A Look Ahead: Free College Football Betting Picks For Week Zero
College Football Betting analyst Alex Hardin gives his best “Week 0” picks, as he looks ahead to the beginning of the 2o22 NCAAF season! Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting now!
We are less than three months away from the start of college football and the books certainly did not hesitate at releasing early sides and totals.
I can’t remember having this many lines available so early, but it gives us a great chance to lock in some perceived value on various games based on what transpired during the offseason.
I do think the explosion of the transfer portal and the general shake-up across college football (mainly due to NIL impacts) makes it a difficult thing for the oddsmakers to respond to.
They generally do not like to move their power rankings massively for teams based solely on offseason moves (because generally good teams stay good and bad teams stay bad – which is true). However, I do think there are some favorable Week 0 numbers on the board – here are my three favorites!
NCAAF Picks – Week 0: Sides And Totals
Top Play – UConn at Utah State
My absolute favorite Week 0 side or total is taking the Huskies as four-touchdown underdogs on the road at Utah State. This may seem crazy on the surface, not only because of how terrible UConn was last year, but due to how solid Utah State was. However, the more we dig, the more we have to love the points in a game that I show in my numbers should be lined at closer to 19 or 20.
I am showing UConn covers the number here nearly 70% of the time with nearly an 18% edge versus beating a -110 betting line. While there is a chance I am a tad high on UConn, and a tad low on Utah State, I have to trust my process and push the edges in whatever form they come.
So why do we like a team that was 1-11 last season? First of all, the stink of Randy Edsall has finally departed from the program, who struggled to replicate any of the magic he produced at Connecticut from 1999-2010.
Jim Mora Jr. steps in, who is a much different personality and should have the energy to lead a positive rebuild and pull in better overall talent. Mora started this transformation by bringing in the former dual-threat 4-star Penn State recruit Ta’Quan Roberson to be their quarterback.
Sure, he had some mixed results when given a chance in the past, but he gets a step down in competition, and certainly has the athleticism/pedigree combo to be quite impactful for this team. Roberson actually has a great wide-receiver room to work with, having the likes of Keelan Marion and Cameron Ross at his disposal.
They do lose workhorse Kevin Mensah, but Nate Carter is a serviceable running back. There is reason to believe the offense will be much more dynamic this season – an adjective you would not have muttered in the past few years when describing this team.
While UConn does lose some talent on the defensive line, they have a strong linebacking corps to anchor that unit. Overall, Uconn returns around three-fourths of its overall team production from last season. There is certainly some continuity, despite the changes in the coaching staff.
On the flip side, Utah State returns barely over 50% of their overall production from last season, which puts them in the bottom 10% in college football. The Aggies are hit hardest on the defensive side, and even though Logan Bonner returns at QB, they lost most of their punch at wide receiver (Devon Thompkins, Derek Wright, and Brandon Bowling all departed).
When you take a high level look at this game, four touchdowns is just way too many for Utah State to be favored by (the numbers bear this out too, it’s not just a subjective look).
Accounting for how much they lost, and the improvements Uconn should make (at least offensively), we have to ride with the Huskies +28 here. I could really see this line moving closer to +21 over the course of the next few months when the trajectory of each team is more evident.
- Free NCAAF Pick: UConn +28 (-110), Multiple Sportsbooks
Wyoming at Illinois
The premise for this play largely leans on the projected decline of the Wyoming defense, mostly due to a mass exodus of talent blamed on the iron-fist style of head coach Craig Bohl. Not only did they lose their starting cornerbacks to Oklahoma and UCLA (which is a big deal), there were defections across the team as a whole. They ended up losing four defensive starters to P5 transfers, in addition to losing their best two offensive skill position guys (Valladay to ASU, Neyor to Texas).
This likely slides their top-50 defense to somewhere below average in FBS, and will likely change the way they are forced to call games offensively as well. As long as their traditionally solid defense keeps things close, Wyoming loves to just pound the rock. However, in a road matchup here versus Illinois, I have doubts that their front seven will be able to hold up versus a year two Brett Bielema team that should show some improvement.
Illinois brings in a new OC in Barry Lunney, who ran a pretty entertaining run-heavy offense at UTSA over the last few years. With Chase Brown, Reggie Love, and Josh McCray all back for the Illini, I like their chances to move the ball effectively versus this iteration of Cowboys’ defense. While I do expect Wyoming’s offense to be fairly poor again this year, tailback Titus Swen is a certified dude and should give this offense some hope. Andrew Peasley (transfer from Utah State) will likely be the starter at QB for the Cowboys and he can’t really be worse than Levi Williams or Sean Chambers has been.
It’s never comfortable taking an over with two likely poor offenses, but this total is lined towards the Wyoming defense of the past few seasons – not what is likely to be the product on the field come the fall. Let’s get on the over here before it starts creeping towards 50 as we get closer to kick-off.
- Free NCAAF Pick: Over 46.5 (-110), DraftKings
New Mexico State at Nevada
First UConn and now New Mexico State? I know what you are thinking. But keep in mind, we are betting numbers here, not teams. So while it’s uncomfortable, we want to win. I will start this off by saying, yes New Mexico State is likely the worst team in FBS out of 131 teams. However, teams like this can cover spreads, illustrated by its 7-5 ATS mark last season despite being putrid.
People don’t want to bet on them, which often creates a scenario where there is value to be had and I think this is one of them.
New Mexico State hired Jerry Kill as their new coach and they “miracled” a top-90 recruiting class, which is certainly a coup for them and shows that maybe there is a chance for improvement.
Nevada had a great offense last year, however, it lost pretty much everything that made them what they were. Quarterback Carson Strong is gone, as is head coach Jay Norvell, who bolted to Colorado State and took some players with him. Collectively, Nevada only returns roughly a quarter of its overall production, making them a candidate for extreme regression.
Their new head coach is Ken Wilson, a 20-year assistant coach, which for me, anecdotal evidence, suggests these types of hires rarely work out. Wilson very much could be in over his skis in year one. They cobbled together some less than impressive skill players to jam into gaping holes (QB Shane Illingworth from OSU and WR BJ Casteel from Arizona for example), but it likely won’t be enough.
Nevada should be quite poor on both sides of the ball and likely will be one of the worst 20 teams in college football. NMSU and the points here is the play, in what should be an ugly game we are just banking that stays relatively close.
- Free NCAAF Pick: New Mexico State +13.5 (-110), DraftKings