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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday

Keith Eyster Tue 8/16 11:54am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today – Tuesday, August 16, 2022.

We have 15 games on the MLB schedule this evening with all 30 teams in action. Weather looks mostly clear across the league with very slight risk in Pittsburgh being the only situation to monitor thus far. 

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Tuesday

Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130) 

Let’s get started in New York, where the slumping Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees have lost 8 of their last 10, and they have not scored more than 3 runs in any of their last 6 games. Despite their recent slide, they still hold a 10-game lead over the visiting Rays. 

Tampa Bay will send Jeffrey Springs to the mound for his 16th start of the season. Springs has put together a fantastic year with a 2.56 ERA, 3.20 SIERA, and 3.21 xFIP. Both his 26.8% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate have been well-above league average.  

Springs first threw 80 pitches in an outing this season back on May 21 after making five bullpen appearances and three abbreviated starts prior to that. Over his 12 starts including that May 21 outing, he has been over 4.5 strikeouts in all but one start. 

He gets a difficult assignment today going into Yankee Stadium to face a powerful offense. However, I previously mentioned the Yankees recent struggles, and they also project to be without one of their best contact bats as D.J. Lemahieu is dealing with a toe injury. Torres and Judge project to bat atop the New York lineup and both struggle with change-ups, a pitch that Springs deploys nearly 46% of the time to right-handed batters.

The projected lineup does have a low strikeout rate of 19.9% versus lefties this year, but Donaldson, Hicks and Higashioka all strike out more than 23%, in addition to the strikeout potential at the top of the order.  

He will need to limit the damage to get through the middle innings. I think Springs goes over 4.5 strikeouts. 

Jose Quintana Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Next, we look to St. Louis, where the Cardinals host the Colorado Rockies. The Cardinals will send trade deadline acquisition Jose Quintana to the mound for his 23rd start of the season and 3rd with the Cardinals. 

Quintana has had a resurgent season with a 3.37 ERA. He has benefited from some good fortune with the results as indicated by his 3.96 SIERA and 3.69 xFIP, but he has still been solid overall. The strikeout rate has been slightly below average at 21.3%, while the walk rate has been solid at 7.3%. 

Quintana just faced this Colorado team in his last start in Coors Field. He had a great outing as he pitched 6.0 innings with only 2 runs allowed and 6 strikeouts. He has been over 4.5 strikeouts in 6 of his last 10 starts, and 3 of the 4 times he was under he finished with 4 strikeouts. 

Facing the same opponent in back-to-back starts is not ideal, but he gets the major benefit of pitching in St. Louis today rather than Coors Field. Colorado has been abysmal away from their hitter-friendly home park with an 82 wRC+ and a .288 wOBA that ranks 6th worst in baseball among visiting teams. They still don’t strike out a ton – 22.1% on the road – but still significantly more than they strike out at home – 19.1%. 

Quintana also saw his highest pitch count of the season in his last start, which may be a sign St. Louis will be willing to let him pitch deeper into games as they fight for a division title down the stretch. He finished with 103 pitches last time out after averaging only 86.5 pitches per start with Pittsburgh. 

I think Quintana can shut down this Colorado offense traveling to St. Louis and make it through at least 6 innings again today. Give me the over on 4.5 strikeouts. 

Jakob Junis Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Finally, we head out to San Francisco, where the Giants take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jakob Junis will make his 12th start of the season for the Giants. 

Junis has gotten roughly league average results with a 3.78 ERA that is supported by a 3.84 SIERA and 3.80 xFIP. The strikeout rate checks in below league-average at 21.9%, while the walk rate has been a very solid 6.0%. 

Junis has been under 4.5 strikeouts in 7 of 11 starts this season. He does not pitch deep into games as he has averaged just 4.7 innings and 78.2 pitches per start. He has failed to make it through 5 innings in each of his last four starts. 

Junis gets a matchup with an Arizona offense that has been slightly below average overall, with a 92 wRC+ and a .305 wOBA that ranks 21st in MLB. However, they do make contact at an above average clip with a strikeout rate of 22.0% that ranks 13th lowest in the league. 

Arizona should be able to make enough contact to chase Junis from the game before the end of the 5th inning again. I like him to stay under 4.5 strikeouts. 

Free Player Props Betting Card For Today

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets!