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A Look Ahead: Free 2022 College Football Futures Picks

Alex Hardin Mon 6/13 1:55pm PT
Our NCAAF betting expert likes Texas as a long-shot pick to win the College FootballNational Championship.
Image Credit: Imagn

College Football betting analyst Alex Hardin gives his best 2022 team futures picks, as he looks ahead to the beginning of the NCAAF season! Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting now!

Last week we took a look at some Week 0 sides and totals, but this week we are going to dive into a much crazier market: Team Futures! While these are a bit more “feel” than sides and totals in general, we can still use information we have to identify value. Also, what is more fun than having a 100-1 ticket live late in the season!? Let’s take a look at a few different markets today, finishing up with some longshot NCAAF championship takes.  

Free College Football Team Futures Picks

Team Win Totals

The offseason hype train continues for the Trojans, moving the juice all the way to +140 on the under here, which I will gladly snatch up. While it’s hard to see USC not scoring points offensively, I have concerns that their defense struggles – especially early with some tricky road games in Stanford and Corvalis within the first four weeks. Really, when you look at USC’s schedule, its two biggest games (UCLA and Utah) are both on the road. There is not much margin for error here for the over, given that we get a push at 9. Everyone seemingly loves USC this year – I just don’t quite see it.

PAC-12 South Division Winner

While I agree with the combined division win equity of Utah (+200) and USC (-140), I do not think it is efficiently distributed across those two teams (USC implied as the strong favorite). This is mostly due to the insane hype surrounding USC this year with Lincoln Riley coming to town, as he brings some top-tier transfers (Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and more).

However, I think Utah is the better team, and will certainly take 2-1 on what I think is a weighted coin flip that slightly favors the dog. Utah returns stud quarterback Cameron Rising, who looks to build on a 10-win season, where they lost by only three to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. I trust Utah to be more of a complete team on both sides of the football and the game between USC/Utah is a midseason class in Salt Lake City (tough road game for USC). 

ACC Championship

I think there are legitimate reasons to think Clemson might not bounce back to their pre-2021 level, given that they lost both coordinators, they have seemingly have not competed as well as other blue chip programs in the NIL market, and still don’t have a proven solution at quarterback. Having Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson for most of the last decade has really spoiled this team and we saw last year what can happen if you pair their elite defense with an offense without a capable signal caller – they had some major struggles, especially early.

If not Clemson, then who? For me, it’s Miami and NC State, who are both on an upward trajectory. I prefer Miami, in a vacuum, between the two (and will be taking a future on Miami elsewhere), but NC State has more value on their ACC championship number. Much like Clemson, the strength of NC State will be their defensive unit that has Top 10 upside and they do have a returning quarterback that could make some strides. 

NCAAF Championship Winner

Alabama (+200), Georgia (+340), and Ohio State (+450) are the short favorites here, and I have no interest in betting any of those three teams at those numbers. In fact, nothing really under 80-1 jumps out to me, with Clemson, Texas A&M, USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Oregon all being overvalued in my eyes.

I am going to focus on the longer odds, on teams where I will actually get paid off appropriately for being right. Also, quick tip – make sure you are looking at FanDuel for CFB futures, they are hanging much better odds than most books. Here are four of my favorites:

The primary reason I like Miami, as compared to some teams in this range like Ole Miss (who I do love in a vacuum), is that they have an established (returning) quarterback and a fairly clear path to the college football playoffs. The Hurricanes need to win one of their road games against Texas A&M or Clemson, and they need to make (and win) the ACC championship. Since they are in opposite divisions as Clemson, they would have a shot at revenging an in-season loss to the Tigers potentially. Also, Miami is a team that media sentiment will really get behind if they start rolling off wins which does help a bit for them getting through some subjective stages of the process.

Really, the driver for this play, is my love for quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who was extremely impressive as a freshman and I think he can be absolutely elite this season. While the Hurricanes lost some experience at receiver, I think the young guys coming up are better. Returning pass-catcher Key’Shawn Smith is likely to be the most productive of the bunch. The Henry Parrish/Jaylan Knighton combo at running back should bring a near top-tier thunder and lightning combo.

Really, there is a lot to like about the offense, however their defense is more of the unknown, and will be the determining factor of how far this team can go. Is “The U” back? No, not quite yet – I don’t think. But they have a shot to do some damage this season and make me re-evaluate that stance midseason.

This is a no-play for me in the 40-1 to 50-1 range posted at most books, but I will certainly bite on 80-1 at FanDuel. Cameron Rising is back for year two leading the Utes, who projects to be a really solid well-rounded team again this season.

The Pac-12 has been really down lately, and I am not buying USC or Oregon this season to the extent they are being touted by the media, leaving me with Utah as my favorite team in the conference. While they likely would need to go undefeated to have a shot at the playoff, they have a quite favorable schedule compared to these other long shots.

They have a great barometer game early in the season for Utah, playing at Florida in the swamp. If the Utes take that game, I think we are looking at a 5-0 Utah team heading into the UCLA week in early October. 

Given all of the hype surrounding Texas this offseason, and their futures ranging from 50-1 to 75-1 at most books, I thought I would likely have nothing on the Longhorns.

However, Texas still sits at 100-1 at FanDuel, which is pretty solid value for a team that has so many pieces and parts that COULD be something special. This team has absolute insane talent at the skill positions on offense, with Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy being the two headliners at RB and WR. ‘

Ultimately, this offense (and team) will go as far as freshman quarterback Quinn Ewers can take them. Yes, Hudson Card is still technically battling for the job, but Ewers is the upside play and he needs to win the job for this team to have a shot at being CFB playoff-worthy.

We should know pretty early in the season where the Longhorns stand, as Alabama visits the city of Austin in September. In terms of the rest of their schedule, they have a pretty good draw with most of their tough games (Oklahoma, Baylor) being at home. 

Once we get past 100-1 range, we know we are taking some real shots in the dark. However, anytime I can find a potential top-5 offense or defense this long, it’s definitely worth a deeper dive.

Regardless of how the Vols end up doing results wise, I think one thing I am confident in is their offense is going to put up a ton of points. This Josh Heupel offense just simply works in college football (as we saw for years at UCF, winning a fake national championship in the process).

In year two, with a lot of talent, it could be quite special. Hendon Hooker is back again at quarterback and will have plenty of weapons at his disposal in Cedric Tillman, Jalin Hyatt, and USC transfer Bru McCoy.

Obviously, being in the SEC, and having to play both Alabama and Georgia, is a detriment to their chances of making the playoff, but elite losses can be forgiven, if you take care of business elsewhere.

The most likely outcome is that Tennessee has a great season and wins 7 to 8 games (which given their schedule is great) – but this number is worth taking a small shot on the Vols realizing their right tail outcome.

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