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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday

Keith Eyster Tue 7/12 11:31am PT
Syndergaard makes today's MLB prop picks.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today — Tuesday, July 12, 2022.

We have 16 games on the MLB schedule today including a double-header in Cleveland between the White Sox and Guardians. Game 1 of the double-header gets underway this afternoon, with everything else taking place at 6:40 ET or later. 

The weather in New York is threatening enough to keep me off of Gerrit Cole in a great matchup, unfortunately. There is also some risk in Washington, D.C. and Minnesota, so make sure to check out the weather page at RotoGrinders for all the updates today. 

Free MLB Props Picks For Today

Mitch White Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)

Let’s get started in St. Louis, where the Cardinals host the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Mitch White will make his 8th start of the season for the Dodgers. He has been good since being thrust into the Dodgers rotation due to multiple injuries. He has pitched to a 3.38 ERA with 23.4% strikeouts and 9.0% walks on the season. His 3.94 SIERA and 3.96 xFIP suggest he has been a little fortunate with his results, but still solid overall. 

White has recorded at least 5 strikeouts in only 3 of his 7 starts this year. His strikeout rate as a starter sits at 21.9%, which is significantly lower than the 28.2% strikeout rate he posted in 9.1 innings to begin the year out of the bullpen. 

He also has a difficult matchup today against St. Louis. The Cardinals have been above average on offense with a 105 wRC+ and a .314 wOBA that ranks 13th in MLB. Their 20.6% strikeout rate is the 8th lowest in baseball. 

White was up to 102 pitches in his last start, but he did not throw over 80 pitches in any of his other 6 starts. It would not surprise me to see Dave Roberts pull back the reins a little today and keep him under 90 pitches.  

There is plenty to be concerned about with the matchup and pitch count for him today. I like White to stay under 4.5 strikeouts. 

Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Next, we head out to Anaheim, where the Los Angeles Angels take on the Houston Astros. Luis Garcia will make his 16th start of the season for the Astros. 

Garcia has put together a very solid season with a 3.81 ERA. He has strong underlying metrics including a 3.53 SIERA and 3.61 xFIP that both strongly support his results. The strikeout rate is well-above average at 25.7% and the walks are at a career-best 6.5%. 

Garcia has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 9 of his 15 starts this season, including 4 of his last 5 starts. His swinging strike rate sits at a healthy 13.8%, which ranks 9th in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched this season. 

He gets a matchup today with the Angels who have struck out at 26.3%, which is the highest strikeout rate in MLB. They have been a below average offense this season with a 96 wRC+ and a .303 wOBA that ranks just 23rd in baseball. They have four batters in their projected lineup that have struck out over 30% of the time versus right-handed pitching this season. 

Garcia has proven to be well-above average at missing bats, and today he gets the most strikeout prone offense in the league. Give me the over on 5.5 strikeouts for Garcia tonight. 

Noah Syndergaard Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

On the other side of this game, the Angels will counter with Noah Syndergaard, who will be making his 14th start of the season. 

Syndergaard has had a solid season in his return to the mound this season after missing the last two seasons with injury. He has pitched to a 3.84 ERA with 18.8% strikeouts and 5.5% walks.  

The strikeouts are down significantly from Syndergaard’s prime and he is facing an elite Astros offense, but there are several factors that have me targeting his over today. In his last two starts, Thor has seen an increase in his strikeout rate. He recorded a season-high 8 strikeouts in his last start against the Marlins, and he tied his previous season-high with 7 strikeouts against the White Sox in the start prior. 

The thing that jumped out in those two starts was a massive increase in slider usage for Syndergaard. He threw his slider just 17.8% of the time in his first 11 starts of the season. Over his last two starts, he used the slider a whopping 36.7% of the time. His strikeout rate in those two starts was a staggering 31.9%. There is no guarantee he continues to deploy his slider at that rate, but he is clearly a different pitcher if he does. 

The other factor here is the matchup. I almost never target overs on strikeout props for pitcher’s facing the Astros. Their 117 wRC+ is the second best in the league and their .328 wOBA ranks fourth best. They also strike out at just 19.8%, which is the fourth lowest rate in MLB. 

However, they will be without their best hitter and MVP candidate, Yordan Alvarez, as he hit the Injured List yesterday. He joins Michael Brantley on the IL, who is an elite contact hitter himself. Their likely replacements, J.J. Matijevich and Jake Myers, both strike out at well-above average rates. The projected lineup has struck out at 22.7% versus right-handed pitching this year, which is well above Houston’s season average. 

If Syndergaard continues to deploy his slider around 35% of the time, he has a chance to smash this prop of 4.5. If he reverts back to the pitch mix he used in his first 11 starts with more fastballs and change-ups, we still have a chance to cash this one. He recorded at least 5 strikeouts in 5 of those first 11 starts. 

The watered-down Astros lineup, and chance of continued increase in slider usage have me on the over 4.5 strikeouts for Syndergaard. 

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!