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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB & NFL Player Props To Bet On This Weekend

Keith Eyster Fri 9/9 12:16pm PT
Our betting experts are betting on Derek Carr's player props line set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for Friday and offers NFL props picks for Week 1 – Friday, September 9, 2022.

What a statement game from the Buffalo Bills on opening night against the defending champs to kickoff the NFL season last night! We hit our first NFL prop of the season as Stefon Diggs cleared 5.5 receptions before the end of the first half. Hopefully the sign of a fantastic season ahead. 

Free MLB and NFL Player Props Picks

Of course, we still have nearly a month left in the baseball season, plus the playoffs. You will begin to see a mix of the two sports in this space through the end of the baseball season. Today, I have a couple strikeout props and a couple NFL props for Sunday. 

Let’s get started with the baseball since that goes down tonight. 

Nick Lodolo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)

In Milwaukee, the Brewers have fallen off dramatically in the second half of the season. They are just 16-20 since trading away closer Josh Hader, and have fallen eight games behind the Cardinals in the division. Today, they host the Cincinnati Reds and get a difficult matchup against young lefty Nick Lodolo. 

Lodolo has a solid 3.95 ERA through 14 major league starts this season, with an even more impressive 3.51 SIERA and 3.72 xFIP. The strikeouts check-in at a healthy 28.3% rate, while the 9.3% walk rate has caused some inconsistency. 

Lodolo has been over 6.5 strikeouts in half of his 14 starts this season and his matchup today gives me confidence he can do it again. The Brewers projected lineup has struck out at a 25.5% rate versus left-handed pitching this season, and not a single batter in the lineup has struck out less than 22.9% versus lefties. The team has struck out at a collective rate of 25.8% versus lefties which is the third highest rate in baseball. 

Typically, leash is a concern when we are targeting young pitchers, but that is not the case for Lodolo. The Reds have been willing to let him go deep as long as things are going well. Lodolo has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last two starts, and at least 96 pitches in 8 of his 14 starts. 

I think he has success against this struggling Brewers team and goes over 6.5 strikeouts today. 

David Peterson Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105) 

Next, we head down to Miami, where the Marlins take on the New York Mets. David Peterson will make his 18th start of the season for the Mets. 

Peterson has had a solid season with a 3.32 ERA that is supported by a 3.54 SIERA and 3.31 xFIP. The strikeout rate has been well-above league average at 27.1%, while the walk rate is inflated at 10.1%. 

Peterson has been over 6.5 strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts, and 2 of those starts were against the Miami squad he faces today. In back-to-back June starts against the Marlins Peterson recorded a start of 5.1 shutout innings with 7 strikeouts, and a start of 7.0 innings with 2 runs and 8 strikeouts. 

The Marlins 28.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching is the highest in baseball, and their 6.6% walk rate versus lefties is the worst in baseball. The projected lineup for the Marlins today has struck out at a 29.6% rate and walked at a 6.1% rate. The matchup could not be any better for Peterson.  The free-swinging Marlins should help mitigate Peterson’s shaky control and allow him to pitch deep into the game again. I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts for the third time this season against Miami. 

Now, let’s shift gears over to the gridiron as Week 1 gets going in full force this Sunday. There are many exciting matchups on the slate, but one I am most looking forward to is an AFC West showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. 

Derek Carr Over 265.5 Passing Yards (-115) 

The Raiders made a huge trade to bring Davante Adams over from the Packers and pair him with his old college teammate, Derek Carr. The move gives the Raiders a very talented group of pass catchers with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow already in the fold. 

Carr is coming off his most productive season as a professional as he threw for 4,804 yards last year. He topped 265 yards in 8 games last season, including the playoff loss to the Bengals. Now, he adds arguably the league’s best wide receiver to his available weapons and he has Waller healthy after he missed 6 games last year. 

The matchup is a difficult one on paper as the Chargers added Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson to a defense that ranked 19th against the pass in DVOA last season. The good news is the Chargers played at one of the fastest paces in the league last year, and they have an offense that can put points up in a hurry. 

The Chargers are likely the better team here and I expect them to play with the lead. This should force the Raiders into a pass-heavy game script where Carr can lean on his talented pass catchers to keep them in the game. 

I think we see at least 35 drop backs from Carr if we get that game script. Carr averaged 7.67 yards per pass attempt last season, and that was without Waller for a third of the season and Adams wasn’t on the team. I expect that number to take a significant step forward this season. Give me Carr to throw for over 265.5 passing yards in this one. 

Tony Pollard Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-145) 

Finally, we look at the Sunday Night Football game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys. This should be an exciting game between two fast-paced teams. In fact, last season they were the top two fastest teams in situation-neutral pace. There should be a ton of plays run in this game with two talented offenses on the field. 

The Cowboys receivers room will look different for this one with Amari Cooper now in Cleveland, and Michael Gallup still working his way back from injury. Gallup has not yet been ruled out for Sunday night, but it would be a surprise if he played and he likely wouldn’t be able to log a full complement of snaps if he did. 

There have been rumors Tony Pollard could see some usage at wide receiver, but even if he doesn’t this number still seems too low. The Bucs have been susceptible to receptions from the backfield in recent years and Pollard has been productive in that role in the past. He had over 16.5 receiving yards in 9 of the 15 games he played last season.

The pace of this game and potential negative game script should be plenty for Pollard to go over 16.5 receiving yards in Week 1. 

Eys Breakers Betting Card

That will do it for today’s breakdown. We were able to identify two strikeout props for MLB, and a passing yards prop and receiving yards prop for NFL: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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