Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Wednesday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today — Wednesday, June 29, 2022.
We have a split schedule in MLB today with 8 games getting started at 4:10 ET or earlier. That leaves us 7 games to focus on this evening that start at 7:05 ET or later.
Weather is clear across the league with only a stray shower or two around Denver to keep an eye on, and even those are unlikely to impact the game.
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MLB Strikeout Props Picks For Wednesday
Cal Quantrill Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-158)
Let’s get started in Cleveland, where the Guardians take on the Minnesota Twins in a battle of teams vying for the top of the AL Central division.
Cal Quantrill will make his 14th start of the season for the Guardians. He has pitched to a respectable 3.76 ERA this season, but the numbers under the hood are not pretty.
His 4.94 SIERA and 4.82 xFIP are both a full run higher than his ERA. He is striking out only 15.1% of batters faced, which is significantly below league average.
The juice on the under here is significant, but I am confident it is worth paying for. His swinging strike rate sits at just 7.7% this season and his CSW% is just 23.8%. Quantrill has been over 4.5 strikeouts in just 3 of his 13 starts so far this season.
The matchup today is fairly difficult as well. The Twins have been significantly above league average on offense with a 113 wRC+, and their .325 wOBA ranks 5th in the league. They also are better than average at making contact with a strikeout rate of 22.0% that ranks 14th.
Quantrill has failed to make it past the 5th inning in each of his last 2 starts. I think the regression continues today and he struggles against the Twins. Give me Quantrill’s under 4.5 strikeouts.
Dylan Bundy Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
On the other side of this AL Central showdown, the Twins counter with Dylan Bundy. He will be making his 13th start of the season.
Bundy has struggled to a 4.80 ERA this season with a well-below average strikeout rate of 17.1%. His control has been his one plus skill with his walk rate sitting at 4.7%. He continues to struggle with hard contact to both sides of the plate, with his fly ball rate to righties leading to far too many home runs.
Bundy has recorded at least 4 strikeouts in only 5 of his 12 starts this season. He has struck out just 13.8% of lefties this year and he projects to face 5 of them today.
Cleveland is the highest contact team in the league with a strikeout rate of just 18.6% on the season. They have been a slightly below average offense overall with a wRC+ of 97, but their extreme contact skills can make life difficult for opposing pitchers.
Minnesota has also shown a propensity to pull Bundy from games early if things are not going well. He has been under 80 pitches in 8 of his 12 starts this year, and he has worked through 6 innings in just 4 starts.
Cleveland should have no problems putting the bat on the ball facing a low strikeout pitcher like Bundy. With a little batted ball luck or a couple home runs, they should be able to chase Bundy from the game before the end of the 6th inning. I like him to stay under 3.5 strikeouts.
Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Out in Anaheim, the Los Angeles Angels take on the Chicago White Sox. Shohei Ohtani will make his 13th start of the season for the Angels. He is coming off a dominant outing in which he carved up the Royals for 13 strikeouts in 8 shutout innings.
His overall body of work this season is impressive with a 2.90 ERA, 33.0% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.
Ohtani has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 6 of his 12 starts this season. He has reached double-digit strikeouts in 4 of those starts. I believe this line is at the right number, but the plus money on the over makes that the value side here. I am always willing to roll the dice a little on an elite strikeout pitcher with a reasonable line.
The matchup is a difficult one for strikeouts against a high-contact White Sox team, but I trust the skills of Ohtani in any matchup. He has double-digit strikeout upside anytime he takes the mound. The White Sox have been right around league average for the season with a 99 wRC+ and .304 wOBA. The lineup does lean right-handed heavy which is helpful for Ohtani and his 35.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed batters.
The leash for Ohtani has also been getting extended recently. He threw 108 pitches his last time out, his highest mark of the season, and was at 100 pitches 2 starts prior to that against Boston. He has thrown over 90 pitches in 7 of his last 8 starts.
Ohtani also seems to prefer pitching at home in Los Angeles. He owns a 2.45 ERA at home in his career versus 3.41 on the road.
I am trusting his elite strikeout ability and taking Ohtani over 6.5 strikeouts.
Eys Breakers Betting Card
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:
- Cal Quantrill Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-158, Caesars)
- Dylan Bundy Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145, BetMGM)
- Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110, FanDuel)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!