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Eys Breakers: MLB Props Preview & Expert Best Bets Today (5/6/22)

Keith Eyster Fri 5/6 11:37am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Friday, May 6, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

Well, we were supposed to have 15 MLB games on the schedule today, but weather is wreaking havoc on that plan. 

Three games have already been postponed, and we have at least three more with serious concerns. Make sure to check out Kevin Roth’s weather report over at RotoGrinders for the most recent updates on the games in Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland. 

We lost Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer from our available options with the postponements in New York and Philadelphia, respectively. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber were sure to be of interest, but weather in Cleveland is severely threatening their availability as well. Let’s get to the betting picks!

Free MLB Player Prop Picks For Today

Down in Atlanta, the Braves host the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Eric Lauer takes the mound for Milwaukee, and, wow, has he been incredible this season. 

Two starts ago he showed out on national television, and it would have been easy to write off his 13-strikeout performance as heavily aided by an extremely pitcher-friendly umpire that night. However, he followed it up with another brilliant outing, striking out 11 Cubs over seven innings of one-run baseball. 

Back-to-back double-digit strikeout performances had me digging into the underlying metrics for Lauer, and it seems he is truly breaking out. 

The velocity is up on the fastball and cutter significantly from just 2 seasons ago. His average fastball velocity sits at 94.1 mph this season, up from 91.8 mph in 2020. His average cutter velocity has seen an even bigger jump to 91.5 mph, an increase of over 4 mph from his average cutter velocity of 87.3 mph in 2020. 

In addition to the increased velocity, he is also throwing both of his breaking balls more frequently. The usage on his slider is 20.3% this season, while it was down at 11.5% last year. He has deployed the curveball 20.8% of the time this season versus 14.5% of the time last season. He has almost completely ditched his change-up, using it less than 2% of the time. 

This new version of Lauer is generating far more chases and swings-and-misses. His O-Swing% is up 9% from last year and his swinging strike rate has seen a jump of over 3% this year to 13.8%. 

Lauer has a difficult matchup today in Atlanta, but the Braves have been prone to the strikeout versus left-handed pitching this year. Their confirmed lineup has a strikeout rate of 26.8% when facing southpaws this season. 

I am surprised to see Lauer’s strikeout prop at only 5.5 and still sitting at even money. The books have not yet bought into the breakout for Lauer, but I will believe what I am seeing with his increase in velocity and new pitch mix. I want the over on 5.5 strikeouts for Lauer, and I want to take him all the way up the ladder with his alternate strikeout props as well. 

Next, we head over to Boston where the Red Sox will host the Chicago White Sox. 

Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for Boston. 

Eovaldi has turned into the most consistent piece of the Boston rotation as he has been outstanding again this season. 

Through 5 starts he has posted a 2.51 ERA while flashing career-best skills. He sits at a 28.1% strikeout rate and 2.6% walk rate. 

His matchup against the White Sox is not ideal for strikeouts, but they have struggled overall offensively. Their team wOBA ranks just 25th at .283 and they have walked at the second lowest rate in baseball.

Eovaldi should be able to keep traffic off the base-paths and pitch deep into this game. He has made it through 7 innings in each of his last 2 starts and I expect him to be able to match that today. He has had at least 6 strikeouts in four of his five starts, and the length today should help balance out the low-strikeout opponent. I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts today. 

Finally, we head over to Houston, where the Astros take on the Detroit Tigers.

Luis Garcia makes his fifth start of the season for Houston. 

The Astros have been fairly cautious with Garcia this season as he did not top 75 pitches through his first three starts. 

He did finally make it up to 86 pitches in his last start against Toronto. He lasted 6 innings and allowed 2 solo home runs with 5 strikeouts and 1 walk – a very solid outing considering the opponent. 

Today, he gets a much easier matchup against the Tigers. They have struck out at the 8th highest rate in baseball at 24.3%. They have also posted the 5th lowest wOBA at .282. Their projected lineup today has struck out at 25.9% versus right-handed pitching this season and includes 6 batters with a strikeout rate of 26% or higher. 

Garcia is now fully stretched out and should be able to reach 90 pitches today. I think he goes over 5.5 strikeouts in a great outing tonight. 

Friday’s Eys Breakers

That will do it for today’s breakdown of a weather-heavy MLB slate. We were able to identify three pitcher strikeout props to target and want to take advantage of a possible breakout starting pitcher as well with some alternate strikeout lines:

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!