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Tides’ Takes – PGA Betting Picks and Outright Predictions for 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Timothy Buell Wed 2/1 7:43am PT
Jordan Spieth golf betting picks.

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for every PGA event.  

For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on tournament winners for the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Congratulations to Max Homa who was able to chase down Sam Ryder and overcome a five stroke deficit in the final round to take home the title.  Now the tour continues its California swing and heads up the coast to Pebble Beach!  

Much like we saw a couple of weeks ago at the American Express, this will be a tournament that is played at three different courses.  Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hills, and Monterey Peninsula Shore Course.  This is also a Pro-Am, so we will be seeing easier pin setups and longer rounds in the first three rounds. This is a 54-hole cut with all players playing at least one round at every course, and then the final round will be played at the host course, Pebble Beach.  

All three courses are incredibly short, all are around 7000 yards.  All three are Poa greens.  Monterey Peninsula plays at a par 71 while Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hills play at a par 72.  Spyglass Hill is technically the hardest of the three courses, while Monterey Peninsula is the easiest.  That can all depend on the wind however.  As of right now there doesn’t seem to be any wind until Sunday when gusts could reach up to 20 miles per hour. 

The other note I wanted to make about this event is the abysmal strength of the field.  Pebble Beach is now getting squeezed by its place in the schedule.  There are alternative events happening elsewhere and there are elevated events coming up in the schedule.  This has left Pebble Beach as a less desired event by many of the top pros.  Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, and Viktor Hovland headline the event and are all coming in around 12-1 at the major sportsbooks.  The defending champion, Tom Hoge is currently sitting at 22-1.  

Some of the key stats that I will be looking for this week are strokes gained approach, greens in regulation, and strokes gained putting on poa.  Also the key proximity yardage this week is 100-125 yards, so I want players that can get dialed in with their wedges. 

Free PGA Betting Picks: 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Jordan Spieth 12-1 PointsBet

I simply can’t ignore how weak this event is.  There are only three golfers inside the top 20 of the OWGR and on top of that this is a really good course fit for Spieth.  Spieth also has amazing course history here at Pebble Beach.  He has finished 2nd, T3, and T9 in his last three starts and won this event back in 2017.  In ten times that he has played here he has never missed a cut, and has six top ten finishes.  Looking a little deeper into his stats at Pebble Beach he has gained over a stroke on approach in 8 of those 10 events.  He has also gained with the flatstick in 8 of those ten events.  He really checks all the boxes for success. 

Maverick McNealy 20-1 BetMGM

McNealy comes into this event making seven straight cuts. In those events he doesn’t have a finish worse than a T31 and has 3 top-10’s in that stretch. In four career starts at the AT&T Pebble Beach he has two top 5 finishes, including a second place finish in 2021.  Originally from the state of California and playing his college golf at Stanford University he should feel right at home at all three of these courses. 

Beau Hossler 80-1 BetMGM

It feels like I have been waiting for Beau to break through forever now.  He almost got his first career win here last here when he had a share of the lead going into Sunday and ultimately fell short finishing in 3rd.  Hossler has come close a couple of times in his career and ultimately has not been able to put up a strong Sunday finish.  So far this season he has made the cut in 6 of his 8 events and has been a strong putter throughout his career. He is another native California player that should have no issue on Poa greens.  

Official Betting Card

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