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Eys Breakers: MLB Strikeout Prop Bets, Expert Picks For Today (5/17/22)

Keith Eyster Tue 5/17 11:49am PT
Nathan Eovaldi Cy Young Odds
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Tuesday, May 17, 2022, Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!

We have 18 games on the MLB schedule today. The first games of three separate double-headers get us started this afternoon with the White Sox/Royals, Cardinals/Mets and Diamondbacks/Dodgers all double-dipping today. 

Weather looks to be mostly clear throughout the slate, but there are two games worth monitoring. Game 2 in Kansas City and the Pirates/Cubs game in Chicago have some level of risk according to Kevin Roth, RotoGrinders’ Chief Meteorologist.

I am targeting the Cubs game, in part due to the weather, but there is a small risk of a delay here. Let’s break it down.

Expert MLB Strikeout Prop Picks For Today

J.T. Brubaker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Brubaker will make his eighth start of the season for the Pirates. 

He has pitched to a 5.34 ERA this season, although his 3.95 xERA and 4.36 xFIP view him more favorably. He has been above-average with a 24.3% strikeout rate, but he has struggled with control as his 11.8% walk rate shows. 

The weather is a slight risk, but it is also very favorable pitching conditions if the rain holds off.

“Scattered light showers in the area, I expect they’ll just play it a little bit wet. Winds gently in from center-ish at 5-10mph with a cool temp,” Roth said regarding the weather.

He puts the risk on the game at “Green/Yellow” which I feel is safe enough to target this prop. Any delay would be a problem when targeting the over on a pitcher’s strikeout prop. I want to be transparent about what we are dealing with today, and if you have a lower risk tolerance feel free to pass on this one. 

The matchup for Brubaker is the main reason I am comfortable with a little risk. The Cubs have struck out at a 24.2% rate this season, which ranks 8th in MLB. They have 5 batters in their projected lineup that have struck out over 27% of the time versus right-handed pitching this season. 

I think Brubaker can reach 5 strikeouts in just 4 or 5 innings, so we don’t need that big of a window. The wind blowing in at Wrigley Field reduces home run risk significantly, so he should be able to limit the damage against him. Give me Brubaker over 4.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Nathan Eovaldi Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-133) 

Eovaldi is an excellent starting pitcher who has been incredibly consistent over the last 2+ years in Boston. He has pitched to a 3.15 ERA with 25.8% strikeouts against just 4.3% walks this season. However, Houston is one of the most difficult matchups for an opposing pitcher.

The Astros strikeout at just a 21.5% rate and walk at a 10% rate. Their 116 wRC+ ranks third in MLB. The projected lineup today is even better versus right-handed pitching with a strikeout rate of just 19.8% and a walk rate of 10.8%. 

I think the Astros work deep counts today against Eovaldi and run his pitch count up. I don’t see him making it past 6 innings meaning he would need at least a strikeout per inning to reach 6 strikeouts. With Houston’s low strikeout rates that will be a very difficult task. Give me the under on 5.5 strikeouts for Eovaldi tonight. 

Reid Detmers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)

Next, we look to Arlington, where the Texas Rangers take on the Los Angeles Angels. 

Reid Detmers returns to the mound for the Angels after tossing a no-hitter in just his 11th career start last time out. 

Detmers is a prized pitching prospect and I think the Angels will be very careful with him after extending him to 108 pitches in his no-hitter. He has been under 80 pitches in 4 of his 5 other starts this season, with 88 pitches in his fourth start being his previous season high. 

In addition to the leash concerns, Detmers has not yet seen the elite strikeout rates he posted in the minors translate to the big leagues. He struck out just 2 in his no-hitter and he owns just a 16.8% strikeout rate on the season. 

Texas has also been a high-contact team this season with a strikeout rate of just 21.7%. They have an even lower strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching. The projected lineup today has struck out at just a 20.1% rate vs LHP this season. 

Even if Detmers gets back to around 90 pitches, I think it will be difficult for him to record 5 strikeouts against this lineup. The fact he was extended further than the Angels probably liked in his last outing is just a bonus. I like Detmers to stay under 4.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Dylan Bundy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)

Finally, we head out to Oakland, where the Athletics take on the Minnesota Twins. 

Dylan Bundy is expected to return from the COVID IL to make his sixth start of the season for Minnesota. It has been a mixed bag for Bundy to begin the season. His season started off well as he only allowed 1 run through his first three starts, but it has taken a drastic turn since then. 

He allowed 15 earned runs in two disastrous outings following his promising start to the year. Then, he tested positive for COVID and has missed his last two starts. According to Manager Rocco Baldelli, Bundy will be on a limited pitch count Bundy as he works his way back into shape. 

It is a soft landing spot for Bundy as Oakland has been the worst offense in baseball so far this season. Their 76 wRC+ and .260 wOBA both rank dead last in MLB. Typically that would mean Bundy would have a good chance to pitch deep in the game, but his pitch count will prevent him from doing that. He also only has a 20.6% strikeout rate on the year, and has only recorded at least 5 strikeouts in 2 of his 5 starts this season. 

I think we see around 65 pitches for Bundy tonight and he stays under 4.5 strikeouts. 

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four pitcher’s strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!

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