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Tides’ Takes: Free Expert Picks For Today- MLB Player Props (8/25/22)

Timothy Buell Thu 8/25 8:06am PT
Jacob deGrom's Cy Young odds fall due to injury.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for Thursday’s MLB games.

Happy Thursday everyone! Throughout the week, I will be giving out a few of my favorite MLB prop bets that you can find for free right here at ScoresAndOdds.

Make sure to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Thursday

The Rockies are not your traditional high-strikeout team.  However, they don’t face Jacob deGrom every game. In four starts since coming off the IL (in early August), he has had two games where he had double-digit strikeouts – and both of those games he did it in under 80 pitches.

In his last start, against Atlanta, deGrom was allowed to get up to 95 pitches, so I am assuming it’s full go with deGrom now. I am excited to see him really blow hitters away with impunity. I think that Vegas has to set this line under 10, because models have to use the Rockies data, which shows them only striking out 18.8% of the time against right-handed bats. I am going to bet on the all world talent of deGrom, especially at plus money.   

In a very small sample size, Dunn has a 16.4% K rate and a 13.1% BB rate (13 IP). Although, when you dig a little deeper, it is in line with his career data. In a 116-inning sample, he has a 20.1% K rate and a 15.2% BB rate. 

I see a pitcher with massive control problems which will drive up his pitch count and lead to an early exit. Hoskins and Schwarber do strike out at an above average rate but they also have a walk rate above 10%.  Go further into this projected Phillies lineup and you will see four batters with a K rate under 20%. 

Dunn has very little room for error to hit this over prop if the Phillies can show just a little patience against his very shaky control. Dunn, coming off a shoulder injury, was maxed out at 87 pitches last game against the Pirates. I’m not confident in the least he gets to that many pitches today.  

Home Run Props Picks

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