rays projected lineup today has struck out a 23.3% clip versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. They have five batters who own a 24.8% strikeout rate or higher over that timeframe. 

Blackburn should be able to have similar success to his first start against them and go over 3.5 strikeouts. 

Eys Breakers For Tuesday

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three pitcher strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!