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Eys Breakers: NBA Player Props Preview and Bets for Today

Keith Eyster Mon 3/14 10:53am PT
(CJ McCollum) Image Credit: Andrew Wevers/ Imagn.

Sports betting expert Keith Eyster dives into analyzing NBA player props and explores bets to target Friday in his new article series “Eys Breakers.”

Hello again everyone! Before we get started breaking down some NBA picks, I must first get something off my chest… BASEBALL IS BACK! 

MLB and its players were able to reach an agreement yesterday afternoon, so we will indeed have a baseball season. Make sure to check out this article throughout the season as we will have plenty of MLB picks for you! 

Tonight, it will be all about the hoops again. We have 10 games to try and locate some value, so let’s dive in. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are the team I am most interested in today. They have a great matchup at home against a fast-paced Charlotte team. Brandon Ingram missed the last two games with a hamstring strain, and has been ruled out again tonight.

CJ McCollum saw a huge workload in the absence of Ingram taking a very hefty 27 shots against Orlando and 21 shots against Memphis. New Orleans placed McCollum in health and safety protocols yesterday and he has been ruled out tonight. So who is going to soak up all that usage with Ingram and McCollum out? 

Jonas Valanciunas is the most talented scorer remaining for New Orleans as he averages nearly 18 points per game. This is a situation similar to Booker and Paul being out for Phoenix. We saw the Suns feed the offense through big man DeAndre Ayton in that situation and I expect a similar bump for JoVal today in one of the best big man matchups in the league. 

The books have priced JoVal aggressively today, but there is still some meat on the bone. He scored 30 points in his last game and that was with McCollum playing. He has the upside to match that number again today. 

Who else is going to score? Let’s lean on the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool for some insight. 

Herb Jones and Naji Marshall show the biggest usage bumps with Ingram and McCollum off the court this season in a limited sample – Hart and Alexander-Walker were also removed  as they have been traded away. I am not sure I can trust Herb or Naji today as they are not exactly prolific scorers. 

Devonte’ Graham sees a significant 2.9% usage bump in this scenario. He is projected to jump into the starting lineup and be the primary ball handler this evening. I like that for a nice boost to his scoring opportunities. 

RG projection shows good value on Graham’s points prop with him projected for 18.82 points tonight versus a line of 15.5. Booked. 

The Phoenix Suns were featured in the last article with their injury situation. Devin Booker has since returned to action, but Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson remain sidelined. Booker has posted the following assist totals in games without Chris Paul: 12, 5, 7, 9. It is worth noting Cameron Payne also missed the first three games of those four, but Booker posted 9 assists alongside Cameron Payne’s 10 assists in the last game. 

The line for Booker’s assists sits at just 5.5, and we can get it at even money on BetMGM. I like his chances to get at least 6 assists tonight and we get a great price. 

Finally, let’s take a look at Cleveland who is without All-Star big man, Jarrett Allen. Evan Mobley has been crushing in his absence. 

Mobley posted 20 points, 17 rebounds and 4 assists against Toronto when Allen left with a finger injury after 10 minutes of action. Most recently, he followed it up with 22 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists against Indiana. He has a tougher matchup against Miami tonight, but I do not believe the sportsbooks have been aggressive enough with his props for his role without Allen. 

Let’s take a look at his Points + Rebounds + Assists line since he has been contributing in all three categories. 

RotoGrinders projections agree the line is a bit soft. I think he has massive upside even in a difficult matchup, so I will be adding this one to the card. 

I also want to dive into Lauri Markkanen’s performance in these two games without Jarrett Allen. I need to point out he will forever be unofficially known as “Mark Cannon” thanks to my good buddy TheLuuch’s appearance on RotoGrinders CrunchTime earlier this week.

Carlucci sharply touted “Mark Cannon” pointing to a possible uptick in usage without Allen, and that is exactly what we saw. Markkanen has posted 22 points and 12 rebounds, followed by 21 points and 5 rebounds in the two contests without Allen. Have the books reacted appropriately? 

The line looks a bit soft, particularly on FanDuel who remains a point under the market. Shout out Odds Compare for finding us a great value here! 

Again, Miami is a great defense and not a team I like to pick on, but the Cavs have an injury to a big producer allowing us to get good value on their props. 

Let’s recap the unique injury situations where we were able to identify some value for this big NBA slate: 

Thank you for reading. I am completely open to any feedback or ideas you all may have, so please do not hesitate to reach out on Discord or Twitter. Best of luck today everyone!

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