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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday

Keith Eyster Tue 8/9 11:49am PT
Our MLB experts are backing the over on Ohtani's strikeout prop on Wednesday.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today – Tuesday, August 9, 2022.

We have 16 games on the MLB schedule today, with the White Sox and Royals playing a double-header. Game 1 of the double-header kicks off the slate this afternoon, while everything else starts up at 7:05 ET or later. 

There are some weather concerns around the league, with Baltimore and Philadelphia looking to carry the most risk. I will be paying close attention to Philly in particular, because I have interest in both starting pitchers there, but I will be avoiding them until we have a better idea of what the weather will be like. Kevin Roth will have all the updates over on the weather page at RotoGrinders. 

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Tuesday

Shane Bieber Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Let’s get started in Detroit, where the Tigers take on the Cleveland Guardians. Shane Bieber takes the mound for the Guardians in his 21st start of the season. 

Bieber has put together another fantastic season with a 3.39 ERA that is fully supported by a 3.36 SIERA and 3.13 xFIP. The strikeout rate is above average at 25.1%, although that is down significantly from previous seasons, and the walk rate is an elite 5.6%. 

Bieber has been over 6.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 20 starts this season. One of those was back in May when he faced this Tigers team and recorded 10 strikeouts in 7.0 innings. He faced them in his very next start and only recorded 5 strikeouts, but he did pitch very well with only 1 run allowed in 8.0 innings. Bieber has been excellent over his last two starts with at least 6.0 innings and eight strikeouts in each of them.  

As far as matchups go, they do not get any better than being a right-handed pitcher facing Detroit. The Tigers .262 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season is the worst in baseball. It is a full 11 points worse than Oakland who ranks 29th, and 26 points worse than Pittsburgh who ranks 28th. Additionally, they have struck out at 24.5% versus righties, which is the 5th most in MLB.

He already has one ceiling start against Detroit this season, and another one would not be a surprise at all. I like Bieber to go over 6.5 strikeouts today. 

Carlos Carrasco Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Next, we look to Citi Field in New York, where the Mets host the Cincinnati Reds. Carlos Carrasco will make his 22nd start of the season for the Mets. 

Carrasco has put together a solid season for the Mets with a 3.82 ERA. His underlying estimators suggest he has been unlucky this season as both his 3.63 SIERA and 3.50 xFIP are lower than his ERA. He has dealt with an inflated .330 BABIP this season despite a career BABIP of .308. Both his 23.3% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate are better than league average. 

Carrasco has only been over 5.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 21 starts this season. However, he got off to a slow start with the strikeouts this year and he has hit the over much more consistently as his season has progressed. He has been over 5.5 strikeouts in 8 of his last 13 starts. 

Today, he gets a matchup with a Reds team that has traded away two of their better hitters in Brandon Drury and Tommy Pham. The Reds going into Citi Field is also one of the biggest ballpark downgrades an offense can receive. The projected lineup against Carrasco today has struck out at a massive 28.9% rate versus right-handed pitching this season. We just saw Carrasco’s rotation mate Chris Bassitt dominate this lineup with 8 strikeouts in 8.0 innings last night. 

Carrasco should be able to limit the damage against this weak Reds lineup and go over 5.5 strikeouts today. 

Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Finally, we head out to Oakland, where the Athletics take on the Los Angeles Angels. Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for the Angels in his 19th start of the season. 

Ohtani has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season with a 2.83 ERA, a ridiculous 35.9% strikeout rate, and a well-above average 5.7% walk rate. His 2.37 SIERA and 2.29 xFIP both not only support his ERA, but suggest he has actually pitched even better than his results. 

Ohtani just faced this Oakland team in his last start. He allowed 3 runs (two earned) over 5.2 innings and recorded seven strikeouts. While Ohtani was under 7.5 strikeouts in his last start, he had been on a ridiculous run of strikeouts prior to that one, posting double-digit strikeouts in six-straight starts. 

The matchup against Oakland is elite, so I am willing to look past him falling just short in his last start. The A’s have been one of the worst offenses in baseball with an 80 wRC+ and a .274 wOBA that ranks second-to-last in MLB. They have a strikeout rate of 23.5% on the season, which is the seventh-highest rate in the league. 

I think he gets back to his elite strikeout way. I like Ohtani over 7.5 strikeouts today.  

Today’s Betting Card

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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