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Eys Breakers: MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today (5/4/22)

Keith Eyster Wed 5/4 11:54am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Wednesday, May 4, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have a split slate today in MLB. Nine games will get started this afternoon with another eight games set for this evening. 

Two double-headers will be featured to make-up the rain outs in Cleveland and Detroit yesterday. 

Free MLB Betting Picks For Today

Let’s get started in Milwaukee, where the Brewers take on the Cincinnati Reds. 

Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers coming off a dominant outing in Pittsburgh. 

Peralta got off to a rough start this season allowing nine earned runs in his first two starts. He rebounded against Philly with five strong innings and six strikeouts, before really returning to form in his last start against Pittsburgh. He was up to 92 pitches over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. 

Peralta had three consecutive seasons with a strikeout rate over 30% coming into this year. Despite his struggles early this season his strikeout rate still sits at 29.5%. The walks are up a bit at 10.3%, but he just turned in a no-walk performance his last time out. 

Today, he faces the Cincinnati Reds, who have been atrocious on offense this season. They rank dead last in wOBA at .267 with a wRC+ of 68. The second-worst offense (ARI) has a wRC+ of 80, so the Reds are 12%(!) worse than the second worst offense. They have also struck out at a league-leading 26.1% this season. 

Peralta should have no problem carving up this horrible offense as long as he can keep the walks in check. Give me the over on 6.5 strikeouts. 

Next, we look to Philadelphia, where the Phillies host the Texas Rangers. 

Zack Wheeler takes the ball for Philly in his fifth start of the season. 

Similar to Peralta, Wheeler really struggled to get going this year. He did not throw over 70 pitches in either of his first two starts and didn’t miss many bats. He flashed signs of life in his third start, but still allowed seven hits and four earned runs against Milwaukee. 

In his last start against Colorado, the dominance from last season returned, as he allowed only one hit in seven innings and struck out seven. However, he was uncharacteristically wild, issuing four free passes. Wheeler has held a walk rate of 6% or lower for three-consecutive seasons, so I do not expect the battles with control to continue. 

He was up to 90 pitches in that start against Colorado, so hopefully the lengthy leash he has been afforded in Philadelphia has returned for good this season. 

Wheeler gets a matchup with a below-average Texas offense today. The Rangers have not struck out a ton this season, but a larger sample tells us there may be more strikeouts in this lineup than we have seen. Their projected lineup has six batters who have a 24% or greater strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last year. 

We are banking on Wheeler continuing to display the swing-and-miss stuff that led to a 29.1% strikeout rate last year, while limiting the walks to his typical 6%. If he is able to put those two things together, he should be able to pitch deep into the game, and turn in a great outing against Texas. I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts today. 

Finally, we head to Chicago for the cross-town series between the Cubs and White Sox. 

Lucas Giolito takes the mound for the visiting White Sox. 

Giolito missed a couple starts with an abdomen issue, so this will only be his fourth start of the season. The good news is he just showed us he was fully stretched out after throwing 99 pitches in his last start against the Angels. 

Even better news, Giolito has displayed elite stuff this year with a 37.9% strikeout rate through three starts. His strikeout rate was down last year at 27.9%, but he was over 32% in each of the two seasons prior. There is enough track record here to believe 30%+ strikeouts is sustainable. 

He also gets the benefit of some brisk 40-degree temperatures and the wind blowing in at Wrigley. 

The matchup against the Cubs is outstanding, as their projected lineup has struck out at a rate of 26.3% versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. 

After a hot start to the season, the Cubs offense has fallen off sharply. They rank 10th this season in wOBA, but they posted 21 runs on April 24th against Pittsburgh, which is overly inflating their production this year. Over the last 10 games, the Cubs rank dead last with a .245 wOBA and have struck out at a league-leading 29.8%. 

Giolito should dominate this overrated offense in these conditions and go over 6.5 strikeouts. 

Today’s Eys Breakers

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We have identified three pitcher props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!